Who are the best opponents remaining for BYU, Utah and Utah State?
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The 2023 college football season is at its midpoint, with seven weekends of football having been played (including Week 0) and seven weekends remaining before conference championship week in late November/early December.
At a combined 11-5, BYU, Utah and Utah State are all very much alive when it comes to their respective conference title races, be it in the Big 12, the Pac-12 or Mountain West, to say nothing of bowl eligibility.
(ESPN’s Football Power Index currently gives BYU at 64.7% chance to make a bowl, Utah a 97.3% chance and Utah State a 78.5% chance.)
The Cougars, Utes and Aggies have all played difficult competition too, with BYU losing on the road to Kansas, Utah falling on the road to Oregon State, and Utah State dropping games on the road to both Iowa and Air Force, along with a home loss to James Madison.
BYU and Utah each have seven games remaining, coming off bye weeks, while Utah State has six opponents left, with a bye week awaiting Halloween weekend.
Which of the upcoming opponents are the best? Which teams pose the toughest challenge remaining for the Cougars, the Utes and the Aggies?
Who is BYU’s toughest opponent left?
The Cougars have no shortage of tough opponents left on the schedule, including four of the top five rated Big 12 teams, according to Sagarin.com, in Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech and TCU (BYU misses out on Kansas State).
The Sooners and Longhorns are both statistically and rankings-wise on another tier from the rest of the Big 12 right now, though, and the Cougars play them both.
Prior to last week, Texas would have seemed like the no-brainer answer to which future opponent will be the toughest for BYU, particularly since the Cougars travel to Austin for that matchup.
But after Oklahoma upset Texas in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners must be considered the most significant test moving forward.
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BYU hosts Oklahoma on Nov. 18, but home field advantage may not be enough for BYU to pull an upset.
Oklahoma is ranked No. 5 in the AP poll, the highest rated Big 12 team, per Sagarin.com, ranked No. 2 according to ESPN’s FPI, and per Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ metric, is the sixth-best undefeated team remaining in the country.
Writes Connelly: “The numbers loved OU long before Saturday. FPI has had the Sooners ranked second since Week 3, and SP+ has at least had them ranked in the single digits since Week 2. There was plenty to like, but they hadn’t faced a marquee opponent yet. They checked that box with a 34-30 win over Texas on Saturday in Dallas. Now they’ve got the stats and the resume.”
Oklahoma’s offense is its real strength, behind quarterback Dillon Gabriel, with big plays (20-plus yards or more) a regularity. Also, the Sooners’ red zone defense has been elite.
In Year 2 under Brent Venables, it seems that Oklahoma has returned to form.
Who is Utah’s toughest opponent left?
The Utes haven’t had things easy this season, not with major injuries to projected starters, nor in terms of the opposition.
Utah has played Power Five opponents in all but one game thus far and the schedule only gets more difficult from here on out.
Currently, Utah has three unbeatens remaining on the schedule in USC (No. 10), Washington (No. 7) and Oregon (No. 8).
Early in the season, the Trojans looked like the toughest challenge, given Utah has to travel to Los Angeles, but USC’s defense has only looked worse and worse as the year has gone on, and the Trojans have steadily dropped in the rankings as a result.
No, it is between Oregon and Washington as to which team will be the toughest here on out for Utah and most of the numbers say the Ducks are the better team.
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Sagarin.com rates Oregon ahead of Washington, as does ESPN’s FPI.
Connelly is in agreement with those metrics, ranking the Ducks (No. 4) one spot ahead of the Huskies (No. 5) in this latest run at the unbeatens remaining in CFB.
“The defense is Oregon’s weaker unit and currently ranks eight in points per drive and 17th in success rate allowed,” Connelly writes. “On offense? First in points per drive and second in success rate. Bo Nix is 13th in total QBR and Bucky Irving, Jordan James and a strong line give them the best run game in the country. (Irving and James: 138 combined yards per game at 8.2 yards per carry.) Washington and USC have absurd upside, but if seems like Oregon is the most balanced team in the loaded Pac-12.”
There are, of course, many reasons to believe Washington is actually the most difficult opponent left on Utah’s schedule, what with the “most trustworthy” offense in college football, a Heisman trophy candidate in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and the fact that Utah travels to Seattle.
The answer as to which team is better will be decided Saturday, when Oregon travels to Seattle to take on Washington, but as of right now the Ducks appear to be the stronger side, if just, making them the toughest test for Utah going forward.
Who is Utah State’s toughest opponent left?
The Aggies have already played their two most difficult opponents this season, per nearly every metric.
Those would be Iowa and undefeated Air Force.
Throw in James Madison and the Aggies have already played three of their five toughest opponents, the other two being Fresno State and Boise State.
As to which one of those later two teams are the toughest outs remaining for the Aggies, the metrics are somewhat divided.
Sagarin.com considers Boise State the better team, despite the Broncos’ 3-3 record this season. ESPN’s FPI, meanwhile gives the edge to Fresno State, as does The Athletics’ Chris Vannini, in his Group of Five power rankings (he has Fresno State at No. 5, behind Wyoming (No. 1 ) and Air Force (No. 4), with Boise State not even cracking the “just missed” section).
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“Boise State rightfully expects to contend for the New Year’s Six/College Football Playoff in this new Group of 5 era,” Vannini writes. “It hasn’t happened in a while. The Broncos basically have sold out all three home games thus far this season. The support is there, and expectations are high. The program has to be better. We’ll see if this team can finish strong like last year’s group, but the NY6 is already off the table, and that’s a problem.”
Given how the first half of the season has gone for both teams, with the Bulldogs 5-1, their first loss coming at Wyoming last weekend, FSU stands as the stiffest challenge going forward for USU.
(The teams will meet later this season, in Fresno on Nov. 4, a rematch of the 2022 MW championship game played in Boise, a contest Fresno State won convincingly.)
The Aggies don’t get much time to prepare for the Bulldogs either, with Fresno State coming to Logan this Friday night, a short week for both teams.
ESPN gives the Aggies only a 37.% chance to pull off the upset, although the Aggies have won back-to-back games, including a dominant win over Colorado State last weekend.
