Canary USA CEO Dan Eberhart reacts to the Biden administration's cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline and other moves against the oil and gas industry on 'America Reports.'
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Barratt Developments (LON:BDEV) Has Compensated Shareholders With A Respectable 46% Return On Their Investment
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While Warren Buffett isn’t known to prognosticate on where interest rates are heading, he warns that fixed-income investors “face a bleak future."
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(Bloomberg) -- Turkey’s $736 billion economy outperformed major competitors in the final quarter, as rate cuts and a spending-and-credit binge beat back pandemic restrictions even as the lira collapsed, data will likely show Monday.Gross domestic product probably rose 6.9% from a year earlier, according to the median of 20 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey, more than in any other G-20 nation, including China. The growth push weakened the currency by 20% in 2020 and kept headline inflation in double digits for the entire year.The data will expose the challenge facing central bank Governor Naci Agbal as he looks to cool growth and restore price stability without triggering a steep slowdown in activity and a jump in unemployment.“The key drivers of the economic activity in the last quarter were industrial production and credit growth,” said Can Ayan, an Istanbul-based economist at Aktif Bank, who ranks second among forecasters of Turkish GDP data. Consumption and government spending will support activity in the first quarter of 2021, lifting growth over the year to 5.2%, Ayan said.The government had pushed banks to ramp up lending to help businesses and consumers ride out the Covid emergency. The credit boom was coupled with a front-loaded easing cycle that helped prime the economy.Agbal has raised the benchmark interest rate by 675 basis points to 17% following his appointment in November, signaling a return to more market-friendly monetary policy. The lira has strengthened 15% since his appointment.The International Monetary Fund raised its growth forecast for Turkey’s economy to 6% in 2021 amid the coronavirus vaccine rollout, while warning the pandemic response worsened pre-existing financial risks despite leading to a strong rebound in economic activity.“With some stability in the currency market, Turkish exporters can finally enjoy the price competitiveness accumulated over recent years,” said JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s London-based analyst Yarkin Cebeci. “Depending on the pace of vaccinations, tourism will most probably be stronger than last year as well.”(Updates with more forecasts in the second paragraph and the first chart)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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It’s a bullish start to the day for the broader market. A Bitcoin move back through to $48,000 levels would support the pack.
(Bloomberg) -- President Joe Biden called it “outrageous” that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman signed off on the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, and cast ahead to an announcement about the kingdom next week.Biden said in an interview with Univision News that he told Saudi King Salman this week that “the rules are changing” in the kingdom’s relationship with the U.S. and promised “significant changes” on Monday.The prince has denied involvement in the killing and the kingdom rejected what it called a “false” U.S. narrative. No sanctions have been announced against him.The Biden administration on Friday released a partially redacted report the Trump administration withheld from the public revealing that the U.S. intelligence committee believed the crown prince was responsible for Khashoggi’s October 2018 murder inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.“We assess that Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman approved an operation in Istanbul, Turkey, to capture or kill Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” the report concluded.“It is outrageous what happened,” Biden said.Saudi stocks fell on Sunday, the first day of trading in Riyadh after the release of the report.Kingdom ‘Rejects’ FindingThe report builds on classified intelligence from the CIA and other agencies. The kingdom dismissed it outright.“The government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia completely rejects the negative, false and unacceptable assessment in the report pertaining to the Kingdom’s leadership, and notes that the report contained inaccurate information and conclusions,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.The prince has said he accepts symbolic responsibility for the killing as the country’s de facto ruler. Saudi officials have said the murder was carried out by rogue agents who’ve since been prosecuted. Relevant authorities took “all possible measures within our legal system” to ensure those agents were properly investigated and that justice was served, the statement said.The decision to release the report, compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, reflects the Biden administration’s determination to recalibrate relations with Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, over its human rights record.Saudi Commentators Welcome U.S. Report as VindicationAlthough the four-page declassified version didn’t disclose any direct evidence or the U.S. intelligence methods that were used in reaching its conclusion, it said the team that killed Khashoggi included seven members of the crown prince’s “elite personal protective detail” who wouldn’t have taken part without his approval.“The Crown Prince viewed Khashoggi as a threat to the Kingdom and broadly supported using violent measures if necessary to silence him,” the report said. The report said it had “high confidence” about the 21 people who were involved in the killing on the prince’s behalf.At least for now, there is no indication that the U.S. plans to sanction the crown prince. That’s in keeping with a broader assessment that he’s destined to be the kingdom’s ruler for years to come and punishing him now would risk alienating a country that, for all its flaws, remains a crucial ally.Saudi Arabia dominates the Gulf Arab region geographically, is its economic powerhouse, and has for decades been a political heavyweight in regional affairs. It’s also one of the biggest customers for American arms.Biden will have to navigate the relationship with Saudi Arabia carefully, however, as he seeks to re-engage Iran and persuade it to resume compliance with the nuclear accord. Signaling that being tougher on Saudi Arabia won’t mean he’s soft on Iran, the administration ordered airstrikes overnight on Iranian-backed militias in Syria that it blames for rocket attacks on U.S. forces in neighboring Iraq.“There will be an announcement on Monday as to what we are going to be doing with Saudi Arabia generally,” Biden told reporters as he departed the White House on Saturday for his home in Delaware.Economic PowerhouseAfter the report was released, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced sanctions against 76 Saudi individuals under what he called a new “Khashoggi Ban” policy. Under that authority, the U.S. says it will single out anyone who, acting for a foreign government, engages in “counter-dissident activities” beyond that country’s borders.State Department spokesman Ned Price had told reporters Thursday that the U.S. was looking at other ways to punish the perpetrators of Khashoggi’s killing. Among the options may be cutting back arms sales to Saudi Arabia, he said without elaborating.The decision to release the report reflects a return, under Biden, to routine diplomatic channels and traditional U.S. pressure over human rights, even on allies.Trump put Saudi Arabia at the center of his Middle East strategy, making it his first foreign visit. He later abandoned the 2015 nuclear deal with a common enemy, Iran, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.Trump dismissed concerns about whether the crown prince approved the Khashoggi killing -- “Maybe he did, maybe he didn’t,” he said -- citing the economic rewards of selling arms to the Saudis. His secretary of state, Michael Pompeo, said the U.S. had “no direct evidence” linking the prince to the murder, while Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner maintained a close working relationship with him.In contrast, within his first few days in office, Biden put on hold major weapons sales to the kingdom pending review, and announced an end to U.S. support for offensive actions in Yemen. In an overt rebuke, he also downgraded relations with Prince Mohammed, who runs the day-to-day affairs of the kingdom and typically liaises directly with foreign leaders. Instead, Biden has called King Salman his official counterpart.(Updates with Saudi market reaction on Sunday in sixth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
Prices of the precious metals in the emissions-control devices have skyrocketed.
Warren Buffett makes mistakes too. The 90-year-old billionaire on Saturday admitted he "paid too much" when his Berkshire Hathaway Inc spent $32.1 billion in 2016 to buy aircraft and industrial parts maker Precision Castparts Corp, its largest acquisition. Berkshire wrote off $9.8 billion of Precision's value last August, as the coronavirus pandemic sapped demand for air travel and the Portland, Oregon-based unit's products.
TSMC (TSM) closed at $125.94 in the latest trading session, marking a -0.05% move from the prior day.
The Serum Institute of India isn't a household name, but it's the world's largest vaccine maker.
What do Tesla, Square, bitcoin, and Shopify have in common? Wood’s “disruptive innovation” fund has posted a 140% gain over the past year, blowing away the 21% gain of the broader US stock market. ARK’s most surprising forecast is of its own backlash: “I think it’s likely that at some point, people will think that ARK was a scam, and that we don’t know our left from our right,” research director Brett Winton told Bloomberg this month.
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U.S mortgage rates were on the rise at the end of the month, with rising U.S Treasury yields driving rates up amidst a rising house price environment.
The payments in President Biden's COVID relief plan will rely on an IRS formula.
(Bloomberg) -- The United Arab Emirates is scaling back its role in foreign conflicts, accelerating a shift from policies it pursued after the 2011 Arab Spring, with the new administration in the U.S. a key factor.The oil-rich nation has significantly reduced arms and logistical support for Libya’s eastern-based military commander Khalifa Haftar, said five people familiar with the matter, as a UN-led process to unify the North African country gathers momentum. It’s also dismantling parts of its military base in Eritrea’s port of Assab, vacating troops and hardware used to support the Saudi-led coalition’s war in Yemen, according to two of the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity.The UAE did not respond to a request for comment but has previously denied supplying arms to Haftar. It welcomed in January the Security Council’s call for foreign forces to withdraw from Libya and declared support for a new leadership elected in February.The move comes as President Joe Biden’s arrival in the White House prompts a recalibration among Gulf allies. They had enjoyed particularly close ties with Donald Trump and welcomed his decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Biden’s already sought to re-engage the Islamic Republic and reboot coordination with NATO and Europe. He’s also signaled he’ll be less tolerant of U.S. allies engaging in conflicts that undermine Washington’s objectives.The UAE’s moves accelerate a roll-back of its military footprint that began under Trump, when tensions in the Gulf repeatedly threatened to tip into conflict with implications for global oil supplies and UAE business hub Dubai.Covid-19 and low oil prices further exposed the fragility of the small OPEC member state that punches above its weight internationally. The International Monetary Fund said in October it expects the UAE economy to grow by 1.3% this year after a 6.6% contraction in 2020.Risk AssessmentWhen popular uprisings swept the region in 2011, the UAE sought to neutralize the influence of political Islam and its enthusiasts in Ankara, Doha and Tehran. It sees such movements as destabilizing and a threat to dynastic rule.While it’s not seen abandoning such strategic goals, diplomats and analysts say Abu Dhabi has been refocusing its methods. It’s leaning more toward politics, working through local proxies, and avoiding the negative attention risked by direct and costly intervention.“There is a new administration in the U.S. and the Emiratis need to get the optics right,” said Tarek Megerisi, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, adding that even with a scaling back of flights to eastern Libya, some appear to have continued in recent months, indicating a continuing relationship there.“They need to be careful with their image, especially in a year when they’re looking to join the UN’s Security Council,” Megerisi said, referring to Abu Dhabi’s candidacy to secure an elected, non-permanent seat for the 2022-2023 term.The shift coincides with a change of personnel. Anwar Gargash, the minister of state for foreign affairs who became the most visible spokesperson for UAE interventions, stepped down to take on a diplomatic advisory role. The UAE promoted Khalifa Shaheen al-Marar to minister of state. He has served as ambassador to Turkey, Iran and Syria, indicating a possible shift toward mending ties with rivals.“The risk calculation has changed for the UAE,” said David Roberts, an associate professor at King’s College London. “There will be more potential for blow back from this administration on several files, whether in regards to Yemen or sanctions-busting in Libya. This is really the de-risking of the more risky aspects of UAE foreign policy.”The most obvious shift has come in Yemen, where the UAE joined a Saudi-led campaign to oust Iranian-backed Houthi rebels from the capital Sanaa. Six years on, the war’s failed to achieve those aims while contributing to the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, prompting Biden to demand an end to fighting while putting weapons sales to the UAE and Saudi Arabia on hold.The UAE began withdrawing from Yemen in late 2019 but maintained support for southern separatist fighters. It’s now scaling back in the Horn of Africa, where it had spent the past few years building a military and diplomatic presence -- even helping to broker a peace deal between Ethiopia and Eritrea -- as part of its broader competition for influence.The involvement has come at a cost. The New York Times reported in February a foiled attack on the UAE embassy in Ethiopia was orchestrated by an Iranian sleeper cell seeking targets in response to the U.S. assassination of a high-profile spymaster last year.“The UAE’s regional assertiveness along with Saudi has been a major failure,” said David Wearing at Royal Holloway, University of London. “Wiser heads in the UAE would accept that they don’t have the capacity for this and, therefore, Biden might be pushing an open door.”Libya PivotIn Libya, where a confidential United Nations report found in May the UAE had been operating a covert air bridge to supply Haftar with weapons in contravention of UN arms embargo, the pivot is more recent.The UAE is now completely out of Libya militarily, said two people with knowledge of the matter. The UAE had expressed frustration with Haftar after Turkish intervention last year helped to end his offensive to overthrow the internationally-recognized government in Tripoli.A third person with knowledge of the matter said UAE flights to eastern Libya had fallen significantly though that might be because they’d already deployed enough equipment for any future battle. Two others said it had reduced its military footprint, though all said there was no evidence it’s severed contact with Haftar or Sudanese and other mercenaries involved in the fight.Mercenaries deployed by the Kremlin-linked Wagner Group to support Haftar remain in Libya. Meanwhile, the Al-Watiya airbase southwest of Tripoli, seized from Haftar by Turkish-backed government forces last year, has been expanded, its runway extended to allow for larger aircraft and the potential use of advanced fighter jets, one of the people said.Though that would largely preclude further air strikes by Haftar on western Libya, Turkey may have little appetite to take the fight to his eastern stronghold, resulting in the current stalemate.The UAE’s regional rethink doesn’t amount, however, to an automatic win for Turkey, which is recalibrating its own approach, switching to diplomacy with Europe in the dispute over Cyprus and gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean.“All sides seem to be getting tired of these forever wars,” said Mohamed Anis Salem, former ambassador and UN official, now with the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs. “They’re realizing that they’re better off reorienting those expensive and politically-fraught strategies.”(Adds analyst comment from eighth paragraph)For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett conceded a mistake with one of his biggest deals in recent years: the $37.2 billion purchase of Precision Castparts Corp. in 2016.“I paid too much for the company,” the billionaire investor said Saturday in his annual letter. “No one misled me in any way -- I was simply too optimistic about PCC’s normalized profit potential.”Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. took an almost $11 billion writedown last year that was largely tied to Precision Castparts, the maker of equipment for aerospace and energy industries based in Portland, Oregon.Precision Castparts has struggled as the coronavirus pandemic slashed demand for flights, prompting airlines to park jets and reduce schedules. That means less need for replacement parts and a big drop in aircraft purchasing. Precision slashed its workforce by about 40% last year, according to Berkshire’s annual report.And the slump in travel is expected to persist, leading to more pressure on the supply chain, according to the International Air Transport Association. Passenger traffic may be limited to as little as a third of pre-pandemic levels, the group said.Buffett said in 2020 that the airline industry had probably changed for good, explaining his decision to drop his holdings in four major carriers.“Last year, my miscalculation was laid bare by adverse developments throughout the aerospace industry, PCC’s most important source of customers,” Buffett said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
See the returns you would have gotten by investing your first, $1,200 payment last spring.
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After losing 34% of its value in less than five weeks during the first quarter of 2020, the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) bounced more than 75% higher from the bear market low set on March 23. Unfortunately, the stock market's incredible 11-month bull run may come to a crashing halt. Although it's impossible to predict stock market crashes and corrections with any true precision, there are more than enough clues to suggest that trouble is brewing.
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(Bloomberg) -- Eight years ago, when the taper tantrum roiled emerging markets, the so-called Fragile Five of Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, India and Indonesia suffered the most. Today, another sharp spike in U.S. Treasury yields threatens to wreak havoc on at least three of those nations.The Turkish lira, Brazilian real and South African rand led major global declines last week in the worst developing-nation currency selloff since late September. Those exchange rates have the highest one-week implied volatility in the world, with some analysts warning of more pain ahead.Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields surged last week to the highest in more than a year, leading traders to yank forward their expectations on how soon the Federal Reserve will be forced to tighten policy. For now, officials are stressing that the central bank has no plans to raise rates given lingering weakness in the labor market. That will make Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on Thursday at a Wall Street Journal event all the more interesting.In the developing world, dollar-denominated and local bonds just endured their worst month since last March, while stocks posted their biggest weekly decline in almost a year. MSCI Inc.’s emerging-market equity index slid beneath its 50-day moving average, suggesting the possibility of additional weakness ahead. Meantime, a JPMorgan Chase & Co. gauge tracking volatility in developing-nation assets soared last week by the most since early August.“In the absence of a more concerted effort to slow the spike in yields, emerging markets may remain under pressure,” said Ilya Gofshteyn, a senior strategist at Standard Chartered in New York. “Higher-yielding currencies will continue to be particularly adversely affected and duration across emerging markets is also likely to remain especially vulnerable.”OPEC+ will meet on Thursday, setting the stage for another potential conflict between Russia and Saudi Arabia after last year’s oil-price war. The same day, Malaysian policy makers are expected to keep borrowing costs at a record low of 1.75%. Elsewhere, Turkey may report rising inflation, while purchasing managers’ index figures offer health checks in South Korea and Russia.What to WatchChina’s National People’s Congress will hold its annual session on March 5, featuring President Xi Jinping and other top leaders. This year’s gathering marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. The event may last shorter than the regular two weeks because of the pandemicThe proposed agenda includes an examination of the economy and the 14th five-year plan, Xinhua reportedThe Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, an advisory body whose annual meeting is held in conjunction with the NPC, will gather on March 4, according to XinhuaThe meetings probably won’t set a GDP growth target but will emphasize “high-quality” growth considering Covid-19 is still widespread outside China, Iris Pang, an economist at ING in Hong Kong, wrote in a notePolicy actions will also include a road map on how to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 as well as a resumption of de-leveraging reform, she saidThe yuan has the second-best currency return in emerging markets this yearU.S.-Saudi relations will be monitored after an American intelligence report implicated Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in approving the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, an act President Joe Biden called “outrageous”Nigeria’s central bank governor suggested the currency was devaluedGovernor Godwin Emefiele said the official exchange rate now stands at 410 to the dollar. That’s 7.6% weaker than the rate of 379 published on the central bank’s websiteBrazilian lawmakers are slated to pick up the debate around emergency cash handoutsThe real is the worst-performing currency in Latin America this year to dateREAD: New Covid Aid Will Loosen Brazil’s Key Fiscal Rules In 2021Bank Negara Malaysia:Malaysia’s central bank may keep its overnight policy rate at a record low 1.75% on Thursday. Traders are reducing bets on further easing amid a surge in global bond yields“Stringent social containment measures have dented Malaysia’s growth recovery trajectory,” Kanika Bhatnagar, an economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Bangalore, wrote in a client note. “Monetary policy will remain accommodative, with the central bank continuing with its purchases of government bonds and carrying out reverse repo operations”Malaysia’s ringgit has weakened 0.7% this year amid an extended lockdown and a delay in vaccine rollouts. At the same time, rising oil prices are starting to improve the outlook for the currency for emerging Asia’s only exporter of the commodityKey DataChina’s manufacturing activity dropped further in February as the Lunar New Year holidays disrupted production, while travel restrictions to contain virus outbreaks cut spending on services. This will be followed by factory gauges from Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and India on Monday, along with a Caixin gauge for China. South Korea and Taiwan will report similar data TuesdayChina’s factory activity will be watched after the PMI gauge fell in JanuarySouth Korea will report February trade figures Monday, with exports probably rising for a fourth month. January industrial-production numbers are due Tuesday, and final fourth-quarter GDP figures are scheduled for ThursdayThe won has lost 3.3% this yearCPI data for February will come from Indonesia on Monday, South Korea on Thursday, and the Philippines and Thailand on FridayPhilippine real yields turned negative in January after CPI rose to the highest level in two yearsSouth Korea will post foreign reserves data Thursday, followed by Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines on FridayTurkey’s $736 billion economy topped major competitors in the final quarter, as rate cuts and a spending-and-credit binge beat back virus restrictions even as the lira sank, data will likely show MondayThe lira trimmed its gains to 0.2% after being the best performing currency this yearREAD: Policy Jitters Compound Lira’s Worst Week Since 2018 CrisisREAD: Pandemic Binge Likely Spurred Turkey to Top of Growth LeagueRussia’s purchasing managers’ index, published Monday, is set to pick up in February compared with a year agoA reading of Brazil’s GDP on Wednesday will probably show strong levels of growth in the final three months of 2020 as Latin America’s biggest economy recovered from the shock of Covid-19Traders will also monitor January industrial production figures, to be released on Friday, for signs of a comebackIn Mexico, the central bank will probably raise its GDP growth forecasts for this year and next when it publishes its quarterly inflation report on Wednesday, according to Bloomberg EconomicsColombia’s February consumer price inflation figures are expected to show a contraction from a year earlier amid weak domestic demandThe results may have an impact on investor expectations for the central bank to remain accommodativeWhile traders may see evidence of a recovery in Chile’s January economic activity data, to be released on Monday, Bloomberg Economics expects the gauge to linger below its pre-pandemic levelsA reading of confidence will also be watched for signs of a comeback as vaccines are rolled outFor more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
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A look at the shareholders of The a2 Milk Company Limited ( NZSE:ATM ) can tell us which group is most powerful...