Biden’s 2024 Message: Republicans Will Cut Your Medicare and Social Security

Akayla Gardner and Nancy Cook
·5 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats plan to use Republican proposals to slash Social Security and Medicare as a key wedge issue in the 2024 election campaign, showcasing the partisan divide in Washington over crucial programs that are facing long-term financial collapse.

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The president is already warning that the benefits millions of Americans rely on from the twin programs are at risk as House Republicans refuse to back a straightforward increase in the federal debt limit. Biden will keep talking about protecting the programs even after the debt-ceiling issue is sorted, a White House official said on condition of anonymity.

The thinking: The message can win over seniors, working-class voters, independents and suburban women by casting Democrats as the party determined to protect federal programs that are hugely popular. Some 70% of Americans are against cuts to the entitlements, including 64% of GOP voters, a YouGov/Economist poll shows.

The prominence of the issue was already apparent in Biden’s first campaign ad, released after his formal announcement on Tuesday that he’s seeking reelection. The spot features a pledge to ensure that seniors can “live with dignity.”

“Social Security and Medicare is the number one winning argument against Republicans in polling,” said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Research Partners and one of Biden’s pollsters on the 2020 presidential campaign.

While some Republicans insist Biden is falsely hyping the risk — there were GOP cries of “liar” when he made the argument in his State of the Union address — the party’s proposals continue to include restricting federal benefits.

“From Donald Trump all the way down, 2024 Republicans have a long history of supporting and threatening cuts to Social Security and Medicare,” said Jaime Harrison, chair of the Democratic National Committee. “While President Joe Biden has put forward a real plan to secure Medicare for another generation, MAGA Republicans are doubling down on calls to cut these critical programs.”

Partisan Deadlock

The broader issue is that Social Security, which pays retirement and disability benefits, and Medicare, which offers health insurance for pensioners, are facing insolvency in coming years and there’s little hope of a bipartisan fix. The payroll taxes that fund them are already insufficient to pay benefits, forcing drawdowns of their so-called trust funds. By 2030, Medicare won’t be able to make good on all benefits, while Social Security hits that mark in 2033, the Congressional Budget Office estimates.

But both parties see fiscal issues as key to painting their opponents as irresponsible. Republicans have cast their push to reduce government spending in return for raising the debt limit as a sensible move to arrest a federal debt burden heading for unprecedented levels.

It’s been an intractable partisan stalemate for decades, with no major Social Security reform having been enacted now for 40 years. Efforts to find some consensus approach during the George W. Bush and Barack Obama administrations foundered.

“Most people get the idea that people are living longer, and there are fewer workers per retiree and both programs are projected to run out of money,” said Whit Ayres, a longtime Republican pollster. “Sticking your head in the sand about that reality facing us is not the hallmark of leadership.”

Speaker Kevin McCarthy this week mustered fellow Republicans to pass a House bill that included a measure tying benefits from Medicaid — which provides health coverage to lower-income households — and food assistance to strict working-hour requirements. That’s in part aimed at increasing workforce participation, which they argue would expand the funding base for Social Security and Medicare. But Democrats uniformly oppose the overall bill.

Read More: Debt Limit Pressure Builds on Biden After House Passes Plan

Ayres, founder and president of North Star Opinion Research, said the planned Democratic messaging will “scare some seniors.”

Biden last year took full advantage of the opening provided when Florida Senator Rick Scott — head of the GOP’s campaign for his chamber — proposed sunsetting government programs every five years. On the midterm election campaign trail, Biden repeatedly invoked that plan as a threat to Social Security and Medicare.

Scott was criticized by fellow Republicans, and later claimed his plan was never intended to be applied to programs for seniors. He revised it to specifically note exemptions for Medicare and Social Security.

Read More: McConnell Dings Scott as Biden Tars GOP on Social Security

But the GOP keeps offering grist for the mill. The Republican Study Committee, whose members consist of about three-quarters of House Republicans, is preparing a proposal that would include new restrictions on Social Security and Medicare benefits — despite previous promises to leave cuts off the table.

That group has supported raising the eligibility age for both programs to make up for longer life expectancies. It also wants wealthier Americans to pay higher Medicare premiums and receive smaller Social Security checks.

Republicans are even attacking each other for moves they argue undermine the programs.

Former President Trump, now running for his party’s nomination in 2024, has been bashing his chief rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, for votes DeSantis cast as a House lawmaker. In Iowa recently, Trump called DeSantis a “disciple” of former Speaker Paul Ryan, whose budget proposals sought to cut both programs. DeSantis also made non-binding votes as a lawmaker in 2015 to raise the retirement age and tweak Medicare.

Speech Mainstay

But Trump’s own administration made budget proposals that included cuts to the Social Security Disability Insurance program.

Democrats also are preparing to highlight the votes of other 2024 GOP hopefuls, including former Vice President Mike Pence, Senator Tim Scott and Governor Kristi Noem’s support of Ryan’s budget in 2011. That budget plan, which never passed into law, wanted to turn Medicare into a voucher program.

Mentions of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid — which offers health care for lower-income households — are now mainstays in Biden’s speeches.

“I guarantee you I will protect Social Security and Medicare without any changes,” Biden said during a March speech in Philadelphia as the White House unveiled his budget proposal. “My budget will not cut benefits and it will definitely won’t sunset programs like some of my MAGA Republican friends wanted to do.”

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