Betting: World Series Preview!
Ariel Epstein welcomes Action Network's Sean Zerillo to break down betting the World Series matchup between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves.
Video Transcript
ARIEL EPSTEIN: The World Series is here. So excited to get some bets in, especially in the futures market. I'm Ariel Epstein with Yahoo Sportsbook, and joining me today is the MLB analyst himself from the Action Network, John Zerillo. Thank you so much for coming on with us today.
SEAN ZERILLO: Yeah, thank you for having me. It's an absolute delight, and excited to put some bets in on the World Series.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: This World Series has felt like a team of destiny for the Atlanta Braves. However, the Houston Astros have embraced being the enemy. Which of these two teams do you see winning the World Series?
SEAN ZERILLO: I'm picking the Houston Astros here. Now if you're talking about a bet on the series moneyline, I don't see value on either side. I have Houston projected at 55%.
But Houston was one of the first few preseason wagers that I put in in terms of futures, since I've been riding the Astros to the moon all season. And I'm happy to see that it has paid off and I can hedge out if I want to. But I'm not planning on doing that.
I actually like the way the math has worked out for them in this series. Braves struggle against fastballs, 21st after the trade deadline. The struggle against left-handed pitching as well, 19th after the trade deadline. May face Framber Valdez three times in this series. They're definitely going to get fed a steady diet of fastballs.
That's why Boston fell off in terms of run scoring late in the ALCS. Astros went with a very fastball heavy approach. Boston couldn't catch up to them. So I think that continues to work for Houston here as we head into the World Series.
Additionally, Houston ranks against all type of pitching, lefties and righties. They've been one of the best offenses in baseball against lefties, dating back to 2017. So I think Houston just has the bats. They certainly have the right types of pitches to get past Atlanta.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: Sean, we're on opposite sides. Not only are we on opposite sides for just the series alone, we've been on opposite sides all season. I've been on the Atlanta Braves to win the World Series at 10 to 1 since the preseason, for all the wrong reasons, of course. Thought that they had a National League MVP in Ronald Acuña Jr., who hasn't played since the All-Star break. Thought their ace, Mike Soroka, would come back. Never did.
That's why the pitching to me is what's been making the difference. When you look at the Braves this postseason, their bullpen ERA has been the best amongst all pitching staffs in baseball. The Houston Astros last week, aside from their last two games against the Red Sox, they had a near 7 ERA out of the pen.
I'm going with defense wins championships. I'm not hedging either. It's really impressive that both of us were on the right side for each league to get to the World Series. I would say that's a win in itself, but you can't cash the ticket until the World Series winner. I'm going with the Braves to win this series and the 10 to 1 futures bet I've been sitting on.
MVP race, that means you've probably got a Houston Astro. I've got an Atlanta Brave. You go first. Who's winning MVP?
SEAN ZERILLO: I've actually got two for each team. I think there's two regular offensive players who are both very underpriced, Ozzie Albies and Yuli Gurriel. Just relative to their teammates, where I would bucket either of them, I think they're just both extremely underpriced. Gurriel hits all types of pitching. Braves very left handed. They're going to try to focus on the Astros lefties in this series. So sitting behind those lefties in the lineup, Gurriel's going to have a lot of opportunities, also puts the ball in play a ton.
Albies hits second or third regularly in that Braves lineup, switch hitter. Much better against left-handed pitching than he is against righties. Framber Valdez, he'd be more of a long shot. Pitchers have won the award 43% of the time, though, and he's going to get three opportunities, potentially, to pitch in this series for Houston. If he could win two games or potentially even three, he's definitely going to be in line for the award.
And then one long shot I like is Jorge Soler. He's batting leadoff for the Braves in the NLDS against Milwaukee. He's going to get back up in the lineup here, at least as the EH in the AL Park. And if he's back to hitting-- hit at 38 home run pace after being traded to Atlanta-- you're going to want him in the Braves leadoff spot as the potential World Series MVP. Ariel, who you got?
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I am going with the left fielder for the Braves, Eddie Rosario. Getting so many different vibes, like the Corey Seager run we saw last year for the Dodgers. Rosario has the most RBIs driven in. He leads the Braves in hits, and he also is tied for the lead for home runs with three.
As long as he continues, Rosario, to keep this streak going of being the hottest hitter on the Braves lineup, he's winning this award because of what he's done. He's gotten on base in every single playoff game for the Atlanta Braves. Being able to get on base and drive in runs is the key to the MVP.
Thought about Albies, but I agree. The values there, just RBI-wise, he only has two so far. I believe that the RBI race is going to be what is important in driving an MVP race. And you're right with going on those pitchers, because if you've got the shot to get two wins under your belt in the World Series, that's the way to try to target pitchers.
The Braves pitching staff just didn't intrigue me so much after what we saw out of Max Fried in the NLCS, giving up four runs. Charlie Morton, eh, I'm a little nervous about José Altuve facing him, who's got a at batting average over 300. That's why I'm going to stick with Rosario and say he continues this hot streak the way Corey Seager did last year.
I don't have anything else for the futures market. However, I feel like you might. So is there anywhere else you're looking in the future market, Sean?
SEAN ZERILLO: Braves to win in exactly seven games. Made that 15%, about plus 575 implied. That could be worth a small stack.
ARIEL EPSTEIN: I think I've convinced Sean. Just get rid of that Houston Astros ticket No, I'm just kidding. May the best man win, or best woman win.
Thank you so much, Sean Zerillo of the Action Network for joining us. Catch him at his name, SeanZerillo, on Twitter as well. We'll see you again soon, and good luck. If you're betting on the World Series, use our risk free bet up to $1,000 by going to betmgm.com/Yahoo.