Berks passes 20% positivity rate for COVID cases, first time in latest surge

Aug. 13—Berks County passed the 20% positivity rate for COVID-19 cases in the latest weekly Pennsylvania Department of Health Early Warning Monitoring Dashboard.

It was the first time over 20% in a weekly report in the second omicron surge, but Berks still maintains its status as a low-risk county for COVID, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The state dashboard shows Berks down by six cases from the previous week with a new-case rate of 111 per 100,000 population and a 20.6% positivity rate.

Pennsylvania overall was a minus 530 cases, 130 new cases per 100,000 and 17.2% positivity.

Allegheny County — the location of Pittsburgh and second most populous county in Pennsylvania at 1.2 million — accounted for most of the state decline, off 276 cases from the prior week.

Berks is now nearly surrounded by moderate risk counties. Only Lancaster remains low risk.

There are 10 high-risk counties in Pennsylvania, all mainly rural and lightly populated. There are 17 counties considered low risk. The remaining 40 counties are moderate.

Berks and Lancaster are the only counties among the 10 most populous that are low risk.

Case rates and positivity are big parts of the calculation but there are other factors, such as hospitalizations and access to hospitals.

It's unclear how often the CDC revises the county guidance.

For example, adjoining Chester and Montgomery counties have had lower case rates and positivity rates for weeks but remain moderate risk. It's unclear if access to hospitals plays a factor.

That is an issue playing out in Chester County, at least, with Tower Health's closing of two hospitals that later were bought by another health system and are expected to reopen.

The positivity rates in the remaining adjoining counties are similar to Berks, but the case rates are noticeable higher.

The county most resembling Berks in population and its distribution, a cousin county, is York. Both have a centrally located city that thins to suburbs and rural areas, though the Berks urban core is far more populated.

York has a case rate of 179 per 100,000 and 21% positivity for its moderate risk designation.

Vaccinations

Meanwhile, a bump in COVID-19 vaccinations in Berks County that ran for two weeks is definitely over and a low level of vaccinations has resumed.

The past week's statistics from the Pennsylvania Department of Health:

—255: Residents getting "fully vaccinated" in the past week for a total of 251,736 over the entire 20-month episode of inoculation opportunities.

—339: Residents getting either their first booster or a third full dose for the immunocompromised in the past week, for a total of 120,262.

—540: Residents getting either a second booster or a fourth full dose for the immunocompromised in the past week, for a total of 24,816.

The numbers were up slightly from the previous week, but less than half of a two-week surge from late July.

The county's population is 429,000, according to the 2020 census. No one who dies of any cause is purged from the vaccination rolls.

More statistics

Other COVID statistics for Berks from the CDC:

—25: Hospital admissions in the past week, a third week of declines.

—2,776: Tests recorded in the past week, top week in the second omicron surge.

Case levels are three times higher in Berks than at the same time in the previous pandemic summers of 2020 and 2021.

Pennsylvania overall is averaging 203 COVID hospital admissions per day in the past week, top week in the surge, and has recorded 119 deaths in the past week, nearly most for a week in the surge, according to the CDC.

By the weekend, the CDC COVID statistics are more up to date than the midweek state health department update.

Pennsylvania is no longer updating cases, hospitalizations and deaths based on vaccination status.

National look

BA.5 has become the most dominant strain of COVID since its parent, the original omicron, ran rampant through the U.S. population at the beginning of 2022, according to the CDC.

The highly contagious strain is responsible for nearly 90% of all cases in the country, and roughly the same in the mid-Atlantic, according to CDC information.

BA.5 hit in earnest about five weeks ago and pushed up the national seven-day case average to 129,889 on July 16.

Since then, there has been a steady erosion of that number, with the latest figure Saturday of 103,105, about 20% off the peak.

The CDC in the past week has ditched some of the isolation protocols and ditched the 6-foot distancing guideline.

Pennsylvania remains better off in terms of risk factors than most states east of the Mississippi River.

Many states south and west of the Keystone State are nearly blanketed in the brown shading, which designates high-risk on the CDC map. Delaware, with three counties, is entirely high risk, as is nearly all of New Jersey.

New York and New England are almost entirely green, or low risk, like Berks, with the exceptions of the high-risk New York City and extends to all of Long Island.

The official case numbers are about a seventh of the peak of the initial omicron surge that started the year. Many people who had the original omicron have also been afflicted by one or more of the highly contagious variants.

Health officials are concerned that an accurate picture of the spread isn't available due to widespread at-home testing and no testing.

Free testing site

The state health department encourages residents to drop in to the COVID community-based testing sites operated in partnership with AMI Expeditionary Healthcare, including the Berks site in Bern Township.

AMI is offering three forms of free testing: point-of-care tests where tests are performed and results are analyzed on-site; the distribution of at-home antigen testing; and continued administration of the nasal passage swab PCR testing.

The Bern Township site is at 2561 Bernville Road.

The site is expected to be open at least until Sept. 4, running 10 a.m. to 7 p.m. Tuesday through Friday and 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. on Saturday.

Officials said the Do Your Part Berks website remains a good source of information: https://www.doyourpartberks.com.