Bert Watson: A year after Russian invasion began, Ukraine may face bleak new reality

My family had the honor of hosting a Ukrainian family for Christmas. Maksym — with his wife and newborn son — was here in Jacksonville undergoing rehabilitation with the recovery team at Brooks Rehabilitation Center. He personified the American military service acknowledgment of honor and sacrifice: "All gave some. Some gave all." He gave his lower half and is now a paraplegic, missing his right leg. I was humbled. He is now back home with his family in Ukraine, where many of his countrymen have indeed given all.

Ukraine has exceeded all expectations, none more so than Russia's. In the first week of the invasion, I shared with my Ukrainian wife, "Ukraine is fighting for the world and they don't even know it." Little did I know how accurate I would be. Unfortunately, I may have underestimated the possible coming reality.

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If China offers support to Russia as they try to push further into Ukraine, it will be hard to imagine international red-lines of war not being crossed. If China does step further into the war, the Ukrainian military may still be the only country with soldiers on the front line of a near world war, defending the rest of the free world.

Most people know the comparative dribbling of weaponry to Ukraine has been costly and heart wrenching. As Russia stabs deeper into the under-equipped Ukrainian military, the war is also eating up western countries' military supplies and armament. This sets a daunting stage for Taiwan. With diminished military supplies, what might the U.S. send to Taiwan if they are invaded — and how? 

If the same dawdling tactic is employed, Taiwan will likely lose its infrastructure and independence quickly, since any country that could send substantial support is an entire ocean away. Ukraine could only be supplied because of overland access, but Taiwan has no such option. The U.S. might wish to keep China's intentions in mind as we consider the ramifications of Ukraine being overrun by Russia.

As the invasion of Ukraine passes its first year, and the calls for an end to support begin rising, it is worth distinguishing the specifics of why the West in general (and specifically the U.S.) should continue supporting Ukraine. When the U.S. southern border being "invaded" is referenced as a comparison, it is specious. It is a wholly different situation than the armed invasion of an internationally recognized democracy.

The U.S. invited the invasion of its southern border as a premeditated policy. Ukraine did not. It is completely within the U.S.'s ability to end its "invasion." Our government chooses not to secure our border. Then, one might ask, why should the U.S. lead in the support of Ukraine? Because America promised to do so if Ukraine was invaded.

We promised that if Ukraine gave up all nuclear weapons, we would help defend them. If we fail here, instead of any other country considering giving up nuclear weapons, any country that is within reach of having them will accelerate — like Iran and North Korea, among other malign countries.

President Zelenskyy changed the way the world thinks about dealing with a bully when he stated, "I need ammunition, not a ride," at the outbreak of the war (in response to the U.S. offer of evacuation from Kyiv). Ukraine has paid a horrific price defending NATO's eastern flank. Everyone seems to understand that, yet another test is looming in the coming Russian offensive.

With the support and equipment that Ukraine needs to win, Zelenskyy will secure its independence and then flourish, becoming a true leader of Europe. Let the U.S. not dither nor equivocate. We must maintain a strong stand, continue leadership and send more supplies — now. And we must respect the heroism Ukraine has shown and the sacrifice the people of Ukraine have made all this last year.

Since Ukraine is confronting a U.S. adversary, we should contribute as much armament as possible as soon as possible. Ukraine is contributing the boots and the blood.

Slava Ukraini! Heroyam slava! (Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!)

Bert Watson is the president of Watson & Co., a consulting firm specializing in government relations, international and business development. He lives in Jacksonville. 

This guest column is the opinion of the author and does not necessarily represent the views of the Times-Union. We welcome a diversity of opinions. 

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Ukraine's future uncertain as Russian invasion continues into 2023