Biden stability beats Trump volatility in 2024 match-up, experts suggest

As it stands, political scientists expect Donald Trump to win the Republican nomination for president. Most GOP candidates are in lockstep with Trumpist policies and culture wars, failing to differentiate in an already scattered field; despite the appearance of a united front, factions within the party cannot agree on when and how to pass hardline legislation. Traditional conservative forces are looking for a less volatile alternative with a more viable path to win the general election, and as that concern mounts, some experts say Biden could be narrowly re-elected if the race is a rematch of 2020.

“Trump is the mainstream,” said Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, pointing out that “so-called mainstream Republicans” such as Liz Cheney are now out of office.

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Lichtman, who wrote The Keys to the White House, which breaks down a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections, said there was no polarization within the Republican party and denied Trump is not a real conservative. Trump’s policies are an “absolute culmination of 100 years of Republican tradition”, he said. Lichtman compared Trump’s demonization of Muslims with the Republican party’s demonization of Catholics and Jews during the 1920s. Trump’s base wants him to be a bully, he said: they don’t care about his infidelities or sexual assault allegations.

“Republican contenders haven’t challenged any of Trump’s policies. They might be talking about his electability, his character, but they haven’t challenged what he stands for,” Lichtman said.

David Bateman, a political scientist at Cornell, compared Trump’s closest competitor, Ron DeSantis, to the former Wisconsin governor Scott Walker, who ran a failed bid for the Republican nomination in 2016. What worked in the governors’ respective states does not necessarily work on a national stage, Bateman said – and it’s not clear the culture-war politics successful in Florida can win nationally.

“It’s too specific. It’s too context-dependent,” Bateman said, adding that Chris Christie does not seem to be running for president, but instead running against Trump and drawing procedural critiques: “He has a better chance of winning a Democratic nomination.”

Other candidates, such as Tim Scott and Nikki Haley, do not think they can win this round, but know their candidacy will allow them to build a national profile and position them for the 2028 race, Bateman said. Bateman also suggested they may be angling for a vice-presidential nomination.

If Trump is convicted of a felony after he wins the nomination or if he gets convicted and still wins the nomination, it is possible that the Republican National Committee could remove Trump, Lichtman said. In which case, any of his other challengers could get the nomination.

“On average, scandal doesn’t help. Legal trouble doesn’t help,” Jacob Nieheisel at the University at Buffalo.

For a certain element of the electorate, the legal issues will help Trump. Nieheisel added that “they are going to double down”. For mainstream Republicans, Trump’s legal troubles will be a deal-breaker, Nieheisel said.

It’s clear some of the Republican party’s institutional allies are already reconsidering their support, with Rupert Murdoch pulling away from Trump and DeSantis, Bateman said. It could be a good sign for moderate or “country club” Republicans that Koch-related entities are looking to fund other candidates instead of Trump-style Republicans, but Nieheisel said it was unlikely to be a saving grace if they cannot convince people who like Trump to look elsewhere.

Additionally, Nieheisel said, how will moderate Republicans in Congress handle this particular conundrum: if this is going to be the party of Trump, how can they tap into that energy and fundraising?

Despite ideological differences among Republicans, it’s in the interests of the party “to showcase a unified front”.

“They don’t want their dirty laundry aired,” Neiheisel said.

Bateman said “the polarization we are seeing with the Republican party is polarization within an already radicalized party” and that the polarization in the primaries “is very similar to what you are seeing in Congress.” The divisions within the party are over tactics, he said. While there is broad support within the party for policy, Republicans do not agree on how they can pass legislation considering they do not have the votes in the Senate.

“Whatever is the most extreme faction [of the party] is making demands for policy that on its own would not pass,” said Bateman.

Far-right conservatives included policies on military support for Ukraine, abortion, gender and race into an annual defense bill, the New York Times reported. They want things they cannot get passed, Bateman said, raising brinkmanship.

In Bateman’s view, Republicans are not looking for someone different than Trump – just someone less mercurial. This reflects a calculation among party leaders and some donors that “Trump is a loser”. Bateman pointed out that Trump lost the popular vote against Hillary Clinton and the election to Biden. He said that had it not been for Trump the Republican party could have won in 2020.

Since 1984, Lichtman has predicted nine out of 10 presidential elections using 13 keys: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

But he said there are too many keys still up in the air for him to predict the 2024 outcome. If he runs for re-election, Biden would have two keys: incumbency and a lack of a serious challenger. But he would need four more for a re-election win. The “critical keys in place”, Lichtman said, are the short and long-term outlooks of the economy, and foreign or military successes or failures.

Niehiesel said voters were going to see stability versus a wildcard. People are not interested in the soap-opera aspects of Trump’s candidacy, he added, meaning many Republicans will stay home or cross the aisle.

“Barring something else happening,” he said, “I think it’s really Biden’s to lose if that ends up being the match-up.”

• This article was amended on 17 July 2023 to correct the name of the University at Buffalo, which we originally referred to as Buffalo University.