Berry's Dynasty 1QB and Superflex Rookie Rankings
Matthew Berry, Connor Rogers and Jay Croucher break down their rookie rankings for one QB and Superflex dynasty leagues, discuss long-term outlooks for the 2023 NFL Draft class and more.
CONNOR ROGERS: All right, Berry, let's take a look at rookie ranks. Little dynasty action, here.
MATTHEW BERRY: For sure.
CONNOR ROGERS: I think no surprise who sits at the top-- Bijan Robinson. I think what happens after that is where things are going to get really, really interesting. You're-- yeah, take it away.
MATTHEW BERRY: Well. so the point here is, you see there in small gray letters, this is for one quarterback dynasty league. A lot of dynasty leagues are Superflex, so obviously the rankings would change with Superflex. We'll get to that in a second. But in a one quarterback league, you've got Bijan, then JSN, Jahmyr Gibbs, who we talked about. I have Anthony Richardson at four. If you want to take Addison and Johnston over him, I could certainly argue that. My argument for Anthony Richardson at four, even though it's a one quarterback league, it's hard to trade quarterbacks and quarterbacks have is that, number one quarterback in fantasy is within the realm of possibility for Anthony Richardson. That's within the range of outcomes. Like, he could be Cam Newton and Justin Fields
CONNOR ROGERS: Josh Allen-ish.
MATTHEW BERRY: He could be Josh Allen, exactly right. He could be a guy with that kind of upside with the offensive line, and with Pittman if they add another piece, there. So there's definitely a chance that within three or four years, we're talking about Anthony Richardson is the number one quarterback in fantasy. And as much as we like Jordan Addison or Quinton Johnson, the fact is, top 20 wide receiver is likely-- we're not talking about a Ja'Marr Chase, here. We're not talking about a Justin Jefferson, here. We think they're nice players, but. So there you go.
And then you get into Zay Flowers, we mentioned Dalton Kincaid. It's Bryce Young and CJ Stroud towards the end of my top 10. All of these ranks will be available and nbcsportsedge.com, RotorWorld.com.
CONNOR ROGERS: I think one of the really good things is, we get to 11 through 20, resurgence at tight end that we've talked about. We saw Kincaid at number eight, there, but Jay, right here. And Berry has Michael Meyer at 11. You see Sam LaPorta sneaking in there. I mean, three tight ends in the top 20 is just good time for a position that's starving for help.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah, and no offense to him, but the fact that we were talking about Juwan Johnson as a top 10 tight end and Jason Johnson, like his over unders for receiving yards was set at like. 32 and 1/2 or whatever. Like, that was the state of the position. So influx of talent, I think some good landing spots as well for Kincaid, for May. Laporta's a little bit crowded, but still, that's going to be a really good offense. So yeah, there's a lot of names here. Again, I don't really see the upside outside of the tight ends and maybe Charbonnet, as well. But obviously, he is crowded by Ken Walker, too. But of this top 20, I think the big takeaway is that there are only two guys who have the ceiling, the realistic ceiling to be a potential best player in fantasy, and that's Bijan and Anthony Richardson. And Richardson, he might just not be good and he might just never play. But he also-- I mean the athletic talent-- I mean, people are talking about his ceiling as being a mix of Josh Allen and Cam Newton, which is just crazy. But he's got those gifts. So he's a guy I think you want to take a fly on.
CONNOR ROGERS: With the rushing floor.
MATTHEW BERRY: In Detroit, Gibbs could be special.
JAY CROUCHER: Yeah.
MATTHEW BERRY: Gibbs could be special as well behind that offensive line. The one thing I will say, here, is that I think it's important-- and Connor can speak to this as well-- but when you're doing dynasty drafts, try to focus much more on talent than opportunity and roll.
JAY CROUCHER: Yes.
MATTHEW BERRY: Again, a year ago, people were like, oh, I can't believe Ken Walker went to Seattle. He's got to play behind Rashaad Penny, and can't believe Breece Hall's going to New York. You know, and Garrett Wilson. They were both like, who's going to throw to Garrett Wilson? Breece Hall, he's got their bad offensive line. He's going to be splitting time with--
CONNOR ROGERS: Michael Carter is there.
MATTHEW BERRY: --Michael Carter. They're not going to win any games. Like, again-- and obviously Hall had the tough injury-- but the fact is is last year at this time, everyone was talking up Drake London and Chris Olave. Olave hit, London didn't. One was talking about Garrett Wilson among the first round rookie wide receivers. No one's talking about Jahan Dotson, who I think looks like a player, absolutely. He had really nice moments for the Commanders last year. And we'll see about Jameson Williams, right? But those are the first round rookies from last year, and no one talked about Garrett Wilson. Of all of them, he was the guy that got the least amount of talk about-- other than maybe Williams because he was injured-- and he's the guy you want now. Yeah, he's the guy you'd want right now. So again, just because no one coming out of college question Garrett Wilson's talent, everyone was just like, that guy's a baller. It's just, he's going to the Jets and who's going to throw the ball and blah blah blah.
JAY CROUCHER: Doesn't matter.
MATTHEW BERRY: Again, with dynasty rookie ranks, I just always think bet on talent more than role and opportunity just because that's going to come. Talent wins out, they'll find their way to the field.
CONNOR ROGERS: So let's take a look at the top 10 for Superflex, which obviously much different landscape, Berry, because of the value at the quarterback position. And I think that much is obvious as you look at three in your top four.
MATTHEW BERRY: Yeah, obviously Bijan is still number one. But Richardson, then Bryce Young, then CJ Stroud. Again, I think Richardson has the higher ceiling at fantasy than Young or Stroud just because of the rushing. Then you get into JSN, you get into Gibbs at six. And then we've talked about Addison and Johnson, Zay Flowers comes in at nine, and then Dalton Kincaid at 10. Although, if you're were in a tight end premium league, where you get a point and a half per reception for tight ends, Kincaid would move up for me. He'd move up to number seven for me just below Jahmyr Gibbs.
JAY CROUCHER: Connor, one for you-- who's going to have a better fantasy season-- Bryce Young or CJ Stroud?
CONNOR ROGERS: Ooh, I would take Bryce. I mean, number one, the situations aren't entirely different. I do like Carolina's infrastructure better than where Houston is at offensively. I think Carolina has a deeper offensive line. I know Houston has the premium talent in Laremy Tunsil, but I think Carolina has the deeper offensive line. I think at least a veteran presence in Thielen. Where you look at Houston as we did earlier and you're scrambling.
And I believe in Frank Reich, that's a big difference too. Where I like DeDeMeco Ryans, but DeMeco Ryan's an offensive coach. I don't know how that staff is going to shake out early on. So yeah, I would go with Bryce, and I think there is limited upside for both right away.
MATTHEW BERRY: So by the way, you've got a really strong run-- Houston has a strong run game too with Pierce, but in Carolina, you have Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard, both of whom are viable pass catchers. So again, Bryce Young gets in trouble, he can dump off to either one of those guys. Both those guys are good pass catchers. And you mentioned, they have DJ Shark, they have Adam Thielen, by the way, we also like Johnathan Mingo.
CONNOR ROGERS: And they took him early.
JAY CROUCHER: And they took him early. So I mean, that's another guy that we hadn't really got into during this show. But we do think Mingo has a chance to carve out a significant fantasy role for himself over the second half of the year.