(Bloomberg) -- U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is set to lose Saturday’s vote on his Brexit deal by seven votes, Sporting Index said Thursday. The firm established its political credentials calling correctly the result of earlier votes.
Johnson will win the backing of 313 lawmakers, compared with the 320 he needs, the spread betting firm said in an email.
“The most likely sticking point could be the support of the DUP, with early signs suggesting that Arlene Foster and co. could still scupper the deal passing through Parliament,” the company said.
In April, on the final vote on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the spread betting firm forecast she’d lose by 60 votes. She was defeated by 58. Earlier in March, when May lost by 149 votes, Sporting Index predicted a 148 loss. In January, when she was beaten by 230. it forecast 218.
Without his Northern Irish allies, Johnson needs to pick up roughly 61 votes from a pool of about 75 deputies who might be persuaded to join him -- that will involve persuading hold-outs in his own party to side with him rather than the DUP.
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