Biden is entering the most dangerous days of his presidency
Joe Biden’s reprisal strikes on Iranian military targets in Iraq and Syria on Friday night posed one of the riskiest tests of his presidency to date.
The president’s actions were carefully aimed at treading a delicate balance: refuting charges of weak leadership while avoiding dragging the US into a wider regional conflict.
Mr Biden faced pressure at home and abroad to respond to the killing of three US troops in Jordan last weekend in a manner that would unequivocally signal he will not let American deaths go unpunished.
But in the tinderbox of the Middle East conflicts, even the most carefully planned military action can have unforeseen consequences.
If White House sources are to be believed, Mr Biden sought assurances that retaliation would not jeopardise the delicate effort to release US hostages still being held by Hamas in Gaza before he decided to proceed.
It was only after his concerns were eased by his national security team that he decided on retaliatory measures, according to NBC, underscoring the complex calculations involved.
Another consideration was the response of the Iraqi government, which is already agitating for US military forces to leave its soil.
Mr Biden had decided on a course of action by Tuesday, but the strikes were postponed, in part due to weather considerations, until Friday night.
Iran knew what was coming
Despite the White House’s insistence they would not “telegraph” their response, it is clear that Tehran and its allies had some inkling of what was coming.
Iranian military forces had already withdrawn from Iraq and Syria during the multi-day delay, it is understood.
US officials said the strikes hit seven facilities - three in Iraq and four in Syria - with 125 precision-guided bombs on the targets.
They hit command and control centres, ammunition stockpiles, drone storage sites and supply chain facilities.
The White House was quick to term the strikes a “success”, but it is too soon to assess the full extent of the impact. More strikes are expected in the coming days.
There is reason to hope that the action will not trigger a wider escalation. Both the Biden administration and Tehran have repeatedly said this week they do not want a direct war.
The US was quick to highlight it did not, and would not, hit any targets within Iran itself - a message aimed at stressing, and urging, restraint.
Biden treading into political peril
However, as defence analysts are fond of reciting, any action can provoke an unexpected counter-reaction, and there is always a possibility that hostages in Gaza could become collateral damage.
The White House is, of course, intensely aware that Mr Biden’s actions in the Middle East are as politically perilous as they are militarily.
His backing of Israel has already wounded his standing with his party’s progressive wing, and in particular among the young, ethnic minority voters vital to his re-election hopes.
At the same time, Republicans have blamed Mr Biden’s “weakness” for the deaths of the three US troops and the most hawkish GOP figures have urged him to bomb Iran.
Meanwhile, his most likely opponent in November, Donald Trump, has claimed his strongman approach is its own deterrence - an argument that has appeal among supporters.
