Betting: Is there legit value in TCU on Monday Night?
Pamela Maldonado and Mark Drumheller discuss their best bets for the upcoming 2023 CFP National Championship between Georgia vs. TCU in Los Angeles on Monday January 9.
Video Transcript
PAM MALDONADO: What's going on, Yahoo Sportsbook? I'm Pam Maldonado, joined by Mark Drumheller. We have one last order of business, and that is to preview the big game, the national championship in college football between TCU and Georgia. Georgia is a 12 and 1/2 point favorite. The total for this game is 63 and 1/2. Mark, tell me, what do you got for the big game on Monday night?
MARK DRUMHELLER: What a fantastic matchup we have lined up, Pam. And to be honest, it doesn't feel good betting against either team. But I do think Georgia's running game is going to gash TCU here. They're just too physical up front, and they're going to force the Frogs out of that 3-3-5 defense.
But rather than lay 12 and 1/2 points, I'm going to bet the Bulldogs' team total, over 37 and 1/2. If you look at Georgia in their big games this year, the offense has showed up every single time. 42 points versus Ohio State, 50 versus LSU, 49 versus Oregon, and 24 in the first half against Tennessee. And the only reason they didn't score more in that game is because they didn't have to.
They're not going to have that luxury here against TCU. Max Duggan is going to use his mobility to take deep shots down the field on the Georgia secondary, and that's going to force the Bulldogs offense to keep punching it in the end zone. TCU let up 45 points to Michigan, and I think it should have been more. I'm going to bet Georgia's team total over here at 37 and 1/2.
PAM MALDONADO: Mark, I don't dislike that pick because it is not a fade on TCU, which is the pick that I am rolling with. Give me the underdog, the square underdog, TCU plus 12 and 1/2. The line ticked down from 13 and 1/2, and for good reason. TCU quarterback Max Duggan, he is a mobile quarterback. 167 yards in the last two games, including 110 to K State.
Georgia, as we saw against Ohio State, struggled because CJ Stroud, who is typically a pocket passer and has been his entire career, turned on the jets and instead scrambled and rushed when he needed to. Now Stroud only had 34 yards on the ground, but they were at exactly the key moments that turned this into such a competitive matchup. Duggan, he has more experience on the ground. He is a mobile quarterback. He is a dual-threat quarterback.
If he isn't running, then he is one hell of a pocket passer that can absolutely exploit a Georgia defense that has not impressed me once this season. 72nd in the country against the pass. The Bulldogs defense allowed 8.3 yards per pass to one of my favorite MAC teams, Kent State, 500 yards passing to LSU, and 10 yards per pass to CJ Stroud who, let's be honest, Ohio State should have probably won that game.
I trust Sonny Dykes as a head coach. He has a plan to attack the Georgia defense that, frankly, is not the same that it was last year when they won the title. They lack the quarterback pressure. They are giving up their yardage. And Duggan and wide receiver Quentin Johnston-- this will be a perfectly fine, competitive matchup. Give me TCU plus the points, plus 12 and 1/2.
To recap our picks for the national college football championship between TCU and Georgia, Mark is going with Georgia team total over 37 and 1/2. And I am rolling with the square dog, TCU, plus 12 and 1/2. Bet $10 and win $100 when you wager on any event. Sign up at BetMGM.com/yahoospecial. New customers only. Must be 21 or older.
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