If Biden runs in 2024, he’ll have a big advantage: a huge campaign chest | Opinion

The news that President Biden is likely to announce his re-election bid as early as Tuesday has raised new questions about his age, his record and his electability. But a dispassionate look at the 2024 election suggests that he has a greater chance of winning than many people suspect.

While I’m among those who would like a younger Democrat to run for president, there are several reasons — starting with a possibly huge advantage in campaign funds — why Biden’s re-election bid may not be a losing proposition.

Yes, he would be the oldest candidate in U.S. history. He is 80 years old, and would be 86 by the end of his presidency. And yes, he makes frequent gaffes, which will give his critics ammunition to portray him as senile, even if his doctors vow that he’s in perfect condition.

But the Biden campaign would have several major things in its favor.

First, he would have a huge campaign funding advantage, because he is not likely to face any serious challenger in the Democratic primaries. That will allow the Democrats to save a lot of money for the 2024 general elections.

By comparison, the Republican Party is likely to go into a fiercely competitive primary. The party’s current front-runner, former President Trump, will be challenged by Republicans who will make sure that their party’s voters remember that Trump has “lost” the last two elections.

The former president lost the 2020 election by more than 7 million votes, and most of the candidates he endorsed in the 2022 midterm elections were defeated, which helped the Democrats to win the Senate.

Second, Biden is not Trump. If Trump wins the Republican nomination, as many polls now suggest, Biden will have the advantage of running against a rival who will be 78 years old in 2024, beset by lawsuits and possible indictments and, perhaps most important, has a repulsive personality.

While polls show that Biden and Trump are almost tied in public support with percentage rates in the low 40s, Biden has a lower disapproval rate than Trump.

Even Fox News, the right-wing network that last week agreed to pay $787.5 million for airing fake news about Biden’s 2020 electoral win, reported on April 11 that, “Several recent polls indicate that President Joe Biden has a higher approval rating than former President Trump.” It added that, “Even as Trump has risen in GOP primary polls, he still remains unpopular among the broader voting public.”

Trump’s advisers will surely try to persuade him to tone down his confrontational rhetoric, but the pending investigations and possible indictments for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results will most likely drive Trump to go on the attack and look even more belligerent.

Third, Biden will be able to campaign against a Republican Party that has shifted to the extreme right, taking anti-abortion, anti gun-safety, anti-environmental, anti-immigrant, anti-minorities and anti-free election stands. On all these issues, Biden is closer to the majority in U.S. public opinion than is Trump, and of other possible Republican hopefuls like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

As for his record, Biden will say that U.S. unemployment has fallen from 6.3% when he took office to 3.4% today, which is the lowest level in 54 years. Twelve million jobs have been created in the country since Biden took office, more than under any other president, according to the White House.

On inflation, Biden will say that it has gone up because of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but that it’s going down.

Biden will be able to brag that he got passed a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that is the biggest in decades, and that it will modernize America’s outdated airports and ports, while expanding internet broadband access.

He will also be able to take credit for passing what he has called “the most ambitious law to fight climate change in history,” which will accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles and green-energy sources.

On foreign affairs, Biden will say — rightly — that he has rebuilt America’s alliance with Europe after Trump seriously weakened it by threatening to withdraw from NATO. Furthermore, Biden will say that he has united the free world behind Ukraine, while Trump has always had a soft spot for Vladimir Putin.

And when it comes to Biden’s age, Democrats will surely remind us that Trump had trouble walking down a ramp, is overweight and often says crazy things, such as when he suggested that bleach injections could help fight COVID-19.

Biden is surely not the young, charismatic candidate that many of us would want. But, barring a major health problem or an economic debacle, if he runs against Trump he will have a better-than-even chance of winning.

Don’t miss the “Oppenheimer Presenta” TV show on Sundays at 8 pm E.T. on CNN en Español. Blog: www.andresoppenheimer.com