Betting tips for KU, K-State, Mizzou and the biggest games in college football Week 7

Every week, Kansas State beat writer Kellis Robinett takes a look at the entire college football schedule and breaks down a dozen or so games that are worth betting on.

His bets have been more fade than follow in recent weeks, but now is as good a time as any for him to break out of that slump.

Here are his thoughts on various betting lines and games for Week 7:

Kansas State (+1.5) at Texas Tech

This feels like a season-defining game for both teams. If the Wildcats win, they will be feeling good about themselves at 4-2 with manageable home games on the horizon against TCU and Houston. If the Red Raiders win, they will suddenly be back in the Big 12 championship race with BYU and TCU up next. The loser will be fighting for bow eligibility. So who takes advantage of the opportunity? It’s hard to say. The Wildcats aren’t playing well at the moment, but they typically respond well to losses under Chris Klieman. The Red Raiders are playing well, but they haven’t beaten K-State since 2015. The betting line in this game is understandably close to a pick ‘em.

Kansas (-3) at Oklahoma State

If this game was on a neutral field, Kansas would be an easy team to back at this number. The Jayhawks are playing at a higher level than the Cowboys right now, even with Jason Bean at quarterback instead of Jalon Daniels. But this game won’t be played inside a neutral venue. It will be played at Boone Pickens Stadium, where Oklahoma State has covered the spread as an underdog eight straight times dating back to 2014. The Cowboys were home underdogs against K-State last week and won the game outright 29-21. Another trend working against the Jayhawks: they have failed to cover the spread in six straight road games. KU might be the better team, but it will have to go against recent history to win on Saturday.

Missouri (+2.5) at Kentucky

This should be called the Consolation Bowl. The Tigers are coming off their first loss, a 49-39 heartbreaker against LSU. The Wildcats are coming off an absolute beat down at Georgia, a 51-13 defeat that was over from the very beginning. Both teams were riding high at 5-0 before those losses. Which team bounces back? It might be easier for Kentucky to move on, because this game is at home and there was no last-minute loss at Georgia.

Best Bets

Last Week: 2-5

Season Record: 17-23-2

USC (+3) vs. Notre Dame: The Trojans aren’t going to win a national championship this season with the sorry excuse for a defense that Lincoln Riley keeps trotting out there every week, but I see no reason why they can’t win a shootout against Notre Dame on Saturday. The Fighting Irish look worn out after playing consecutive games against Ohio State, Duke and Louisville over the past three weeks. Meanwhile, USC has sleepwalked its way to six straight wins. I think the Trojans get up for this game and find a way to win ... Or lose by less than a field goal. Pick: USC.

Florida (+2) at South Carolina: This is strictly a fade of Florida on the road. The Gators are a perfect 4-0 at home this season, but they never got off the bus during their road games at Utah and Kentucky. Florida lost both of those games by double digits. I don’t trust them to win at South Carolina, especially in a classic look-ahead spot with Georgia on deck. Pick: South Carolina.

Illinois (+13.5) at Maryland: The Terrapins have covered this number with ease in their first five games. It’s possible they will come out flat after losing to Ohio State last week, but I’m not sure Illinois will be able to take advantage even if that happens. The Fighting Illini haven’t been competitive in any of their Big Ten games. Pick: Maryland.

Oregon (+2.5) at Washington: This game is all about home field for me. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is not nearly as good away from Autzen Stadium as he is inside of it. Washington, meanwhile, is averaging 52.6 points per game in Seattle. I like the Huskies to win the first heavyweight battle of the Pac-12 this season. Pick: Washington.

West Virginia (-2.5) at Houston: Did you know that new Big 12 teams are 0-7 against old Big 12 teams? I see that trend continuing in this midweek game. The Cougars have lost both of their conference games by 20-plus points and the Mountaineers have beaten everyone on their schedule other than Penn State. Pick: West Virginia.

Iowa State (+5.5) at Cincinnati: Another new Big 12 team against an old Big 12 team. This time the old team is catching points. There is some fear here that the Cyclones are bad on the road. But they looked quite good in recent wins over TCU and Oklahoma State. Pick: Iowa State.

Michigan State (+4.5) at Rutgers: The Spartans have lost all three of their games by double digits since Mel Tucker was fired because of a sexual harassment scandal. On the flip side, Rutgers has won all four of its home games by at least 17 points. Pick: Rutgers.

Upset Pick of the Week

Miami (+155) at North Carolina: The look-ahead line for this game was set as a pick ‘em last week. Then Mario Cristobal committed coaching malpractice by not taking a knee and running out the clock late in what should have been a victory over Georgia Tech. You know the rest of the story. The Hurricanes fumbled and Georgia Tech pulled off an improbable win. That blunder shifted the line to North Carolina by 3.5. That means we’re getting some free value on Miami. I’m willing to take a chance on the Hurricanes here, because it won’t shock me if they redeem themselves against the Tar Heels. Let’s just hope Cristobal takes a knee if Miami has the game wrapped up this time.

Other lines worth considering

UNLV (-9.5) at Nevada: Firing Marcus Arroyo and bringing in Barry Odom seems like the best decision that UNLV has ever made. The Rebels are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Lean: UNLV.

Stanford (+11) at Colorado: It’s hard for Colorado to beat anyone by double digits the way it is playing on defense right now. Lean: Stanford.

UCLA (+3.5) at Oregon State: The Beavers are always a force at home. Lean: Oregon State.

North Carolina State (+3.5) at Duke: The Wolfpack got their offense going with a new quarterback last week, but Duke is the superior team and the Blue Devils are coming off an open week. Lean: Duke.

Boise State (-7.5) at Colorado State: The Broncos have begun using Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen in a weird quarterback tandem. I think that will help the Rams keep this one close. Lean: Colorado State.