Betting markets heavily favor Warnock over Walker in Georgia runoff

Online betting markets are heavily favoring incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) over Republican Herschel Walker in Georgia’s Senate runoff with two days until the election.

The Democrat’s chances of winning the runoff were at 89.5 percent to Walker’s 10.5 percent as of Sunday afternoon, according to the tracker Election Betting Odds, which culls odds from other popular betting markets.

The site, run by conservatives John Stossel and Maxim Lott, notes Warnock’s lead has climbed 1.4 percent in the last day.

PredictIt and Polymarket both show Warnock at 89 percent. Smarkets, another betting market used by Election Betting Odds, puts Warnock’s odds even higher — at 92.6 percent to Walker’s 8.3 percent.

Recent polling has also put Warnock in the lead, though only slightly.

Results from Emerson College and The Hill released last week showed the Democrat up by 2 percentage points, and a CNN poll released Friday found Warnock leading by 4 points.

Georgia’s Senate race went into a runoff after neither candidate earned the required majority to take the seat outright. Warnock came in ahead of Walker by just under 1 percentage point.

Early voting in the runoff, which ended Friday, smashed records for turnout with more than 300,000 Georgia voters casting their ballots in a single day last week.

Strong early voting is typically good news for Democrats, who have encouraged their supporters to turn out well ahead of election day through initiatives such as “souls to the polls,” encouraging people to vote after attending church on Sundays.

Warnock also held a massive advantage in fundraising and has reportedly kept up an ad blitz in recent weeks on television as well as Christian and conservative radio.

CNN’s survey noted that 47 percent of likely voters who support Walker said they were casting their ballots for the Republican out of opposition to Warnock rather than support for their chosen candidate.

On the other hand, 83 percent of likely voters who support Warnock said the main factor in their Senate vote was support for the Democrat — which tends to be a stronger indicator of motivation to vote.

Though popular Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has campaigned for Walker for the first time ahead of the runoff, the governor won’t be on the ballot, which is seen as a handicap for Walker.

Neither former President Trump nor President Biden has campaigned in Georgia ahead of the high-stakes Senate election, though former President Obama did stump with Warnock earlier this week.

Though Democrats have already won enough races to keep control of the Senate, the Georgia contest could have significant repercussions on both sides of the political aisle.

A Warnock win could deliver yet another midterm loss to Trump, and it could reduce the leverage of moderate Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.).

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