Biden Has Shunned Campaign Appearances in Key States. Blame His Approval Rating

(Bloomberg) -- Joe Biden’s political travel schedule is lighter than his two immediate predecessors at the same point in the midterm campaign, highlighting the challenge unpopular presidents face trying to stave off congressional losses.

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They are often unsuccessful. While Biden has raised millions of dollars for Democratic candidates this year, his party is still favored to lose control of at least the House, with polls showing voters concerned foremost about the economy under his watch.

Though candidates of the president’s party often try to distance themselves from him when they’re in tight races, Biden has been notably absent from competitive Senate and gubernatorial races in states including Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina.

His only travel scheduled for this week will be to Pennsylvania, which he’s often described as his home state, where Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman leads the race for a Senate seat over Republican Mehmet Oz.

During the same week in their first midterm campaigns in 2018 and 2010, former President Donald Trump and former President Barack Obama traveled to three and four states, respectively, for political events.

Biden’s campaign travel decisions are rooted in whether he’s an asset or a liability for individual candidates in the areas he’s considering visiting, said Democratic strategist Jon Reinish.

“If it benefits a race, where his presence is positive, then I’m sure he’ll do it,” said Reinish. “If part of the team winning means he stays away or contributes in other ways, like raising money, then so be it.”

The schedule provides a snapshot of the challenges Biden faces in his role as head of a Democratic Party at risk of losing its congressional majorities.

Presidents during off-year campaigns are expected to travel to promote their achievements, boost congressional and gubernatorial candidates and rake in cash from donors. Biden and his political advisers have repeatedly promised a robust schedule of trips during the campaign.

The president last week made a three-state trip out West and next week plans to visit Florida and return to Pennsylvania for political events. The White House could also add travel to his schedule.

“I’m going to other races. I can’t tell you how many, but I’m going to be on the road,” Biden told reporters last week during a stop in Los Angeles.

Yet underpinning Biden’s relatively thin travel schedule this week is a political reality: His approval ratings have remained stuck under water amid stubbornly high inflation and fears of a coming recession. Just under 43% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, while around 53% disapprove, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. That has hampered his ability to help many Democrats running in close races.

Biden has acknowledged that he may be a political liability, joking at an Aug. 25 rally in Rockville, Maryland, that he told Senator Chris Van Hollen beforehand, “I’ll come campaign for him or against him, whichever will help the most.”

The president’s party usually suffers losses in midterm elections, in part because their political standing has eroded since their elections.

Not traveling to states with tough races allows Democrats to avoid being forced to answer the awkward question of whether to appear with the president. On his Western swing last week, Biden skipped Nevada and Arizona, states where he could hurt Democratic senators facing tough re-election bids.

Asked Monday about Biden’s travel schedule this week, White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre pointed to the West Coast trip last week and other recent travel.

“He’s been on the road non stop,” Jean-Pierre told reporters, adding “and where he is needed, he will go.”

Obama and Trump both saw their parties lose control of the House in their first midterm after taking office. Democrats’ loss of a net 63 House seats in 2010 was the largest shift in seats since 1948. All of the candidates Trump campaigned for in the the third to last week of the 2018 midterms lost their races, and Democrats went on to win back control of the House.

While their approaches didn’t forestall net losses, Biden’s predecessors tackled meatier travel schedules under similar circumstances.

Obama mostly campaigned in Blue states three weeks before Election Day, staging rallies for then-Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick and headlining events for then-Senate candidate Chris Coons in Delaware and the Democratic National Committee in Philadelphia. He also campaigned for vulnerable Democratic Representative Ron Klein in Florida. At the time, Obama’s approval rating stood at 45% in Gallup’s tracking poll.

Trump, whose approval rating stood at 44% in Gallup’s poll at the same point in 2018, staged rallies for Montana Senate candidate Matt Rosendale, Arizona Senate candidate Martha McSally, then-Nevada Senator Dean Heller and gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt. The former president has maintained his grip on the GOP and has often shadowed Biden with rallies during the 2022 elections.

Obama is planning trips next week to three crucial battleground states: Georgia, Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump is holding a rally in Texas on Saturday.

Reinish said that presidential campaigning in off-year elections can be less helpful than it once was as the nation has become more polarized and old political coalitions have vanished.

“The gettable voters out there have changed, there’s more needle threading than when you were appealing to a truly massive coalition on both sides of the aisle,” he said.

Biden has found other ways to get his message out. He plans to appear Tuesday at a Democratic National Committee event in Washington to deliver a speech focused on abortion rights, the committee said. He has also used official trips to tout his agenda. Before appearing Thursday at an event for Fetterman in Philadelphia, Biden will travel to Pittsburgh to speak about his signature infrastructure law.

White House surrogates -- including First Lady Jill Biden, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Vice President Kamala Harris and Second Gentlemen Doug Emhoff -- have also traveled to campaign, raise money or highlight the administration’s message.

Biden’s lone trip this week is sandwiched between weekends in his home state of Delaware. He returned to Washington on Monday from his house outside Wilmington and plans to spend next weekend at his home in Rehoboth Beach, according to the White House. Biden has made 55 visits to Delaware since he was inaugurated, totaling more than a quarter of his presidency, according to a CNN report.

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