Biden is claiming success on the economy. Will voters buy it?

“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.

What’s happening

President Biden is making a new push this week to tout his economic record and to convince skeptical voters that the economy is in much better shape than they think.

“Guess what? Bidenomics is working,” Biden told a crowd of supporters during a campaign speech in Chicago on Wednesday.

According to the president, Bidenomics describes an approach centered around building the economy “from the middle out and the bottom up” as opposed to the “trickle-down” philosophy favored by Republicans since the Reagan era.

There is a lot of data to bolster Biden’s case that the economy has improved on his watch. The country has added 13 million jobs since he took office and unemployment has dropped significantly. Though prices are still going up, the rate of inflation has been cut in half since its peak last summer and now wages are rising faster than prices. Congress has approved trillions of dollars in spending on infrastructure and manufacturing. Fears of a recession have, so far, not come to pass.

Yet despite all of these positive trends, the economy remains one of Biden’s biggest political vulnerabilities. Polls show that only about 38% of voters approve of his stewardship of the economy and a strong majority believe the economy is in poor shape.

Why there’s debate

Biden is working hard to turn his current weakness on the economy into a strength in time for next year’s election, but experts disagree over whether he can pull it off.

Some analysts say highlighting the positive trends in the economy could resonate with voters, many of whom may have a distorted view of the economy after years of pessimistic headlines.

But skeptics say voters care about what they’re experiencing in their own lives, not what charts about broader macroeconomic trends show. They argue that far too many Americans are struggling to afford food and housing to be convinced by Biden’s rosy description of the economy, especially when the the rewards of his infrastructure investments will likely take years to materialize.

What’s next

The potency of Biden’s economic message come November 2024 will depend significantly on whether the economy continues on its positive trajectory. So far, the country has been able to gradually tame inflation without triggering a recession, a delicate balance that some economists believe may be difficult to maintain in the coming months.

Perspectives

Biden has a strong case, now he needs to sell it

“Biden has a stronger economic argument to make than many people realize. In headline terms, his case can be summed up in three words: jobs, investment, and fairness.” — John Cassidy, New Yorker

Persistent inflation will drown out all other claims about how well the economy is doing

“Inflation is the main reason voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy. … If inflation doesn’t fade of its own accord, the Federal Reserve might have to raise interest rates further and push the economy into recession, which won’t help Biden’s approval ratings.” — Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal

The president’s steady, persistent messaging will prove convincing

“Instead of expressing frustration with the electorate, he often sounds like a patient parent, noting with empathy that the country has been through a lot and acknowledging that Americans still feel uneasy about the world. He is utterly determined to hammer his economic message home between now and Election Day.” — By Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post

Voters are starting to see the fruits of Bidenomics in their own lives

“A US factory boom is underway as hundreds of businesses seek to cash in on the gusher of incentives from Washington. … [It] seems possible a genuine ‘manufacturing supercycle’ is underway, with benefits finally accruing to blue-collar workers and other middle-income Americans who have been falling behind in the 21st century.” — Rick Newman, Yahoo Finance

The biggest benefits of Bidenomics may not materialize in time for the election

“Even Biden’s big achievements, like the infrastructure bill, may not deliver immediately tangible successes — at least not before the 2024 election.” — Stephen Collinson, CNN

The economy isn’t nearly as strong as Biden claims

“President Biden is rarely at a loss for bad ideas. But he deserves dubious honors for rebranding his fiscal follies as a win. … Are [Biden’s advisers] also expecting that the American people will experience collective amnesia? Because that’s the only way one can look back at our economy under Biden and give it high marks.” — Editorial, Boston Herald

The Republican economic message is far more toxic

“Joe Biden always says ‘Don’t compare me to the Almighty; compare me to the alternative.’ Well, what is the alternative to Bidenomics? The Republicans want to cut Social Security and Medicare, repeal the Inflation Reduction Act leading to tens of thousands of layoffs, and cut taxes for corporations and the rich.” — Dan Pfeiffer, Pod Save America host and former Obama advisor

Biden needs the economy to keep going strong to have a chance at reelection

“His numbers are weak going into this part of the [election] cycle. If we do hit a recessionary period and people are really feeling it, I do think he’s toast.” — Lanhee Chen, Hoover Institute fellow, to Bloomberg

The economy may not be as big of a factor today as it has been in past elections

“Perhaps more important for Biden, voters may be unhappy with his job handling the economy, but they will still vote for him anyways. Non-economic issues took precedence in many of the 2022 midterm races and could do so again in 2024.” — Ben Koltun, Forbes

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