Big 12 Power Rankings: Texas Longhorns remain in first, but there is time for chaos
Only one week remains in the regular season, but the Big 12 standings are so jumbled that 128 different scenarios exist for teams trying to reach the conference championship game.
The Big 12 has done a terrible job explaining (and possibly enforcing) its complicated tiebreaker rules this year, so the league office will be hoping for a chalk finish that sends two teams to Arlington, Texas, without a heated debate about how they got there.
For now, Texas is all alone in first place at 7-1. But Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are all tied for second at 6-2. And don’t forget Iowa State, Texas Tech and West Virginia all hoping for chaos at 5-3.
Just about every game on the schedule has league championship implications. The few that don’t could impact bowl games or influence a school’s decision to retain or part ways with a coach.
It should be an exciting final weekend for Big 12 football.
That leads us into this week’s Big 12 Power Rankings:
1. Texas (10-1, 7-1 Big 12)
Last game: 26-16 win at Iowa State
Next game: Texas Tech
Analysis: Some thought the Longhorns might be in trouble on the road against Iowa State without top running back Jonathon Brooks in uniform while he recovers from an injury. But his replacement, CJ Baxter, rushed for 117 yards and Texas won by double digits. Now the only thing standing between Texas and a first-place finish in the Big 12 standings is Texas Tech. This is the first time Texas has reached 10 wins in the regular season since 2009.
2. Oklahoma State (8-3, 6-2 Big 12)
Last game: 43-30 win at Houston
Next game: BYU
Analysis: The Cowboys were in trouble against Houston when they fell behind 14-3 in the first quarter. They were playing like their season ended with an emotional win over Oklahoma this month. But Mike Gundy’s team turned things around and won 43-30 thanks to 164 yards from Ollie Gordon. The Pokes are now in excellent shape to play the Longhorns in the Big 12 championship game. If both teams win this weekend, that’s your title matchup.
3. Kansas State (8-3, 6-2 Big 12)
Last game: 31-27 win at Kansas
Next game: Iowa State
Analysis: The Wildcats picked up their first victory over a ranked team this season when they came from behind to beat the Jayhawks in the Sunflower Showdown. K-State will be rooting hard for Texas Tech, BYU and TCU this weekend. If the right combination of those teams win, and the Wildcats beat Iowa State, then they will advance to Arlington, Texas. Regardless of what happens, they are set up for a nice bowl trip this postseason. The Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando and the Alamo Bowl in San Antonio are both possibilities.
4. Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2 Big 12)
Last game: 31-24 win at BYU
Next game: TCU
Analysis: How long will Dillon Gabriel remain sidelined with an injury? That is an important question this week. Oklahoma survived without him against BYU with Jackson Arnold stepping in to throw for 33 yards. But things could be harder for the Sooners when they host TCU on Black Friday. Oklahoma was lost in the games it played without Gabriel last season.
5. Texas Tech (6-5, 5-3 Big 12)
Last game: 24-23 win over UCF
Next game: at Texas
Analysis: Remember when many, including yours truly, were touting Texas Tech as a preseason sleeper in the Big 12? Well, the Red Raiders are starting to live up to that hype. Forget for a moment that they started the year 3-5, they are playing like one of the best teams in the Big 12 at the moment. Having a healthy quarterback has made all the difference. I wouldn’t put it past Behren Morton and company throwing a scare into Texas on Friday.
6. Kansas (7-4, 4-4 Big 12)
Last game: 31-27 loss to K-State
Next game: at Cincinnati
Analysis: The Jayhawks have clearly closed the gap on their in-state rivals, but they were unable to take advantage of a 27-16 lead and lost to K-State for the 15th straight season on Saturday. That loss knocked them out of the running for a conference championship, but KU still has much to play for. It can improve its bowl stock by beating Cincinnati in the regular-season finale for both teams.
7. Iowa State (6-5, 5-3 Big 12)
Last game: 26-16 loss to Texas
Next game: at K-State
Analysis: Iowa State may not have the same kind of home-field advantage that it once did under Matt Campbell. The Cyclones hosted Kansas and Texas in chilly conditions for night games and they never threatened to beat either team.
8. West Virginia (7-4, 5-3 Big 12)
Last game: 42-21 win over Cincinnati
Next game: at Baylor
Analysis: The Mountaineers won the Big 12 schedule lottery this season. They could finish 9-3 without beating a single quality team. Take a look at their wins: Duquesne, Pittsburgh, Texas Tech, TCU, UCF, BYU and Cincinnati. Only one of those teams is currently bowl eligible.
9. UCF (5-6, 2-6 Big 12)
Last game: 24-23 loss at Texas Tech
Next game: Houston
Analysis: The Knights have no one to blame but themselves for their most recent loss at Texas Tech. They would have beaten the Red Raiders with better clock management at the end of the first half. Letting time expire when you’re at the goal line is unforgivable.
10. TCU (5-6, 3-5 Big 12)
Last game: 42-17 win over Baylor
Next game: at Oklahoma
Analysis: The Horned Frogs are finally starting to show signs of life on offense. TCU erupted for 42 points and 531 yards in a blowout win against Baylor. Can Josh Hoover and the Frogs play spoilers against Oklahoma?
11. Houston (4-7, 2-6 Big 12)
Last game: 43-30 loss to Oklahoma State
Next game: at UCF
Analysis: It may be time for Houston to part ways with Dana Holgorsen. His familiarity with the Big 12 seemed like it would be an advantage for the Cougars as they transitioned into a new league. But it hasn’t worked out that way. If not for a miracle Hail Mary touchdown on the final play against West Virginia this team would only have three wins.
12. Cincinnati (3-8, 1-7 Big 12)
Last game: 42-21 loss at West Virginia
Next game: Kansas
Analysis: Turns out beating Houston wasn’t much of an accomplishment for Cincinnati. The Bearcats were no match for West Virginia on Saturday.
13. Baylor (3-8, 2-6 Big 12)
Last game: 42-17 loss at TCU
Next game: West Virginia
Analysis: Dave Aranda might also be on the hot seat. He got off to a great start in Waco and even won a Big 12 championship. But the Bears have struggled just to be competitive in games this season.
14. BYU (5-6, 2-6 Big 12)
Last game: 31-24 loss to BYU
Next game: at Oklahoma State
Analysis: The Cougars threw a scare into Oklahoma, but I doubt they do the same against Oklahoma State this weekend on the road. It’s been a disappointing first year in the Big 12 for BYU.
