Big Ten football preview: Why Michigan State vs. Michigan will grab everyone's attention

At the dawn of a new season, the remnants of last fall remain.

They’re seen in the streams of confetti from Michigan football’s Big Ten title celebration, the pieces of a shattered Ohio State team that finally lost The Game and the contrails of Michigan State football’s stunning ascent in Mel Tucker’s second season. The events of the 2021 season disrupted the natural order in a conference long dominated by the Buckeyes. Were they signs of things to come or just a series of one-off occurrences?

These questions will soon be answered. In the meantime, the Free Press offers a primer of what to look for in the coming months, including some of the biggest games, the most notable stars and the most interesting narratives looming over the conference.

Three big games

Oct. 29: Michigan State at Michigan

When Mark Dantonio retired following the 2019 season, some wondered if Michigan would regain the upper hand in one of the most underrated rivalries in college football. Back then, of course, no one saw Tuck comin’. The Wolverines certainly didn’t in 2020, when Tucker led the Spartans to a jaw-dropping upset inside an empty Big House.

Last year, he scored another momentous victory when MSU prevailed in a 37-33 thriller between top-10 teams in East Lansing. It was a continuation of Dantonio’s success against the Wolverines, who are just 4-10 in their past 14 meetings with the Spartans. Jim Harbaugh, whose losing record against MSU is one of the black marks of his coaching tenure, feels pressure to deliver a positive result against an in-state rival that has again become a thorn in his side. With Tuck (and Co.) comin’ to Ann Arbor again, he’ll get that shot.

Nov. 12: Wisconsin at Iowa

Only three programs in the West Division have made multiple appearances in the Big Ten championship game. Iowa and Wisconsin are two of them. The Hawkeyes represented their side of the conference last season and figure to be in contention again this season. The offense was putrid in 2021, yet Iowa still squeezed out 10 victories. Wisconsin faced its own struggles trying to find the end zone last fall. But the Badgers accrued momentum as their running game did. This matchup figures to be an old-fashioned slugfest at the line of scrimmage, similiar to Big Ten games of old.

Nov. 26: Michigan at Ohio State

The 2021 result was surprising. But the way it was achieved may have been more shocking. The Wolverines whipped Ohio State at the line of scrimmage in their 42-27 win last November as they flipped the script in a rivalry dominated this century by their red-clad enemy. The win was Michigan’s first in the series since 2011, and it positioned U-M to claim its first Big Ten title in 17 years.

OSU spent this past offseason contemplating the significance of that loss and plotting its revenge. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day also won’t forget the veiled personal shot Harbaugh delivered after he finally conquered his arch-nemesis. All those details will provide tinder for a matchup set for Columbus, where U-M hasn’t won since 2000.

Three big players

QB C.J. Stroud, Ohio State

Judged by the loftiest of standards, Stroud’s performance in his first few games last season invited skepticism. But then he got rolling. By the end of the year, he was at the Heisman Trophy ceremony in New York with a fourth-place finish in the voting. Entering this season, he’s the favorite to win the award.

Stroud’s record, after all, is rather unimpeachable. In 2021, he threw for 4,435 yards and delivered 44 touchdown passes against only six interceptions. His 91.6 total QBR ranked first in the nation. Now, he’s back with a year of experience under his belt and a support cast that includes three teammates on the Associated Press' preseason All-America team.

RB Braelon Allen, Wisconsin

Wisconsin’s history is rife with great running backs: From Ron Dayne to Montee Ball to Melvin Gordon to Jonathan Taylor, Madison has been home to some of the sport’s most successful rushers. Add Allen to the list after he burst on the scene last season. The then-freshman gained 1,268 yards on 186 attempts, averaging 6.8 per tote.

Allen’s emergence was serendipitous after Jalen Berger, now at MSU, flamed out and was dismissed from the team. Allen then took the ball and ran with it into the record books, becoming the first freshman to rush for 100 or more yards in seven consecutive games. It will be interesting to see what he does for an encore this fall.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

By the end of last season, Smith-Njigba may have been the most electrifying receiver in college football. His performance in a Rose Bowl victory over Utah — a 15-catch, 347-yard, three-touchdown tour de force — captivated the country and made NFL executives salivate. But they’ll have to wait a bit more for the receiver who seems a surefire top-10 draft pick. With Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave gone, Smith-Njigba should dominate the stat books and become Stroud’s wingman in their quest to restore OSU as the best team in the Big Ten.

Three bold predictions

1. MSU-OSU will be decided by one score

The losses, more than the wins, drive most successful coaches. So, it is no surprise that the Spartans’ embarrassing 56-7 shellacking in Columbus lit a fire under Tucker. That defeat exposed MSU’s greatest weaknesses. So, Tucker made a couple of key hires aimed at improving the pass rush while getting his hands dirty again by working directly with the cornerbacks. In addition, he upgraded the talent base in the back seven — adding a pair of transfers at linebacker and another at defensive back.

Were all these moves designed solely to give MSU a better chance against Ohio State? Maybe not. But they seemed to reveal Tucker’s urge to close the gap between the two teams. With Oct. 8's matchup against the Buckeyes set for East Lansing, expect MSU to be raring to go. As the end of this game nears, don’t be surprised to see the Spartans go the distance with Ohio State.

2. Michigan’s weak schedule will hurt its CFP chances

When pressed on the subject at Big Ten media days, Jim Harbaugh didn’t seem keen on discussing the Wolverines’ feeble nonconference schedule. After all, what could he say about a lineup featuring Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn in consecutive weeks? Those three went a combined 10-27 last season and are each entering its first year with a new coach. The Wolverines should breeze through this stretch and then waltz through many of their remaining games, which include home dates against Maryland, Nebraska and Illinois.

Reaching 10 victories seems achievable. Eleven wins aren’t far-fetched. But the Wolverines will have little margin of error if they have designs on making their second consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoff. A loss (or two) could put them in a precarious spot, especially if they are competing against several candidates with similar records and stiffer schedules.

3. Taulia Tagovailoa will lead the Big Ten in passing

Stroud may be the Heisman favorite, but don't be surprised if Maryland quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa tops the conference in passing. Tagovailoa, the former Alabama transfer, will lead a dynamic offense that features one of the Big Ten's best receiving corps. Dontay Demus, Rakim Jarrett and Jacob Copeland will stretch opposing secondaries and give Tagovailoa plenty of options in an air attack that ranked third in the league last season. Considering that the Terps' defense should make most of their competitive games shootouts, there is a good chance Tagovailoa will throw until the final whistle. That is a recipe for an impressive stat line.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Big Ten football preview: MSU vs. Michigan football is a must-watch