Biden tops Trump among likely voters in Iowa as race tightens, latest Monmouth presidential poll finds

Matthew Brown, USA TODAY
·3 min read

WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Joe Biden has a tight lead over President Donald Trump in Iowa among likely voters, according to a Monmouth University poll released Wednesday.

Among likely voters, Biden takes the lead at 50%-47% in a scenario in which there is high voter turnout, a gap that only grows to 51%-46% in a low turnout scenario. Trump led by 3 points among likely voters in Monmouth’s poll last month.

The poll also found that Trump is supported by 48% of registered voters to Biden's 47%, with 2% of voters undecided. The most recent poll reflects a consistent, though narrowing, lead for the president among registered voters in the Monmouth poll.

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Biden holds a stronger lead in a lower turnout scenario because many Democrats are casting their ballots by mail this year, according to Monmouth. Over one-third of registered Iowans say they've already voted, and nearly three-fourths of those votes have gone to Biden. A low turnout on Election Day would likely mean many Republican-leaning voters decided to stay home.

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The poll found Trump is more trusted than Biden to create jobs and strengthen the economy, with 49% of registered voters preferring Trump to Biden, who had 37%. Biden, however, is more trusted to keep health care affordable and accessible, with a 44%-40% advantage.

Theresa Greenfield, the Democratic candidate challenging Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, also shows rising numbers in the poll. The race is statistically tied among registered voters, at 47%-47%, with 2% again undecided.

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Greenfield holds a 49%-47% lead over Ernst among likely voters, which is nearly identical to her 49%-46% lead over Ernst in the last Monmouth poll.

Trump looms large in the Senate race as well. Forty-five percent of Iowans felt Ernst has been too supportive of Trump while 42% felt she has given the right amount of support.

The race is currently 54% Biden and 41% Trump among registered voters in swing counties, a group of 13 counties which Hillary Clinton won by one point in 2016.

The top issue among Iowans was a concern about the potential breakdown of law and order; 47% of respondents said they were very worried about such a scenario. The second issue at the top of voters' minds is the coronavirus pandemic, with 45% of respondents saying they are very worried about it.

Among seniors, 62% said they were worried a lot about the pandemic, the highest of any demographic.

Looking to the year ahead, 36% of those polled worried about having access to medical care over the next year while 32% worried they might not have a stable income over the same period.

The poll surveyed 501 registered Iowan voters from Oct. 15-19 and has a margin of error of 4.4%.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Presidential poll: Biden leads Trump among likely voters in Iowa