Biden or Trump? Why the outcome of the 2024 election may not matter
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This is the least important election of our lifetimes.
That’s a taboo sentiment in politics since publicity, donations and votes depend on an electorate scared out of its collective mind. Consultants need to convince people that the nation will collapse if the other guy wins.
But it will be tough for voters to stomach this message of doom and gloom. We’ve had enough of both for the past decade.
We can expect little but negative campaigning this year because both front-runners have so few positives worthy of gloating over.
Instead of worrying what will happen if the other guy wins, most Americans are worried about either of them winning.
2024 election offers choices few want
A Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll asked registered voters if they’re happy with another Biden-Trump matchup. Neither campaign will be happy with the results.
Only about a third of respondents said this is “a good choice for voters,” while 64% said “the country needs another alternative.”
While 50% of Republicans seem satisfied with Trump, a whopping 71% of Democrats oppose this rerun of 2020.
Nikki Haley, who technically remains in the GOP race, said, “Most Americans do not want a rematch between Biden and Trump … The first party to retire its 80-year-old candidate is going to be the party that wins this election.”
She tested this message in the recent Nevada primary and came in second place. Who won first? “None of the above.”
Trump wasn’t even on the ballot.
Most voters want neither Trump nor Biden
While the two parties’ hardcore bases seem content with their picks, most Americans look longingly toward a third option.
When pollsters asked voters if they would “consider an independent moderate candidate running for the presidency,” 55% answered yes.
Supporting a generic “moderate” usually fails once a flesh-and-blood candidate throws his or her hat into the ring. (My idea of a centrist is Ron Swanson from “Parks and Rec,” but I assume most disagree.)
Why no presidential candidates: Want to debate anymore
Still, it’s striking how little passion most Americans have for either candidate with an election just nine months away. Instead of putting out yard signs and slapping bumper stickers on cars, people want to avoid our depressing politics as much as possible.
According to the same poll, 55% of voters think Biden “is unable to run a successful campaign” while 50% believe Trump’s legal troubles “make it impossible” for him to run for president.
A few outside possibilities could change one of the major party candidates, but all are ugly to contemplate. As bad as the current choice is, no one hopes for a major health crisis or a “black swan” event such as war or terror.
What will down-ballot candidates do?
If voter apathy holds, 2024 could mark a significant drop in election turnout. A record-breaking number of ballots was cast in 2020, resulting in a turnout of 66.6%. (An apt number, if you think about it.)
Given Americans’ political malaise, November will likely show a collapse in overall votes, along with reduced viewership of party conventions. Debates will go unviewed because they will never be held.
Biden will claim he can’t appear on the same stage as a “threat to democracy,” and Trump will claim he’s too busy fighting his latest indictment. The real reason is that they’re both too old, but hardcore partisans will accept the lame excuses.
Voters would rather watch Netflix, anyway.
The real challenge falls upon down-ballot candidates who will get lost in the shuffle. They need to motivate a tuned-out electorate, hopefully with a few positive messages that can cut through the angry noise at the top of the ticket.
Jon Gabriel, a Mesa resident, is editor-in-chief of Ricochet.com and a contributor to The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com. On Twitter: @exjon.
This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Biden vs. Trump could make the 2024 election the most inconsequential
