Biden overtakes Trump on betting markets as coronavirus pandemic undermines president

Javier E. David
·Editor focused on markets and the economy
·2 min read

What a difference a week makes.

President Donald Trump is no longer favored to win re-election in November, according to data from several predictive markets, with former Vice President Joe Biden overtaking the president for the first time as the world struggles to contain the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.

As early as last week, oddsmakers forecasted Trump as an overwhelming shoe-in for reelection on markets: Paddy Power, Smarkets and US-Bookies all had a presidential re-elction baked in.

Yet as COVID-19 morphed into a pandemic, his chances have steadily declined, with those same sites now showing Biden pulling even or ahead. Oddschecker, a U.K.-based site, estimate that both Trump and Biden have exactly the same odds to win the White House in November.

In fact, the rout in stock markets — once a source of bragging rights for Trump — have gravely endangered his re-election prospects, according to a separate forecasting model by Moody’s Analytics.

“Odds are a prediction and a reflection of perceptions of outcomes. Trump's chance of winning the U.S. presidential election have recently drifted in a way like it has not before, which is likely as a result of the handling of the coronavirus outbreak,” US-Bookies betting industry analyst Alex Donohue, said in a statement.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, participates in a Democratic presidential primary debate at CNN Studios in Washington, Sunday, March 15, 2020. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Former Vice President Joe Biden, participates in a Democratic presidential primary debate at CNN Studios in Washington, Sunday, March 15, 2020. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

“Following the rise in severity and the resulting economic turmoil, his odds to be re-elected went from 4/7 over the past couple of weeks,” he added.

Biden’s candidacy has been on an upswing since a decisive win in South Carolina carried him to a string of big wins on Super Tuesday, a surprising turn of events that catapulted him from also-ran to prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

According to Paddy Power, Biden is now considered an “even-money favorite” among bettors to win the race, with Trump’s chances to secure another term now dwindling.

“For the first time since we opened a betting market on the 2020 Presidential Election, a candidate has overtaken Donald Trump as the favorite,” Paddy Power said on Monday — adding that California Senator Kamala Harris is the odds-on bet to be named his vice president.

—Yahoo Finance’s Chelsea Lombardo contributed to this article.

Javier David is an editor for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter: @TeflonGeek

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