Biden's South Carolina win gives me hope that Democrats will reject Sanders and beat Trump
On Feb. 4, 2004, I clambered atop my desk in the open floor-plan office of the Wesley Clark for President Campaign. This being somewhat unusual, even in the chaos of a campaign headquarters, the room hushed quickly.
With all the enthusiasm I could muster, I informed the Clark team that we were, starting immediately, all volunteers. Despite placing third in New Hampshire, second in a few other states, and first in the Oklahoma primary, our campaign was dying. Our polls were dropping, and money was drying up; we needed every dime to keep the lights on and the candidate on the road. Staff salaries were being suspended, along with other campaign luxuries, like advertising and field work.
About 10 days ago, I’m guessing a senior staffer at the Joe Biden campaign headquarters was eyeing her desk warily. Things were looking a bit grim. But I wouldn’t be surprised if she jumped up on that thing Sunday with a very different message for the team: “We. Are. Back.”
Heading for the lifeboats just days ago
Presidential campaigns area like small boats in high seas, buffeted by massive waves of political momentum. A candidacy that looks dead in the water in December, like John Kerry’s in the 2004 cycle, can be cruising to the nomination in March. And a smooth sailing front-runner, like Hillary Clinton in 2008, can be capsized by reality when voters start trudging to caucuses in the Iowa winter.
In the 2020 race, Democratic moderates like me were heading for the lifeboats just last week. No one seemed obviously positioned to stop Sen. Bernie Sanders. Though at least two-thirds of Democratic voters were against him, the other candidates were splintering the remaining vote in ways that seemed likely to give him a major lead in pledged delegates.
It’s impossible to overstate how scary that was for many Democrats. We would regard a second Trump term as a catastrophe, with his right-wing demagoguery, bigotry, isolationism, climate denial, contempt for the rule of law, and obsession with loyalty and personal glory threatening our future in unprecedented ways. And when we look at Bernie Sanders, we see Trump’s path back to the White House and the Republicans’ best chance at regaining the House majority.
If Sanders were to win the nomination, his proud connection to socialism and his 50-year record of extremism would be enough to doom his chances. Add to that his unpopular campaign proposals to double the size of the government, sharply raise middle-class taxes, and take private health insurance from 180 million Americans, and you hand the GOP a deadly arsenal of material to use against both Sanders and other Democrats on the ballot.
Roller coaster performance: It's late. Can Joe Biden make a South Carolina-Super Tuesday comeback?
But the political winds may have shifted. On Saturday, roughly half of South Carolina Democrats voted for Biden, with Sanders almost 30 points behind. That matters, because it will dampen Sanders’ momentum heading into the massive Super Tuesday primary. And it might get voters in those states to do what the moderate candidates refuse to do: settle on one to carry the banner forward.
Because South Carolina held the first primary with a diverse electorate, it was the first significant test for Sanders, and he failed it. The Vermont senator lost narrowly in Iowa and won by a hair in his neighboring New Hampshire, but both of those electorates are almost entirely white. He won easily in Nevada, which is diverse, but he has always benefited from the undemocratic methods in caucus states. The time-consuming gatherings reward candidates with diehard supporters and penalize those who rely on voters with work or family commitments that might prevent them from spending hours at their polling place.
Plenty of time to catch up with Sanders
African Americans, who constitute more than 60% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina, were voting in overwhelming numbers for the first time in this election cycle. And they spoke loudly in rejecting the erstwhile front-runner. Also, the results in South Carolina mean that Biden has surpassed Sanders in the cumulative popular vote of the four contests to date.
Now, we turn to the 15 places voting next. While the big states of California and Texas have gotten most of the pundit attention, states like Alabama, Arkansas and North Carolina also will be voting. They have heavy concentrations of black primary voters and often follow South Carolina's lead, so they likely will not be kind to Sanders. He will, of course, get his share of wins, with so many moderates still in the race. But that dynamic too could shift quickly.
His brand's a flop: Democrats court doom by backing Bernie Sanders. His ideas are toxic outside blue America.
If the rest of the field narrows after Tuesday, the remaining moderate will be able to consolidate a much larger share of the non-Sanders vote in future contests. And while Super Tuesday is a major marker, about two-thirds of the delegates needed for the nomination will still be up for grabs after that vote. So there will be plenty of opportunity for a Sanders opponent to catch him.
Sadly, consolidation means that in several campaign offices this week, staffers will climb onto their desks to break the bad news. But happily for the majority of Democrats, who are eager to prevent a democratic socialist revolutionary from seizing the top of the ticket in the fall, that will make this a much more competitive race for the nomination.
Matt Bennett, executive vice president and co-founder of Third Way, has served on five presidential campaigns, including as Director of Communications for Clark for President 2004. Follow him on Twitter: @ThirdWayMattB
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Biden gives moderate Democrats hope that Trump won't win another term
