MILWAUKEE, Wis. – Democrat candidate Joe Biden leads Republican President Donald Trump 47% to 43% in a new Wisconsin poll by the Marquette Law School.
Biden had led by 5 points among likely voters when Marquette last polled in early August, so the new poll released Wednesday shows little change in the race even though this was Marquette's first survey since the two party conventions and since the turmoil and protests in Kenosha.
The poll showed little change in public views of the protest movement spawned by the death of George Floyd. Marquette's early August survey had shown a decline in support for the protests from 61% in June to 48%. But in the new "post-Kenosha" survey, there is little movement in those numbers from a month ago: 47% currently approve of the protests.
Marquette pollster Charles Franklin summed up the public opinion landscape in Wisconsin as "Lots going on in the world, but it didn’t shift opinions very much.”
Trump’s job ratings also remain remarkably consistent, and more negative than positive: 44% of registered voters approve and 54% disapprove of the job he is doing. Those are identical to the president's job ratings in early August. In fact, since October of 2018 (almost two years ago), Trump's approval rating in Marquette's polling has never been higher than 48% nor lower than 44%. He is currently at the bottom of that very narrow range, but still only 4 points behind Biden.
The Marquette poll for the first time included the Libertarian candidate, Jo Jorgensen, when asking voters about their presidential preferences. She got 4%.
The Marquette poll was taken Aug. 30 through Sept. 3, meaning it was completed on Thursday night of last week – before the Labor Day weekend.
At this point four years ago, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton led Trump by 3 points in Marquette's polling, before going on to lose Wisconsin by less than a point.
Other recent 2020 Wisconsin polls taken in a similar time frame by other organizations (Fox, CBS, CNBC and Rasmussen) have shown a Biden lead of 6 to 8 points.
Biden's lead among likely voters in the Marquette polling has been quite steady. It was 4 points in May, 6 points in June, 5 points in early August, and 4 points in the poll that was just released.
The Marquette survey of 802 registered voters and 688 likely voters was conducted in the aftermath of the turmoil in Kenosha – the police shooting of Jacob Blake, the killing of two protesters by an armed Illinois teenager, and the destruction of buildings by rioters.
Trump’s Sept. 1 visit to Kenosha occurred about midway through the period in which the poll was conducted. Biden’s Sept. 3 visit to Kenosha took place on the final day the poll was in the field.
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers saw a decline in his job ratings in the new survey. They are still positive. But after spiking upward in recent months, his numbers are back to where they were before the pandemic: 51% approve, 43% disapprove. In early August, 57% had approved of the job Evers is doing.
The survey has a margin of error of 4.3 points among likely voters and 4 points among registered voters.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Marquette poll: Biden leads Trump 47% to 43% in Wisconsin