Betting: Don’t buy into the Zach Wilson hype
Pamela Maldonado gives her selections for the best prop bets in the AFC East.
Video Transcript
PAM MALDONADO: Look away, Jets fans. I'm Pam Maldonado, and I am bringing you my favorite player prop of the upcoming 2022 NFL season looking to the AFC East. And, oh, it is not a pretty one. The two plays that I'm banking on-- Zach Wilson under passing yards and under passing touchdowns.
Yes, you can look at this receiving unit for the Jets and see that they drafted a wide receiver in Garrett Wilson. Sounds good. Then they added a tight end in CJ Uzomah-- also sounds good-- to go along with Elijah Moore and Corey Davis. Now, the problem for me is Zach Wilson, he's still the quarterback.
Wagering Wilson unders last season was gold for me, and I am absolutely going back to the well. Let's take a look back at Wilson in his first year. He was an indecisive quarterback, held on to the ball for far too long, scrambled way too much, and took way too much time to throw.
In fact, he averaged 2.95 seconds to throw the ball, which is the second-longest in the league. Out of 42 quarterbacks ranked, on early downs, Wilson was 39th in completion and 40th in accuracy. This is the big one for me-- under pressure, Wilson had a 16% success rate, under 4 yards per pass attempt.
When he wasn't pressured, Wilson had a 37% success rate and just under 6.5 yards per attempt. You can look at the wide receivers that have been added to this team and think that 2022 might have a different story. Last year, the top three wide receivers in Davis, Moore, and Crowder only played five combined two games together. However, it is very unlikely to think that a complete 180 is going to happen because, in the last three seasons, the Jets have ranked 32nd, 29th, and 31st in team health.
Now, looking at 2021, they also played the hardest schedule of defenses and the most difficult schedule of passing defenses, which largely played a role in some of these unders hitting for Wilson. Against top 15 defenses, the team went 1 and 8. Wilson had six touchdowns to only six interceptions, averaging 188 yards per game, 51 of which was against the Patriots, and 87 against the Bills.
There is a thing called the second-year quarterback jump. However, the Jets, they are projected to play the sixth-toughest schedule of passing defenses, not that far off from last year. The AFC East-- all top-10 passing defenses. That alone makes up six games-- plus, the Browns, the Steelers, the Bears, and the Packers. Wilson against the pass rush in 17 games, 11 will be against top-13 defenses in applying quarterback pressure.
And what did I mention earlier? Under pressure for Zach Wilson, 16% success rate, just under 4 yards per pass attempt. Plus, not to mention that the Jets last year, 29th in quarterback protection, not looking to improve that much more this year. Now, it could get easier for the Jets in Week 15 through 17, where they face the Lions, the Jags, and the Seahawks.
However, the problem with that is that those easier teams are actually top-15 in limiting passing touchdowns. The Jags were actually ranked third-best last year. So it's an absolutely brutal schedule, which is why it was my best bet last year to take Zach Wilson unders, and I'm taking Zach Wilson unders again for 2022.
To recap my favorite player prop of the upcoming 2022 NFL season looking to the AFC East-- Zach Wilson under 3,750.5 passing yards, plus under 22.5 passing touchdowns. Bet $10 and win $200 in free bets by signing up at BetMGM.com/YahooVIP. New customers only, must be 21 or older, and terms do apply.
