Big-name football schools find recruiting gold in NC, in-state programs take a hit

Sunday afternoon, Providence Day wide receiver Jordan Shipp, a top 10 college football recruit in North Carolina, committed to Mack Brown’s Tar Heels in Chapel Hill.

Among the Class of 2024, that’s becoming a rarity — a top N.C. high school football recruit staying home.

Only six players in 247 Sports’ ranking of the top 25 recruits in North Carolina are staying in North Carolina: Fuquay-Varina’s Malcom Ziglar (UNC), Shipp (UNC), Cape Fear’s Jeremiah Melvin (Wake Forest), Reagan’s Landan Callahan (Duke), Northwest Guilford’s Trenton Cloud (East Carolina) and Providence Day’s Brody Barnhardt (N.C. State).

Michigan has three commitments among the state’s top 25 recruits — more than any in-state school. Notre Dame also has three.

In the Class of 2023, 11 of the top 25 players went to in-state schools.

In 2022, 17 of the top 25 stayed in state.

Times are changing fast.

“If anybody in the state can figure out how to keep all of our kids in state, we can have a top five national powerhouse every year,” Providence Day coach Chad Grier said. “In North Carolina, you have so many great schools with great fan bases and traditions, it’s hard for one (school) to dominate, and it’s hard to say now why kids are leaving the state. But I think part of it is our kids are now on more of a national level.”

Some of the area’s best are heading out

Grier’s quarterback, Jadyn Davis, is the reigning N.C. Mr. Football and is ranked No. 1 in North Carolina, regardless of position. He’s heading to Michigan. No. 2 Amaris Williams of Clinton has committed to Florida. No. 3 Alex Taylor of Greensboro Grimsley is likely heading to Clemson, and No. 4 Cayden Jones of Christ School has committed to Alabama.

“Listen,” Grier said, “Atlanta’s been Atlanta for awhile, and Charlotte is now being viewed as being as fertile a recruiting ground as Atlanta, but with a little less competition. It used to be the MAC schools would come here and now Power 5s are all over Charlotte, and it’s statewide, too. They’re coming from everywhere.”

Grier said another big factor is the NFL’s Carolina Panthers moving to Charlotte in the mid 1990s. Charlotte-area high school football quickly rose to prominence and other areas in the state began to emphasize the sport to catch up.

“Back in the day,” Grier said, “Fayetteville seemed like it was where the best football was played in North Carolina. As Charlotte has grown, you have more families moving here. NFL players and their friends are coming here, too, settling down, having kids. Some of them are coaching and you now have players coming up with higher IQs, and these pros are in town training and developing them. Charlotte has become the most dominant place for high school football, but Greensboro’s got great kids. Raleigh, the last couple of years, too. The football level’s just been raised in North Carolina.”

Power 5s taking notice

West Charlotte coach Sam Greiner said the big name Power 5 schools are taking notice of just how high that level has risen.

“Everybody is now recognizing North Carolina as one of the best recruiting places in the nation,” Greiner said. “Some of the top-tier schools — Oklahoma, Michigan and even Southern California — have dipped their toe into the N.C. water this past year. They know if they get a kid from this area, they are going to perform at the next level. The ‘miss’ ratio (with a recruit not panning out) is a lot better. You know you’re not missing when you get a kid from the Charlotte-area. That’s the key.”

Greiner points to recent recruits like Clemson All-ACC star Will Shipley and North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, a potential Heisman candidate this fall, having breakout seasons and careers. Both are from the immediate Charlotte-area.

Greiner said that type of success attracts the attention of coaches from traditional powers like Michigan, Georgia and Alabama. And Greiner said that helped change the perception of N.C. recruiting really, really fast.

“Think about Will Shipley going to Clemson (three years ago),” Greiner said. “Everybody was saying, ‘I don’t know if Shipley can play there.’ He became the first ACC player to make all-conference in three categories. Look at (Maye), who went to Chapel Hill two years ago. I was on record saying he was the best I’d ever seen in high school, and now he could win the Heisman. “

NC college struggles and NIL

Greiner points to a few other factors that he thinks may be influencing some top-tier talent to leave— school performance and NIL (name, image and likeness deals.)

“You’ve got Michigan, Oklahoma, (Southern Cal), and at those schools those kids are getting a minimum (NIL deal) of $50,000,” Greiner said. “The top dogs from North Carolina, they’re still going to get their NIL money, but kids are looking at that. Now that shouldn’t be the prime reason they go somewhere else.

“North Carolina schools will develop a guy. Look at all the 2- and 3-star guys from N.C. State the last few years. By year three, they’re (NFL) draft pick quality. You go to (Southern Cal), and if you’re a guy that has to wait three years, they want you to transfer. So some kids are not looking at the big picture.”

Greiner said kids are also looking really hard at how local schools are performing on the field.

North Carolina hasn’t had a double-digit winning season since 2015. The Tar Heels have also had three losing seasons since then, often struggling on defense. N.C. State has had three straight winning seasons but hasn’t played in the ACC championship game since it began in 2005.

Wake Forest, which beat Georgia Tech in 2006, is the only N.C. team to win the ACC Championship game. And no N.C. team has reached the College Football Playoff.

“North Carolina schools haven’t performed well lately,” Greiner said, “and it’s hurt them.”

‘Better opportunities out of state’

Greiner’s star player at West Charlotte this season is 17-year-old linebacker Jaden Smith.

Smith committed to Michigan earlier this summer and 247 Sports ranks him as the state’s 13th best overall prospect.

Smith said playing for a big-time winning program — with a big-time tradition — is something that attracted him and other players like him to look outside North Carolina for college.

Michigan was the No. 2 seed in the College Football Playoff this past season, and lost to No. 3 TCU in the semifinals.

“I think there are better opportunities out of state than in-state,” Smith said. “I think some people are tired of being in-state and want to go somewhere far. Some kids who do go in-state, they probably think they’ll have a better chance to start freshman year than out of state.”

Smith said when he visited programs like Southern California, the feeling he got was much different than in-state schools with less history and tradition.

“When I went to N.C. State, I was happy to go there,” he said, “and I go there, and it’s like the coaches didn’t (spend time) with me like I thought they would. I barely got to talk to my position coach, and I never met the head coach. I was there to be there. I went to Southern Cal and the energy was just different.”

Smith said he ultimately chose Michigan for the chance to play for a Big 10 championship and a shot at the CFP.

“That’s a very big deal for me,” he said. “I know I may have to wait and might not start automatically, but it’s amazing to be part of a good team that’s been winning championships.

“It’s better than being in-state.”

247 Sports NC Top 25