Biden is struggling to connect with key Democratic voters. Is Trump enough to fix it?

WASHINGTON − A Day One executive order addressing racial inequity. More federal loans for Black businesses. Actions to lower prescription drug prices and cap the crippling cost of insulin.

"Putting in the work for Black America," a narrator says in a President Joe Biden campaign ad that ran this fall, listing these accomplishments.

But when Yolanda Pickstock travels across Georgia and listens to Black voters, she doesn't hear the same list.

The people she meets with are worried about thousands of low-income Georgians being removed from the state's Medicaid program, and cuts to child care assistance and food stamps. They struggle to identify what Biden has done for their communities.

Biden won Georgia in 2020 by 11,779 votes. Any softening in Black support would kill his chances of a Peach State repeat. But many Black voters can't see how Biden's presidency has improved their lives.

“They are unclear about what they've gained from this administration,’’ said Pickstock, legislative director for Georgia STAND-UP, a progressive advocacy group based in Atlanta. “Activists are clear and people in the movement are clear, but voters on the ground are not. They are still experiencing difficulties.’’

The disconnect with voters in Georgia, a crucial battleground that helped Biden win the presidency in 2020, underscores why many Democrats are anxious about Biden as the party's standard-bearer.

With the 2024 presidential election 11 months away, Democrats are rattled by polls showing Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical rematch and worried Biden's legislative accomplishments − including historic funding for infrastructure and climate and helping spearhead new manufacturing jobs − haven't resonated with key voters.

Meanwhile, Biden, who turned 81 in November, hasn't silenced concerns about his age.

In an especially troubling sign for Biden, polling suggests that voters of color − Democrats' most important and reliable voting bloc − are unenthused, and in some cases unconvinced, about the president. A poll from HarrisX/The Messenger last week found only 59% of Black voters and 45% of Hispanic voters said they would vote for Biden in a race against Trump. Biden won support from 92% of Black voters and 69% of Latino voters in 2020.

Pickstock said some Black voters don’t feel their lives have improved much in the past three years. Amid the president's legislative victories, inflation − although down substantially from a year ago − has increased more than 17% during Biden's term, while wages have gone up 13%.

“They've got to talk to people where they are,’’ said Pickstock, also a longtime labor activist. “In Washington, D.C., people have a tendency to talk what they know and what they believe people want to hear, but they don't get out into the communities and talk to people about what they want."

Democrats bank on Trump being the ultimate motivator

With the start of voting in the Democratic primaries two months away, Biden is all but certain to be the party's nominee − and there doesn't appear to be a viable Plan B if he were to suddenly drop out.

Biden has a commanding lead over his two long-shot Democratic challengers, writer Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, a Democratic congressman from Minnesota. With qualifying deadlines having already passed to appear on some states' primary ballots, it is probably too late for a more prominent Democratic challenger to mount a campaign.

For Biden to win next November, he will have to motivate a Democratic base that doesn't appear excited by his candidacy. A CNN poll in September found two-thirds of Democrats don't want Biden to run again, and 70% cite his age or concerns about his mental sharpness, health and ability to handle the job.

Democratic operatives in states that could decide the election are quick to praise Biden for rebuilding the economy coming out of a global pandemic and pushing a progressive agenda through a divided Congress.

Yet with Trump the heavy favorite to secure the Republican nomination, they are banking on the threat of a second Trump presidency to fire up Democrats.

"To be honest, people are not energized and mobilized right now," said Christine Sinicki, a Wisconsin state representative and chair of the Democratic Party of Milwaukee County. But an enthusiasm gap isn't unusual this far out from a presidential election, she told USA TODAY, and she predicted Democrats will rally behind Biden next year. "People will realize, 'Oh wait, we're in election season, and we can't take a chance of letting Donald Trump become president again.'"

Kevyn Creech, chairwoman of the Wake County Democratic Party in North Carolina, another swing state, said Democrats will back Biden even if he doesn't inspire them like past Democratic presidents.

"The fact of the matter is if he's our standard-bearer, everyone's going to lean in hard because the alternative is unthinkable − what could happen if Trump or (Nikki) Haley or somebody else were elected," Creech said.

Using Trump as a foil is "not necessarily the most beautiful thing in the world," Creech said. "It's not the same as everyone getting behind like Obama and just saying, 'Oh, amazing!'"

Signs of lagging enthusiasm with young voters

For now, Biden also faces lagging enthusiasm among voters younger than 30, a group he carried 60%-36% over Trump in 2020.

A poll released Tuesday by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School found 49% of voters ages 28 to 29 “definitely” plan to vote next year, a drop from 57% who said the same in 2019.

The poll shows a steeper decline in planned participation among young Republicans than Democrats. But the decline is also a result of independents – the plurality of young voters and a group that Biden carried in 2020 − saying they plan to sit out 2024.

“What the Biden campaign really needs to do is find a way to pierce this bubble of independent-minded young people who are not paying really close attention to politics,” said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.

Della Volpe, a pollster for Biden's 2020 campaign, said the Biden campaign needs to remind young voters that they helped decide the 2020 election, that Biden proved the federal government can do big things, and that the Democratic Party best reflects their values even if they “may not be the perfect choice, the perfect party.”

Biden's support for Israel amid its war against Hamas threatens to dampen support from some young voters and progressives, many of whom are urging Biden to call for a cease-fire.

"In my circles he's probably losing some people by just blindly supporting Israel," said Jason Agel, 42, a music producer from Middleton, N.J., who supports Biden. He called the polls "worrisome" but said he believes Biden would defeat Trump.

"I tend to think that people are worrying, but it's really not going to be much of a worry once it comes down to Trump," he said.

At Howard University in Washington, D.C., hundreds of students gathered on campus in October for a pro-Palestinian rally. Speakers called out the Biden administration for not demanding a cease-fire and slammed his team for not abandoning deals with defense contractors building missiles and other weapons of war.

“People are feeling so impassioned about Palestine that they're willing to make an alternative choice,’’ said Delaney Leonard, 19, a sophomore who helped organize the protest. “They're willing to think deeper about the way that this country is operating, and so they don't want to vote.”

A 'mismatch' on the economy

One of Biden's biggest liabilities remains inflation, which has overshadowed other positive economic metrics that Biden has sought credit for, such as low employment and strong economic growth. Biden has embraced the slogan "Bidenomics" to tout the progress, but the message is muddled by food costs that remain high despite inflation that has cooled significantly from last year.

“The president needs to go out and relentlessly target price reduction,’’ said Evan Roth Smith, lead pollster for Blueprint, a Democratic public opinion group. “Voters don't view him as in the fight on prices.’’

In contrast, he said, they view Trump and Republicans as focused on the issue. More Americans said they trust Trump than Biden to improve the economy by a 47%-36% margin, according to an exclusive poll from the Suffolk University Sawyer Business School and USA TODAY

“There's a real mismatch there,’’ said Roth Smith, whose organization recently polled Black and swing voters. “Voters are running are out there saying 'Prices, prices, prices, please do something about these prices.' And then they look at Joe Biden and think, ‘That guy only cares about jobs, but I have a job.’ Then that's a problem for Joe Biden.’’

The White House has held several events touting efforts to eliminate "junk fees" that create added expenses for consumers and a law Biden secured to lower the cost of prescription drugs through Medicare negotiation. Biden has taken multiple trips to clean-energy factories that have expanded as a result of incentives in the Inflation Reduction Act.

But progressive activists say getting through to voters has been tough.

More than 150 Floridians clicked into an online call by Equal Ground Education Fund and Action Fund − which fights for progressive causes including a living wage and social justice − this month to get updates on policies affecting Black voters and efforts by the White House.

The 90-minute call included information about the two-year anniversary of the bipartisan infrastructure plan Biden pushed through Congress and his administration’s climate plan.

“But we can only do so much, our message can only go so far,’’ said Jasmine Burney-Clark, Equal Ground's founder and director.

In July, Vice President Kamala Harris showed up in Florida to push back against state policies critics said roll back civil rights in the state, including banning some books in schools and restricting the teaching of Black history.

But, Burney-Clark said, she doesn’t know if those efforts translate into more interest from Black voters.

“I don't know if voters are aware of those types of intentional decisions that are being made on their behalf,’’ she said.

'We cannot let him win': Will a contrast between Trump be enough?

Biden likes to say "don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative."

To quell concerns among Democratic ranks, Biden campaign advisers have argued it is too early for an accurate snapshot of a hypothetical matchup against Trump, insisting the race will crystallize for votes as a clear contrast between the "chaos" of Trump versus Biden's record as the election gets closer.

"It's going to be a binary choice next year," Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a Biden ally, said on CNN after last week's Republican primary debate. "It's going to be either the guy who is in court today," he said, referring to Trump, "or one of the folks who was weirdly on that stage last night versus a guy who is delivering."

Last month, the campaign said voters "proved the pollsters and pundits wrong" during off-year elections that saw Democrats win a governor's race in conservative Kentucky, sweep both of Virginia's state legislative chambers and claim an overwhelming victory for abortion rights in Ohio.

Biden, who used to refer Trump as "the former guy" and rarely mentioned him by name, has ratcheted up his attacks against Trump in recognition that he's likely to be the Republican nominee.

"If Trump wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running," Biden said last week at a campaign fundraiser near Boston. "But we cannot let him win."

Biden recently assailed Trump for echoing language from "Nazi Germany," singling out the former president's description of his political opponents as "vermin" and warning that Trump is determined to "destroy American democracy."

But David Axelrod, a former top strategist for Obama, said Biden can't just rely on Trump's controversies to win the race.

“I think he has a 50-50 shot here, but no better than that, maybe a little worse,” Axelrod told New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd last month. “He thinks he can cheat nature here, and it’s really risky. They’ve got a real problem if they’re counting on Trump to win it for them. I remember Hillary doing that, too.”

That's why, rather than reminding voters about Trump's indictments and threats to overturn the last election, the Biden campaign has tried to establish policy differences with Trump's "MAGA agenda," arguing, for example, that Biden delivered on a Midwest manufacturing wave that Trump promised.

The Biden campaign has reminded voters relentlessly that Trump appointed three justices who tilted the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade and a constitutional right to an abortion. A new round of Biden campaign attacks center on Trump's threats to dismantle the Affordable Care Act, the signature health care law of former President Barack Obama.

The Biden campaign is confident those are winning contrasts, but some activists said the president needs to get the Democratic base to see it.

“Black folks are not a monolith, so we have to talk to our folks where they are and based on what's important to them,’’ said Pickstock, an activist in Atlanta. “The conversation that we're having with Grandmother is not the same conversation we’re having with Cuz.”

Progressive organizers said the Biden campaign and national Democrats also need to do more to fund and bolster get-out-the-vote efforts, particularly in battleground states where Black voter turnout was crucial to Biden wins in 2020.

“They're showing up physically. They're not investing in the funds needed to educate and turn out voters of color,’’ Burney-Clark said of White House officials' visits to Florida. “You can pat us on the back, but that's not going to get us to the polls.”

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison and Deborah Berry @dberrygannett.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Donald Trump is the ultimate motivator for voters uninspired by Biden