Biden tax increases would raise $4T, analysis says

Tax proposals by Democratic presidential contender Joe Biden would raise about $4 trillion over a decade, largely due to increased rates on high-income households and businesses, according to a new Tax Policy Center analysis.

“Four big-ticket items account for about 80 percent of the revenue gain,” said Gordon Mermin, senior research associate at the nonpartisan group.

Among them, the former vice president’s plan would generate about $1.3 trillion by boosting the corporate income tax rate to 28 percent from its current level of 21 percent. Another $962 billion would come from applying Social Security taxes to earnings above $400,000.

In addition, higher capital gains and dividend taxes would raise about $448 billion under two changes Biden has floated. He would tax such earnings the same as ordinary income for taxpayers with incomes exceeding $1 million, and tax unrealized capital gains of more than $100,000 at death unless left to a surviving spouse or donated to charity.

Biden's plan would also produce about $432 billion by repealing income tax reductions from 2017’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for taxpayers with incomes above $400,000. He would restore their top individual tax rate to 39.6 percent, limit their itemized deductions and phase out business income deductions they get.

Overall, the Biden plan is “very progressive” even though taxes would climb on all income groups on average, Mermin said.

The distribution skews heavily toward those with higher income, with a 17 percent average tax increase on the top 1 percent and more than 23 percent for the top 0.1 percent. The top 20 percent would bear almost 93 percent of the tax increases.

In contrast, no quintile in the bottom 80 percent would see an average tax increase of more than 0.5 percent, with nearly all of the higher tax burden resulting from indirect effects of increased corporate income taxes.