Should Biden and Trump debate? Political strategists weigh in on risks for candidates

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as the presumptive nominees of their parties, are all but guaranteed to go head to head in November. But whether they will meet face to face on the debate stage remains, well, up for debate.

For months, Trump has been challenging Biden to a war of words, telling a radio host in December, “I would do as many debates as they want.”

More recently, a group of major news organizations joined the former president in calling for the candidates to commit to debates.

“If there is one thing Americans can agree on during this polarized time, it is that the stakes of this election are exceptionally high,” a dozen outlets, including CNN and Fox News, wrote in a joint statement released on April 14.

“Amidst that backdrop, there is simply no substitute for the candidates debating with each other, and before the American people, their visions for the future of our nation,” the statement added.

Still, with eight months to go until the election, Biden’s campaign has yet to commit to any televised debates.

When mulling over whether to participate, there are several risks for the Biden campaign to consider, political strategists told McClatchy News. There are others for the Trump campaign to contemplate as well.

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Risks for Biden

One of the major factors the Biden camp will need to weigh will be the president’s age and related concerns, John Feehery, a Republican strategist, told McClatchy News.

“The biggest risk for Biden is that the evidence of mental decline becomes more obvious if he makes some sort of huge gaffe or is incapable of keeping up with the debate,” Feehery said. “The fact that they have not agreed to the debates tells you that Biden’s team is not feeling confident about (his) performance.”

The president’s octogenarian status is a major issue for Americans, the vast majority of whom believe he is too old to serve another term, according to a February ABC News/Ipsos poll.

But a widely-watched debate could “be the opportunity for President Biden to allay those concerns,” Adam Geller, a Republican pollster and former Trump campaign official, told McClatchy News.

Still, even if he has a strong performance — like his recent State of the Union address — many pundits would likely find ways to argue he is mentally unfit, Leslie Marshall, a Democratic strategist and Fox News contributor, told McClatchy News.

“Biden does stutter,” Marshall said. “If he pauses, people may think that’s a mental lapse when it may not be.”

Another issue for Biden is that by sharing a stage with someone who has denied the results of the 2020 election, he’d be legitimizing those views, Marshall said.

“Do you want to help the circus and play into the madness?” Marshall said.

Prominent Democrats have articulated this point as a reason for Biden to skip the debates, three of which have been scheduled by the Commission on Presidential Debates, according to The Hill.

Former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi made the same argument in 2020, telling reporters “I wouldn’t legitimize a conversation with him,” according to NBC News.

Geller called this a weak excuse to not debate, saying, “If you feel like he’s a threat to democracy, call him out, but be there, exchange ideas and present to the American people why you deserve another four years.”

Risks for Trump

Trump, who has been clamoring for debates, should also consider that numerous polls have shown him leading Biden, both nationally and in swing states, Feehery said.

“Trump is acting more like a challenger than the polls would indicate,” Feehery said. “Typically whoever’s out in front doesn’t want to debate.”

So far, his strategy of skipping the Republican primary debates has worked, and he may want to continue using it in the general election, Marshall said.

If he does participate in debates, his demeanor on stage could potentially sap his standing in the polls, Feehery said.

“The biggest risk for Trump is if he comes off as a jerk and alienates female voters, and we know that because that’s what happened in 2020 in that first debate,” Feehery said.

“He risks looking unhinged or not as mentally viable as he and his supporters are pertaining him to be,” Marshall said.

”People tend to focus on Biden’s gaffes, but Trump has also made multiple prominent slip-ups,” Marshall said. “That will be highlighted in the debate.”

Should there even be debates?

Televised presidential debates, which have been held since 1960, are an important component of the political process, Feehery said.

“There’s plenty of evidence historically that the debates have an outsize impact on the election,” Feehery said. “They set the tone.”

As examples, he cited memorable moments from past debates, like when Ronald Reagan used humor to downplay concerns about his age or when George H.W. Bush looked at his watch during a debate against Bill Clinton — a moment interpreted by some as a sign of disinterest or boredom.

“Whatever any potential downside, it’s really outweighed by the benefit that debates give to voters to help inform their decision,” Geller said.

Marshall disagrees, noting that when the debates first began — in an era without the internet and greater access to the candidates — they genuinely helped voters fill in gaps in their knowledge.

“Now, you have so much access to these individuals and statements that are being made. It’s almost like these two have been debating since Biden won in 2020,” Marshall said. “As a voter I don’t see much of a benefit. I know where Biden stands and I know where Trump stands.”

It’s also important to note that the most articulate or intelligent candidate is not always seen as the winner, Marshall said. “Often it’s the candidate you’d like to have a beer with.”

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