Bermuda under tropical storm warning as close call with powerful Earl looms
Bigger, stronger and faster, Hurricane Earl intensified overnight Wednesday into Thursday as it neared Bermuda and became the strongest tropical cyclone of the year in the Atlantic basin. AccuWeather forecasters expect Earl to continue strengthening and become a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 111-129 that will be powerful enough for some impacts to be felt as far away as the East Coast of the United States.
As of early Friday morning, Earl was about 124 miles east-northeast of Bermuda, was churning in a north-northeastward direction at 17 mph, up from 10 mph on Thursday, and 8 mph on Wednesday, and was packing 100 mph sustained winds, making it Category 2 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This was an increase from Thursday evening when Earl was a Category 1 Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph.
In addition to its strengthening, Earl's size consistently expanded Wednesday into early Friday with hurricane-force winds extending 80 miles out from its center and tropical-storm-force winds reaching 205 miles from the eye.
Given the size and strength of the storm, officials placed the islands of Bermuda under both a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch on Wednesday, and AccuWeather forecasters expect some storm impacts to begin later Thursday and overnight into Friday as the storm closes in. The hurricane watch was canceled late on Thursday evening, but the tropical storm warning remained in effect.
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In a statement released on Wednesday, the Bermuda government said it was closely monitoring Hurricane Earl and had taken the measure of posting signs warning of high surf along some of its south shore beaches. Officials went on to say that they would continually assess the threat and issue further warnings as needed.
The center of the system was passing to the east of Bermuda on Friday morning, but it was still making its presence felt as atmospheric conditions continue to allow for strengthening.
"Wind shear will become less of a factor in terms of impacting Earl's strength," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. "It will be in a zone of lower wind shear, but it will also be moving along with the winds, rather than fighting them."
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As a result, the lower and upper portions of the storm will become more aligned. Earl will not only begin to strengthen, but the system may also do so rapidly from Thursday to Friday.
"There will be some impacts on the islands of Bermuda in the form of building seas, rough surf, gusty winds and some rain from Earl, but the potentially destructive winds and torrential rain are likely to pass to the east," Rayno said. Gusts frequenting 40-60 mph (60 to 100 km/h) are likely with a StormMax™ of 70 mph (115 km/h).
A general 1-2 inches (25-50 mm) of rain is expected, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 5 inches (125 mm). Downpours can lead to localized flooding in poor drainage areas.
Hurricane Earl will churn far away from the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, but due to its strength and size, its impacts will still be felt along the coastline.
"Earl is going to pass more than 800 miles east of the coast of North Carolina. However, hurricanes that are the size and strength of Earl can send swells outward over 1,000 miles from the storm," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Michael Doll said.
"Swells from Earl, combined with an onshore wind, are expected to create rough surf and dangerous rip currents through the weekend," warned Doll.
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The National Hurricane Center referred to the rough surf and rip currents expected this weekend and perhaps into early next week as a "life-threatening" danger along the East coast.
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In addition, the NWS warned about the potential for coastal flooding along North Carolina's Outer Banks that will be exacerbated by the effects of Earl. Places such as Cape Lookout National Seashore, Nags Head, Hatteras Village and Rodanthe will all face extreme rip current risks as well as minor coastal flooding.
Earlier this year, minor coastal flooding caused several beachfront homes to collapse into the ocean, further rattling locals, AccuWeather news reported at the time.
Earl and other systems, including Tropical Rainstorm Danielle, spinning across the basin will also pose hazards to shipping interests.
Elsewhere over the Atlantic, tropical disturbances, also known as tropical waves, continued to charge across the central and eastern Atlantic - with more in the queue set to emerge off the coast of western Africa over the next several weeks.
AccuWeather forecasters say one of the disturbances churning about 1,000 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, an island chain off the northwestern tip of Africa, has a high chance of developing into the next named storm, which will be called Fiona.
Another tropical wave that recently emerged from the western coast of Africa was fighting with dry air and has a lower chance of developing in the next couple of days.
Additional tropical waves from Africa that follow are more likely to travel farther to the west and perhaps toward the Caribbean Sea around mid-September and possibly the United States later in September. Meteorologists say this is because the Bermuda high is likely to strengthen to the north and will direct the systems more to the west, rather than to the north.
The tropics have come alive just ahead of the climatological peak of the hurricane season on Sept. 10.
As Earl strengthens into a major hurricane, it will be the first storm of the season to do so -- about one week behind the average date for the first major hurricane in the Atlantic. Typically, the first Category 3 hurricane develops around Sept. 1.
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Accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, takes into account the intensity and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes as a tropical season progresses. |
AccuWeather long-range meteorologists expect the tropics to remain active through the remainder of September with the potential for a very active October and additional tropical threats lingering into November. The number of named storms for 2022 is likely to be near average with near- to slightly below-average numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes.
One to three additional named tropical storms may unleash direct impacts on the U.S., according to AccuWeather forecasters.
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