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  • Bitcoin Slides in Worst Weekly Drop Since March Amid Selloff

    (Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin’s rally hit a speed bump as the world’s largest cryptocurrency witnessed its worst weekly decline in almost a year amid wider losses in risk assets.The digital token slumped 20% this week, the most since the pandemic-fueled selloff last March. The wider Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index, tracking Bitcoin, Ether and three other cryptocurrencies, was down 23% for the same period. Bitcoin fell 5% to trade at $45,672 as of 5:00 p.m. in New York, according to consolidated pricing compiled by Bloomberg.“It is a market that was ridiculously overbought and will probably be so once again in the not-too-distant future,” Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA Europe, said in a note Friday.The rough patch for Bitcoin comes amid increased volatility in global markets, as a surge in bond yields heralds growing expectations that growth and inflation are moving higher and forcing traders to reevaluate their positions across multiple asset classes. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped the most since October this week as stocks like Tesla Inc. and Peloton Interactive Inc. slumped.“Risk-on assets are taking a hit at the moment -- we’re seeing stocks slide and crypto is following,” said Vijay Ayyar, head of Asia Pacific for cryptocurrency exchange Luno in Singapore. “The dollar is strengthening, which is a good indication to expect a slide in Bitcoin and crypto.”Bitcoin’s weakness in the face of market gyrations raises questions about its efficacy as a store of value and hedge against inflation, a key argument among proponents of its stunning rally over the past year. Detractors have maintained the digital asset’s surge is a speculative bubble and it’s destined for a repeat of the 2017 boom and bust.In a Flash, U.S. Yields Hit 1.6%, Wreaking Havoc Across MarketsWhile Bitcoin is often touted as the new “digital gold,” the yellow metal is winning out at the moment with spot gold trading at $1,734 per ounce, down about 3% for the week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.9% in the same period, its strongest gain since October.Heavy selling in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, the world’s largest such fund, as well as the expiry of Bitcoin options are also contributing to the volatility, Ayyar said. The trust has slumped 24% this week, with losses racing past its underlying asset, as a once-massive price premium over Bitcoin turned negative as investors cashed in on those gains, he said.Prominent figures across the financial world have also recently weighed in on Bitcoin.Tesla chief executive Elon Musk said the prices “seem high” on the weekend, seen by some as an initial catalyst for the week’s selloff. Ark Investment Management’s Cathie Wood later said in a Bloomberg interview she was “very positive on Bitcoin” but didn’t disclose whether Ark had made a purchase.Earlier this week, Microsoft Corp. co-founder Bill Gates said in a Bloomberg Television interview he wasn’t a fan of Bitcoin, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the token was an “extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions.”(Updates prices, chart)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Biden Calls Saudi Prince Plot Against Khashoggi ‘Outrageous’

    (Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden called it “outrageous” that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed off on the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, and cast ahead to an announcement about the kingdom next week.Biden said in an interview with Univision News that he told Saudi King Salman this week that “the rules are changing” in the kingdom’s relationship with the U.S. and promised “significant changes” on Monday.The prince has denied involvement in the killing and the kingdom rejected what it called a “false” U.S. narrative. No sanctions have been announced against him.The Biden administration on Friday released a partially redacted report the Trump administration withheld from the public revealing that the U.S. intelligence committee believed the crown prince was responsible for Khashoggi’s October 2018 murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.“We assess that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey, to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” the report concluded.“It is outrageous what happened,” Biden said.Saudi stocks fell on Sunday, the first day of trading in Riyadh after the release of the report.Kingdom ‘Rejects’ FindingThe report builds on classified intelligence from the CIA and other agencies. The kingdom dismissed it outright.“The government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia completely rejects the negative, false and unacceptable assessment in the report pertaining to the Kingdom’s leadership, and notes that the report contained inaccurate information and conclusions,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.The prince has said he accepts symbolic responsibility for the killing as the country’s de facto ruler. Saudi officials have said the murder was carried out by rogue agents who’ve since been prosecuted. Relevant authorities took “all possible measures within our legal system” to ensure those agents were properly investigated and that justice was served, the statement said.The decision to release the report, compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, reflects the Biden administration’s determination to recalibrate relations with Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, over its human rights record.Saudi Commentators Welcome U.S. Report as VindicationAlthough the four-page declassified version didn’t disclose any direct evidence or the U.S. intelligence methods that were used in reaching its conclusion, it said the team that killed Khashoggi included seven members of the crown prince’s “elite personal protective detail” who wouldn’t have taken part without his approval.“The Crown Prince viewed Khashoggi as a threat to the Kingdom and broadly supported using violent measures if necessary to silence him,” the report said. The report said it had “high confidence” about the 21 people who were involved in the killing on the prince’s behalf.At least for now, there is no indication that the U.S. plans to sanction the crown prince. That’s in keeping with a broader assessment that he’s destined to be the kingdom’s ruler for years to come and punishing him now would risk alienating a country that, for all its flaws, remains a crucial ally.Saudi Arabia dominates the Gulf Arab region geographically, is its economic powerhouse, and has for decades been a political heavyweight in regional affairs. It’s also one of the biggest customers for American arms.Biden will have to navigate the relationship with Saudi Arabia carefully, however, as he seeks to re-engage Iran and persuade it to resume compliance with the nuclear accord. Signaling that being tougher on Saudi Arabia won’t mean he’s soft on Iran, the administration ordered airstrikes overnight on Iranian-backed militias in Syria that it blames for rocket attacks on U.S. forces in neighboring Iraq.“There will be an announcement on Monday as to what we are going to be doing with Saudi Arabia generally,” Biden told reporters as he departed the White House on Saturday for his home in Delaware.Economic PowerhouseAfter the report was released, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced sanctions against 76 Saudi individuals under what he called a new “Khashoggi Ban” policy. Under that authority, the U.S. says it will single out anyone who, acting for a foreign government, engages in “counter-dissident activities” beyond that country’s borders.State Department spokesman Ned Price had told reporters Thursday that the U.S. was looking at other ways to punish the perpetrators of Khashoggi’s killing. Among the options may be cutting back arms sales to Saudi Arabia, he said without elaborating.The decision to release the report reflects a return, under Biden, to routine diplomatic channels and traditional U.S. pressure over human rights, even on allies.Trump put Saudi Arabia at the center of his Middle East strategy, making it his first foreign visit. He later abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal with a common enemy, Iran, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.Trump dismissed concerns about whether the crown prince approved the Khashoggi killing -- “Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t,” he said -- citing the economic rewards of selling arms to the Saudis. His secretary of state, Michael Pompeo, said the U.S. had “no direct evidence” linking the prince to the murder, while Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner maintained a close working relationship with him.In contrast, within his first few days in office, Biden put on hold major weapons sales to the kingdom pending review, and announced an end to U.S. support for offensive actions in Yemen. In an overt rebuke, he also downgraded relations with Prince Mohammed, who runs the day-to-day affairs of the kingdom and typically liaises directly with foreign leaders. Instead, Biden has called King Salman his official counterpart.(Updates with Saudi market reaction on Sunday in sixth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Pandemic Binge Likely Spurred Turkey to Top of Growth League

    (Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s $736 billion economy outperformed major competitors in the final quarter, as rate cuts and a spending-and-credit binge beat back pandemic restrictions even as the lira collapsed, data will likely show Monday.Gross domestic product probably rose 6.9% from a year earlier, according to the median of 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, more than in any other G-20 nation, including China. The growth push weakened the currency by 20% in 2020 and kept headline inflation in double digits for the entire year.The data will expose the challenge facing central bank Governor Naci Agbal as he looks to cool growth and restore price stability without triggering a steep slowdown in activity and a jump in unemployment.“The key drivers of the economic activity in the last quarter were industrial production and credit growth,” said Can Ayan, an Istanbul-based economist at Aktif Bank, who ranks second among forecasters of Turkish GDP data. Consumption and government spending will support activity in the first quarter of 2021, lifting growth over the year to 5.2%, Ayan said.The government had pushed banks to ramp up lending to help businesses and consumers ride out the Covid emergency. The credit boom was coupled with a front-loaded easing cycle that helped prime the economy.Agbal has raised the benchmark interest rate by 675 basis points to 17% following his appointment in November, signaling a return to more market-friendly monetary policy. The lira has strengthened 15% since his appointment.The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for Turkey’s economy to 6% in 2021 amid the coronavirus vaccine rollout, while warning the pandemic response worsened pre-existing financial risks despite leading to a strong rebound in economic activity.“With some stability in the currency market, Turkish exporters can finally enjoy the price competitiveness accumulated over recent years,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s London-based analyst Yarkin Cebeci. “Depending on the pace of vaccinations, tourism will most probably be stronger than last year as well.”(Updates with more forecasts in the second paragraph and the first chart)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • India's Reliance partners with Google, Facebook for digital payment network bid: ET

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  • UAE Steps Back From Wars as Biden Reasserts Mideast Role

    (Bloomberg) -- The United Arab Emirates is scaling back its role in foreign conflicts, accelerating a shift from policies it pursued after the 2011 Arab Spring, with the new administration in the U.S. a key factor.The oil-rich nation has significantly reduced arms and logistical support for Libya’s eastern-based military commander Khalifa Haftar, said five people familiar with the matter, as a UN-led process to unify the North African country gathers momentum. It’s also dismantling parts of its military base in Eritrea’s port of Assab, vacating troops and hardware used to support the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen, according to two of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.The UAE did not respond to a request for comment but has previously denied supplying arms to Haftar. It welcomed in January the Security Council’s call for foreign forces to withdraw from Libya and declared support for a new leadership elected in February.The move comes as President Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House prompts a recalibration among Gulf allies. They had enjoyed particularly close ties with Donald Trump and welcomed his decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Biden’s already sought to re-engage the Islamic Republic and reboot coordination with NATO and Europe. He’s also signaled he’ll be less tolerant of U.S. allies engaging in conflicts that undermine Washington’s objectives.The UAE’s moves accelerate a roll-back of its military footprint that began under Trump, when tensions in the Gulf repeatedly threatened to tip into conflict with implications for global oil supplies and UAE business hub Dubai.Covid-19 and low oil prices further exposed the fragility of the small OPEC member state that punches above its weight internationally. The International Monetary Fund said in October it expects the UAE economy to grow by 1.3% this year after a 6.6% contraction in 2020.Risk AssessmentWhen popular uprisings swept the region in 2011, the UAE sought to neutralize the influence of political Islam and its enthusiasts in Ankara, Doha and Tehran. It sees such movements as destabilizing and a threat to dynastic rule.While it’s not seen abandoning such strategic goals, diplomats and analysts say Abu Dhabi has been refocusing its methods. It’s leaning more toward politics, working through local proxies, and avoiding the negative attention risked by direct and costly intervention.“There is a new administration in the U.S. and the Emiratis need to get the optics right,” said Tarek Megerisi, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, adding that even with a scaling back of flights to eastern Libya, some appear to have continued in recent months, indicating a continuing relationship there.“They need to be careful with their image, especially in a year when they’re looking to join the UN’s Security Council,” Megerisi said, referring to Abu Dhabi’s candidacy to secure an elected, non-permanent seat for the 2022-2023 term.The shift coincides with a change of personnel. Anwar Gargash, the minister of state for foreign affairs who became the most visible spokesperson for UAE interventions, stepped down to take on a diplomatic advisory role. The UAE promoted Khalifa Shaheen al-Marar to minister of state. He has served as ambassador to Turkey, Iran and Syria, indicating a possible shift toward mending ties with rivals.“The risk calculation has changed for the UAE,” said David Roberts, an associate professor at King’s College London. “There will be more potential for blow back from this administration on several files, whether in regards to Yemen or sanctions-busting in Libya. This is really the de-risking of the more risky aspects of UAE foreign policy.”The most obvious shift has come in Yemen, where the UAE joined a Saudi-led campaign to oust Iranian-backed Houthi rebels from the capital Sanaa. Six years on, the war’s failed to achieve those aims while contributing to the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, prompting Biden to demand an end to fighting while putting weapons sales to the UAE and Saudi Arabia on hold.The UAE began withdrawing from Yemen in late 2019 but maintained support for southern separatist fighters. It’s now scaling back in the Horn of Africa, where it had spent the past few years building a military and diplomatic presence -- even helping to broker a peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea -- as part of its broader competition for influence.The involvement has come at a cost. The New York Times reported in February a foiled attack on the UAE embassy in Ethiopia was orchestrated by an Iranian sleeper cell seeking targets in response to the U.S. assassination of a high-profile spymaster last year.“The UAE’s regional assertiveness along with Saudi has been a major failure,” said David Wearing at Royal Holloway, University of London. “Wiser heads in the UAE would accept that they don’t have the capacity for this and, therefore, Biden might be pushing an open door.”Libya PivotIn Libya, where a confidential United Nations report found in May the UAE had been operating a covert air bridge to supply Haftar with weapons in contravention of UN arms embargo, the pivot is more recent.The UAE is now completely out of Libya militarily, said two people with knowledge of the matter. The UAE had expressed frustration with Haftar after Turkish intervention last year helped to end his offensive to overthrow the internationally-recognized government in Tripoli.A third person with knowledge of the matter said UAE flights to eastern Libya had fallen significantly though that might be because they’d already deployed enough equipment for any future battle. Two others said it had reduced its military footprint, though all said there was no evidence it’s severed contact with Haftar or Sudanese and other mercenaries involved in the fight.Mercenaries deployed by the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group to support Haftar remain in Libya. Meanwhile, the Al-Watiya airbase southwest of Tripoli, seized from Haftar by Turkish-backed government forces last year, has been expanded, its runway extended to allow for larger aircraft and the potential use of advanced fighter jets, one of the people said.Though that would largely preclude further air strikes by Haftar on western Libya, Turkey may have little appetite to take the fight to his eastern stronghold, resulting in the current stalemate.The UAE’s regional rethink doesn’t amount, however, to an automatic win for Turkey, which is recalibrating its own approach, switching to diplomacy with Europe in the dispute over Cyprus and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean.“All sides seem to be getting tired of these forever wars,” said Mohamed Anis Salem, former ambassador and UN official, now with the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs. “They’re realizing that they’re better off reorienting those expensive and politically-fraught strategies.”(Adds analyst comment from eighth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

  • Frozen Texas Refineries Race to Restart to Cash in on Margins

    (Bloomberg) -- Texas refineries are racing to restart plants paralyzed by last week’s freeze to take advantage of the best returns for turning crude into fuels in a year.The storm knocked off 16 refineries in Texas, three in Oklahoma and two in Louisiana, putting a huge dent gasoline and diesel supplies. That has left an opportunity for plants that are still running to capitalize on the best margins on crude processing since February 2020, excluding the April anomaly when crude below zero. The value of gasoline, diesel and other refined products relative to crude oil, known as the 3-2-1 crack, surged above $19 a barrel this week.The last time this much refining capacity was knocked offline was in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The key difference between then and now is that the pandemic continues to curb gasoline demand. Consumption of the fuel remains at the lowest for this time of year since the late 1990s, according to U.S. government data.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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    (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. is set to introduce a mortgage guarantee program to help people get on the property ladder, after the housing market enjoyed a recession-defying surge.The program will bring back 95% mortgages to help aspiring homeowners who have smaller deposits, the Treasury department said in a statement. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is expected to announce the scheme during Wednesday’s budget.The much-anticipated budget will be the first look into a post-pandemic economy after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his road-map out of lockdown earlier this month.The U.K.’s housing market has been bolstered by a moratorium on stamp duty charged on property purchases, which saved buyers up to 15,000 pounds ($20,900). That’s due to expire at the end of next month, but there are reports that Sunak could prolong the exemption. First-time buyers or current homeowners looking to buy a house for up to 600,000 pounds will just need a 5% deposit to secure a mortgage. The government will offer lenders the guarantee they need when the program starts in April.“Young people shouldn’t feel excluded from the chance of owning their own home and now it will be easier than ever to get onto the property ladder,” Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in a statement.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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  • Dizzied Bond Traders Brace for More Pain as Fed Speakers Line Up

    (Bloomberg) -- The past week’s tumult in the $21 trillion Treasuries market has left shell-shocked traders positioned for even more losses ahead -- raising pressure on Federal Reserve officials to respond to the startling run-up in yields.Momentum traders were, as of Thursday’s close, the most short on Treasuries since the 2013 taper tantrum episode, according to Jefferies International. Meanwhile, expected volatility is surging, a warning flag across asset classes, and the market is moving toward pricing in a Fed liftoff from near zero in late 2022, at least a full year earlier than the central bank has signaled. That’s the backdrop in which Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver what are likely his final public comments before a mid-month policy meeting. A bevy of other officials are set to speak before he takes center stage later next week.They’re appearing after a stretch that produced a dizzying list of superlatives, including the steepest weekly jump in five-year yields in months and the biggest convulsions in the yield curve since the early days of the pandemic. What’s more, 10-year yields, a benchmark for global borrowing, soared to the highest level in a year. While they wound up retreating sharply on month-end buying, the initial move helped quell the speculative euphoria that’s supported risky assets. Put it all together, and the coming Fed remarks loom large for all markets, not just bond traders betting on higher yields.“There are two risks heading into next week,” says Gennadiy Goldberg, a senior U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities. “Fed officials could simply stick to their script and suggest that the move higher in rates occurred only for good reasons. This would reward those investors positioned for shorts.”Alternatively, he says, policy makers “could acknowledge that they are somewhat concerned by the market’s pulling forward of rate-hike expectations, reiterate their patient stance, and suggest that too rapid a rise in rates could tighten financial conditions” -- all of which would benefit investors looking to lean against the jump in yields.One Brutal AfternoonTen-year Treasuries ended the week at 1.4%, well below their peak of 1.61% reached Thursday, the highest since February 2020. The most brutal part of that leap came after demand cratered at the Treasury’s 7-year note auction. The bloodletting that ensued, led by the 5-year note, squeezed bets on steepener trades and other positions involving that part of the curve.In Treasury options, the skew of puts to calls is its most extreme since 2012, indicating traders are still positioned for higher yields -- and convexity shocks remain a threat. With traders embracing a rosier view of the economy amid the rollout of vaccines and calls for additional U.S. virus relief, the swaps market is now pricing the Fed’s first hike closer to December 2022, versus mid-2023 at the start of the week. The Fed itself has signaled no tightening through 2023.Another issue adding to the market’s jitters is the looming March 31 expiration of pandemic-era regulatory exemptions that allow banks to buy more bonds. In testimony this week, Powell said the Fed is evaluating what to do about the relief.In a big reversal from a neutral stance just three weeks ago, momentum investors still have ammo to fuel a fresh leg in the bond selloff, according to Jefferies.“It’s the most short since the taper tantrum of 2013, but is still not at an extreme, suggesting that momentum players have more room to add,” said Mohit Kumar, a strategist at Jefferies. “But at this level, any move up in yields is unlikely to be at the same pace or magnitude that the market has seen this week.”The bond bears do have some important figures ahead to focus on. Friday will bring February jobs data, with the median estimate calling for a 171,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, a rebound from January. Any signs the labor market is failing to recover could roil reflation bets.Vying CrosscurrentsFor Thomas Pluta, global head of linear rates trading at JPMorgan Chase & Co., yields could continue to nudge higher next week and beyond. However, he doesn’t expect the Fed to push back against the climb by adjusting its bond purchases or duration of its Treasuries holdings, at least for now.Further turbulence is possible, says Jamie Anderson, head of U.S. trading for Insight Investment, amid a large amount of “crosscurrents that are pushing different parts of the rates market.”For next week, the risk is “continued high realized volatility” as any Fed comments on steps to support Treasuries would result in short positions getting squeezed. If the topic isn’t addressed, that may spur selling in anticipation of auctions the following week.There’s at least one other topic traders will be on alert for next week. With a deluge of cash in funding markets pushing front-end rates to zero, there’s the prospect the Fed may have to tinker with the interest rate it pays on excess reserves -- known as IOER -- one of the tools it uses to control its policy target.WHAT TO WATCHEconomic calendar:March 1: Markit manufacturing PMI; construction spending; ISM manufacturingMarch 3: MBA mortgage applications; ADP employment; Markit services PMI; ISM services; Fed Beige BookMarch 4: Challenger job cuts; nonfarm productivity; jobless claims; Langer consumer comfort; factory, durable goods and capital goods ordersMarch 5: Nonfarm payrolls; trade balance; consumer creditFed calendar:March 1: New York Fed’s John Williams; Governor Lael Brainard; Atlanta Fed’s Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester, Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari on virtual panelMarch 2: Brainard; San Francisco Fed’s Mary DalyMarch 3: Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick Harker; Bostic; Chicago Fed’s Charles Evans; Beige BookMarch 4: Powell discusses the U.S. economy at virtual event; BosticAuction schedule:March 1: 13-, 26-week billsMarch 2: 42-day cash-management billsMarch 4: 4-, 8-week billsFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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