Biden Needs Black Voters in Georgia. They’re Feeling Pretty Lukewarm

(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden’s path to victory in Georgia, a key battleground in his reelection bid, is imperiled by lukewarm support from Black voters — the bloc that was crucial to his narrow triumph in the state in 2020.

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In the Atlanta metro area — home to the second-largest Black population in the US – Black residents said the pain of inflation and setbacks on policies such as student loan forgiveness have left them with misgivings about Biden’s candidacy.

The tepid sentiment is a vulnerability for the president in an election that will likely hinge on voter turnout in a handful of swing states. It highlights the risk that uninspired Black voters stay home or look to third-party alternatives.

And it is a concerning signal for the Democratic Party, which has counted on Black voters for decades as a reliable part of its coalition but has recently seen a small erosion of support from this group, including in the 2022 midterm contests.

A recent poll found less than one in five Black voters nationwide said they would feel enthusiastic about another four years of Biden. Billy Honor, organizing director at New Georgia Project, has observed that lack of excitement in his work in the state.

“Right now, they aren’t running and jumping that he is the candidate and would liked to have seen another voice,” Honor said.

Economic Perceptions

To make the case that Biden’s economic policy is delivering for Black voters, the White House has often highlighted economic data points such as record-low unemployment for Black Americans.

But the jobless rate for this group has edged up since hitting that milestone in April. Meanwhile inflation — which has cooled recently after soaring to a four-decade high last year — continues to weigh heavily on perceptions of the health of the economy.

“The cost of living is going up, and this is affecting everybody, but whenever the economy is bad for everybody, Black America feels it the worst,” said Bezaleel Jupiter, 23.

Research has found that Black Americans, as well as Hispanic Americans, experienced higher rates of inflation last year than White Americans.

At the same time, Biden has been hemmed in on certain initiatives that are especially important to Black voters. His student-debt relief program was blocked by the Supreme Court, and voting rights bills he has championed failed to pass the Senate.

“There’s still a lot of things that he pandered to us as Black people that he’s gotten quiet on,” said Kenneth Harris II, a 32-year-old musician who lives in Southwest Atlanta.

A vast majority of Black voters in Georgia, 88%, backed Biden in 2020, according to exit polling. While large swaths of that group remain solidly behind him, Biden can ill afford this frustration in a state where he edged out former President Donald Trump by less than a percentage point in 2020. That margin means even a small drop-off in support in 2024 could be detrimental.

The GOP held onto the governor’s mansion in Georgia in 2022, offering a playbook for how the party can compete there next year. Perhaps more significant for Biden’s chances, though, is how many Black voters make a point to show up at the ballot box.

Biden won Georgia by 11,779 votes in 2020. With Black voters making up 32.9% of the electorate, Georgia’s 16 electoral votes would have gone the other way if less than 1% of Black voters had voted for Trump or simply stayed home.

Mary Greene, a 63-year-old financial adviser who voted for Biden in 2020, said “Black people need to hold him accountable” for unfulfilled campaign pledges.

“I’m not gonna vote Republican — that’s never gonna happen — but I will be thinking about who will get my vote based upon the promises that they intend to keep,” Greene said.

Georgia Allies

Democrats sacrificed one potential opportunity to excite the Georgia electorate: The party passed over Atlanta as the site for its 2024 nominating convention, opting instead for Chicago.

Nevertheless, the state appears to be a focal point for Biden. He has stacked his campaign with people who have deep familiarity with Georgia politics, including his principal deputy campaign manager, Quentin Fulks, who steered Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock’s successful reelection bid in 2022. Michael Tyler, an Atlanta native who worked on the city’s failed bid to host the DNC convention, is communications director.

Warnock and Atlanta Mayor Andre Dickens serve on Biden’s national advisory board.

“Georgia is absolutely at the top of our list in terms of states that we need to hold,” Fulks said in an interview.

The Biden campaign began running television ads in Atlanta in April. Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee bought digital ads and billboards on abortion rights in Georgia and five other battleground states in June.

Georgia’s six-week abortion ban is among the strictest in the country. Democrats hope highlighting “extreme” policies embraced by their Republican opponents, on issues like reproductive rights and in a debate over Black history education in schools, will be persuasive to on-the-fence voters.

‘Closing the Margins’

Biden is likely to get a tailwind from the work of outside groups like New Georgia Project, a nonprofit that has registered more than 32,000 voters this year – many of them in densely populated areas that are Democratic bastions.

“Elections these days as of late, and particularly in Georgia, have been won on the margins with a very, very small amount of voters,” says Kendra Cotton, the group’s chief executive officer. “We’re closing the margins.”

Other groups, like Black Voters Matter and Fair Fight, are doing similar work in the state, many with the intention of combating voter suppression tactics that disproportionately affect Black voters.

“We can be just as motivated as we were in 2020, hell, we can be just as motivated as we were in 2008 with Obama, but when you’ve got historic levels of voter suppression, then that same level of motivation and enthusiasm won’t show up the same,” said Cliff Albright, co-founder of Black Voters Matter.

The backdrop for these groups’ work may change later this month, when Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is expected to announce charging decisions in a probe of efforts by Trump and his supporters to overturn the state’s election results.

“He makes everybody want to vote,” Sharon Williams, a Democrat, said of Trump’s impact on turnout.

--With assistance from Gregory Korte.

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