Who to bet on in Week 1 of the college football season. Analysis, picks and more

This year Jon Sauber and Josh Moyer will be doing a weekly betting advice column with their picks and analysis on the world of college football with one Penn State-related pick, one Big Ten-related pick and one NCAA-related pick. The picks will be made at one of four sportsbooks — FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesar’s — with recommendations on bet sizing based on units, along with the analysis.

Penn State best bet

Jon Sauber: Penn State -20.5 vs. West Virginia (-105 FanDuel)

I have been telling anyone who will listen that I think Penn State is going to cruise this weekend and nothing that happened this week has changed that. Penn State should have a top five defense in the country and has the offensive upside to be a top-25 unit with potential for more. The offense might be a concern against better defenses but West Virginia is ... uh ... not great on defense. Even if Drew Allar struggles in his first career start — I don’t think he will — Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen should be able to break off big run after big run against the Mountaineers.

Not to mention, the strength of this WVU offense is up front and they may not face a pass rush better than the one they’re going to see this week. That won’t matter if they can keep the game close and run the ball, but I don’t expect that to happen. Look for Penn State to get out to a two-score lead early and then to pile on in the second half once its pass rush gets into the Mountaineer backfield as they try to crawl out of the hole.

This has a chance to be the best Penn State team in the James Franklin era and Saturday should only continue fueling that fire. While we’re at it, there are some season-long options to consider here, too, especially with the team’s regular season wins over/under at 9.5. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.95 units.)

Bonus bets: Even with the line moving for Penn State to go over 9.5 wins, I would still be willing to bet three units on it (-150 DraftKings).

Josh Moyer: Penn State -20.5 vs. West Virginia (-105 FanDuel)

No matter how large the favorite, or how big the lead gets, James Franklin tends to keep his foot on the gas — especially early in the season with young quarterbacks — and that should only help the Nittany Lions’ odds here. During Sean Clifford’s debut against Idaho in 2019, the Nittany Lions were still throwing in the fourth quarter despite a 58-0 lead. In 2016, during Trace McSorley’s first career start, McSorley tossed a 30-yard touchdown with less than two minutes left in the game, despite already nursing a 13-point lead against Kent State. (The pass came on first down.)

My point is this: If QB Drew Allar stumbles out of the gate or if maybe Penn State is nursing a two-TD lead in the fourth, you don’t have to worry about Franklin just running out the clock and settling. He’s aggressive, he wants his quarterback to develop chemistry with his teammates, and I expect Penn State to put on a show. Just look at the matchups.

West Virginia’s defense is downright miserable. Against 2022 teams that finished with winning records, the Mountaineers allowed an average of more than 38 points per game — and it’s possible WVU’s defense might even be worse this season. The Mountaineers also have a one-dimensional running offense that is not designed to play from behind, so a close first quarter could still turn into an eventual avalanche. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.95 units.)

Bonus bets: Grab Penn State at +10.5 (FanDuel) over Ohio State right now, before that hook disappears.

Big Ten best bet

Jon Sauber: Wisconsin -27.5 vs. Buffalo (-112 FanDuel)

I am a big believer in the new coaching staff and new version of the Wisconsin offense and this might be a situation where the books are off early in the season and have to adjust. This is not the Badgers’ program you’re used to. Yes, the defense will likely still be great with Luke Fickell as the new head coach, but the other side of the ball is going to look very different. Gone is head coach Paul Chryst and his slow-moving power run offense that quarterbacks struggle to succeed in.

In his place is offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who should have this team gripping and ripping the ball all over the field in his Air Raid offense that could alter the Big Ten. Sure, the personnel is still not perfect for a more pass-heavy system, but it’s still good. Tanner Mordecai should be able to get his playmakers the ball and spreading the field out should only help potential All-American running back Braelon Allen find space to run when he gets the rock. Some may be expecting a slow start given the transition, but this Buffalo defense projects to be terrible and should give the Badgers no challenge at all. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.89 units)

Josh Moyer: Northwestern-Rutgers U39.5 (-110 DraftKings)

No game this weekend is projected to have fewer points than this one — and I’m still grabbing the under. Last season against FBS competition, the Wildcats’ and Scarlet Knights’ offenses only reached 20 points in a combined six games while failing to score more than 10 points in 11 combined games.

In other words, get ready for one epic pillowfight. Both teams run more than pass, so the new NCAA rule that doesn’t stop the clock after first downs should benefit UNDER bettors in this spot. Plus, neither of these teams appears significantly improved from last year. Get your Frank Beamer 0-0 meme ready for this Sunday game. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.9 units.)

NCAA best bet

Jon Sauber: South Carolina-North Carolina o64.5 (-110 FanDuel)

There is some serious game-of-the-year potential here and it should feature two of the most exciting quarterbacks in college football. UNC’s Drake Maye could challenge USC’s Caleb Williams to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, while South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler should be one of the most electrifying signal callers in the sport this season. I’m not even all in on Maye, but this offense should be clicking early on.

There is some concern taking overs early in the year as the sport adjusts to the clock not stopping after every first down — but the clock still stops after incompletions and these two teams could be airing it out. And there might not even be many of those because these two offenses are top-25 level, while both defenses aren’t good bets to crack the top 50 in college football.

As an aside, it’s worth keeping an eye on Gamecocks receiver Nyck Harbor. He is a physical freak in every sense of the word and could be a game-breaking talent if it all comes together. Even though he’s a true freshman, he should be involved in the offense early. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.9 units.)

Josh Moyer: TCU -20.5 vs. Colorado (-110 DraftKings)

Remember this time last year when Oklahoma fans were predicting a Big 12 title with new head coach Brent Venables? (Reminder: The Sooners finished 6-7 and went 3-6 in the conference.) That’s kind of how Colorado feels now with Deion Sanders. I don’t buy the hype. At least not yet.

Sanders is a great recruiter, but Colorado needs some time to build chemistry after more than 70 players left the program over the last 12 months. There’s clearly talent on the Buffaloes — but they’re not ready now and TCU is no pushover. Sanders’ son, starting QB Shedeur Sanders, shredded SWAC defenses at Jackson State — but he might find it a little more difficult against TCU, which boasts one of the nation’s top secondaries. (Bet 1 unit to win 0.9 units.)