Betting: Should bettors be wary of the Jazz?
Jared Quay, Preston Johnson & Matt Moore of the Action Network break down if the Jazz can continue their hot streak of covering against the spread.
Video Transcript
MATT MOORE: We have a question here from Flashy Stats. If you guys have questions, you can hit us with the hashtag NBABetStream on Twitter, and we'll answer them live. "What do you think about the Utah Jazz run, and how do you recommend betting on their upcoming games?" Jared, what are your thoughts on the Jazz?
JARED QUAY: I love the Jazz, man. I think everybody on that team shoots. They got that pick and roll with Gobert. And Mitchell is amazing. I think they got great bench players. I like them. I think they're for real. I think that they could really cause some damage in the playoffs. But, like, as you said earlier, it's all about momentum shift. You don't want to get hot too early, 'cause you'll cool down by the time the playoffs come. But right now, as you're betting on them, keep it going, baby. Let's go, Jazz.
MATT MOORE: Preston, where are you at on Utah?
PRESTON JOHNSON: Man, it's a conundrum. So as someone that actually, you know, has a model, I run it through. I have projections for every player that I predict to play in a game. I get-- my, you know, model spits out a price for the total for the side. Like, I'm finding myself not catching up to Utah, just 'cause they've been on such a heater.
And part of it is because you incorporate some prior assessment into my current numbers. Like, I'm adjusting with each game with each week as they play. If I was to just take the allotted data that we have from this season, the Jazz would be the best team in the NBA, and by, I think-- I was just looking at this yesterday or the day prior. I'd have them favored by 2 or 2 and 1/2 over the next best team in the league.
But we know they're not the best team in the league, ultimately. The futures price dictates that they're not, right? You can get 7-to-1, 8-to-1 range-- the fourth or fifth favorite. That's probably priced correctly. So you still need to kind of account for all the history that we have outside of these 30 games.
But now, from a game-to-game basis, I think there's going to be a point-- maybe we haven't hit it yet. You never want to try to just blindly guess when it'll be. But there's going to be value to bet against Utah. They're going to be overvalued at times. I mean, they were laying 8 and 1/2, right? At home to the Lakers the other night. And they ended up blowing them out, anyway.
So it's, like, stuff like that. I know there was no Davis, no shooter. But still, a LeBron team was getting 8 and 1/2 points, and they lost by nearly 30. It's just crazy what Utah is doing. And if anything, I'm trying to pick spots where I can, you know, get the extra point or two, because I think there is some kind of shade going to Utah's way in some of these point spreads.
