Biden’s economic messaging should ‘hit Trump’ and highlight his mistakes, data reveals

Joe Biden should sharpen his economic message by acknowledging voters’ pain and drawing a more direct contrast with Donald Trump to revive his ailing poll numbers, according to research presented to the White House and seen by the Guardian.

Surveys by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC), a grassroots organisation aligned with Senator Elizabeth Warren, found that voters trust Republicans over Democrats to handle the economy – but there are ways to close the gap by highlighting Trump’s past mistakes and threat to social security.

“We cannot just repeat over and over again that the economy is doing great and expect repetition to win us the trust of the public,” said Adam Green, cofounder of the PCCC, who has held meetings with top officials in the White House, House of Representatives and Senate Democratic leadership and senior political operatives around Washington.

“We need to acknowledge pain and pivot and there’s a way to optimise the pivot to hit Trump and really draw ourselves even in the eyes of people, basically eliminating almost a 50-point deficit that we started off with.”

America’s economy is performing well by most measures. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose at a 4.9% annual rate during the July to September quarter, defying predictions of a recession. Unemployment is at its lowest level for half a century and inflation has fallen to the lowest rate in any G7 country.

But it appears that the public are not buying “Bidenomics”. In a recent New York Times and Siena College opinion poll, voters said they prefer Trump – the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination – over Biden on the economy by a 59% to 37% margin.

National polling conducted by the PCCC and the Data for Progress thinktank from September to November rings further alarm bells going into Biden’s re-election campaign. Asked which party they trust more to handle the economy, 42% of likely voters say Republicans, 35% say Democrats and 20% say neither. But the research also found that message framing is crucial.

Just 24% of likely voters agree with the statement that “the economy is getting better for people like me”. But that share climbs to 43% when extra context is given such as: “We should not return to the chaos created by Trump. Our economy is beginning to turn a corner after a few tough years felt across the world. I trust Biden more than Trump to crack down on corporations that inflate the price of gas and food – and to fight for people like me.”

There are signs that the Biden re-election campaign is increasingly conscious of such dynamics.

Whereas the president’s early speeches touting “Bidenomics” focused mainly on his accomplishments, more recently he has been highlighting the perceived threat of Republicans, while White House messaging has featured a “split screen” feature that draws a sharp contrast.

Green said: “If we’re putting out something positive about Democrats, it’s both more interesting and more persuasive to voters if we remember to say, ‘and Republicans stand for the opposite’. It’s so obvious but it really requires intentionality and that ball is often dropped. Those are the two low-hanging fruit things that if we get some attention, let’s not waste our attention by misfiring.”

The survey found that a message that blames Trump for gutting funding for pandemic preparedness, which left America unprepared for Covid-19, still leaves Democrats with a deficit of 14 percentage points. But asserting that Trump mismanaged the economy by cutting taxes for billionaires and failing to fight back against corporate price gouging on gas and groceries cuts the gap to just four points.

The PCCC’s research shows that Democrats can drive a contrast over taxing the wealthy to boost social security. The statement “Billionaires and other wealthy Americans should have to pay social security taxes at the same rate as other Americans” has support from 79% of independent voters.

Furthermore, the assertion that “Democrats support increasing taxes on billionaires and support increasing funding for programs like social security” gives the party an 11-percentage point lead. While adding a second sentence – “Republicans are pushing to cut taxes on billionaires and are pushing to cut funding for programs like social security” – doubles the advantage to 22 percentage points.

Green commented: “What the data shows is that right now the public does not perceive a difference between the parties on social security, which means Democrats can win huge points if we can provoke a credible fight.”

Green’s Progressive Change Institute found common ground with the White House, Congress and other partners in a recent initiative to crack down on junk fees, staging numerous public events that gained local media coverage. He has had numerous West Wing meetings to discuss the latest findings.

“When we talked to the White House, Senate folks, House folks, everybody seemed to acknowledge that the data was intuitive and in some cases new. We identified pockets for future conversation strategically.

“The data is a starting point for a larger conversation about how we can all work together to do the hard work of driving a messaging strategy forward and I think they were very receptive to that, especially after multiple months of great partnership on the junk fee issue during the summer.”

A string of opinion polls have shown Biden trailing Trump in swing states, although Democrats’ strong performance in last week’s state elections, with abortion rights again a key issue, gave the 80-year-old president a timely boost.

But Republicans continue to target “Bidenflation” as a potential vote winner while Democrats have long been criticised for wonky communications that appeal to the head rather than the heart.

Danielle Deiseroth, executive director of Data for Progress, said: “We can’t just tell people about the economic facts. Even if the rate of inflation is going down, people are still feeling pain from high prices that haven’t gone back to the levels they were a few years ago.”

“There’s that first sentiment of acknowledging the pain, acknowledging that there have been increases in prices over the past few years, coupled with reminding voters that President Trump and Republicans chose to cut taxes for the wealthy and corporations, and that their playbook has been to always look out for wealthy Americans and corporations, not for the interests of American families.”

She added: “Finally, there’s actually showing what actions have been done to help turn the tide, what Biden is doing to help turn the corner and spelling out for voters the concrete actions, whether that’s lowering prescription drug prices, curbing drug fees or, as we posit, a potentially persuasive policy could be to lean aggressively into not just protecting but expanding social security benefits.”