Bigger margins, more counties, but fewer votes? 5 facts about Gov. Andy Beshear’s win

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear won in more convincing fashion Tuesday than he did in 2019, and he did so across much of the state, not just in the urban centers of Louisville, Lexington and Northern Kentucky.

A review of the electoral map reveals some clues to Beshear’s victory over his Republican challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron:

Beshear enjoyed a more comfortable margin overall this time

Much has been said about Beshear’s squeaker of an election in 2019 over Republican Gov. Matt Bevin. Beshear won that year by barely 5,000 votes out of more than 1.4 million cast. The final tally was 49.2% for Beshear and 48.8% for Bevin. A third-party candidate, Libertarian John Hicks, won 2%.

Bevin refused to concede for nine days until a recanvass of votes verified that he did indeed lose.

The fact that Beshear barely won — and he faced an unpopular incumbent like Bevin, who alienated large groups of people with his incendiary remarks — has been cited to make him look weak politically.

On Tuesday, however, after four years of making his own sometimes-controversial decisions and a bruising re-election campaign, Beshear beat Cameron by about 67,000 votes out of more than 1.3 million votes cast.

It was not a landslide, but Beshear unofficial results show the incumbent Democrat earned 52.5% of the vote to Cameron’s 47.5%.

This time, there were no doubts: Cameron delivered his concession speech relatively early Tuesday night after national media outlets declared Beshear the winner just before 9 p.m.

Beshear conquered more territory

Beshear won 23 of Kentucky’s 120 counties in 2019. Four years later, he appears to have won 29 counties.

Among the governor’s notable pickups Tuesday were Owensboro’s Daviess County — Eastern Kentucky’s Letcher, Perry and Powell counties — and Clark and Bourbon counties, which are outside Lexington with a mix of suburban development and rural countryside.

Only southern Kentucky, along the Tennessee state line, and far-western Kentucky remained entirely outside of Beshear’s grasp.

Beshear ran up the score

Voters seem to like what they’ve seen in Beshear. In most of the places he won Tuesday, he did so more decisively than in 2019.

In Louisville’s urban Jefferson County, he went from taking 67% of the vote four years ago to 70% this time. In Lexington’s urban Fayette County, he went from 65% to 72%.

In rural Elliott County, he went from 53% to 59%. In suburban Kenton County, he went from 49.5% to 53%.

Even in Henderson County, home of Republican state Sen. Robby Mills — Cameron’s running mate — Beshear went from 51% to 56% over four years.

Beshear did not manage to win Cameron’s native Hardin County, but he came very close, going from 46.5% in 2019 to 49.7% this time.

Perhaps it was those enormous electric vehicle battery plants, the biggest ones on “planet Earth” being constructed on Interstate 65. Beshear may have mentioned them once or twice in his campaign speeches.

Beshear cut a path through Trump country

It almost goes without saying that Beshear did well in many counties that Republican President Donald Trump took in 2020, because Trump only lost two Kentucky counties that year — Jefferson and Fayette. Trump won Kentucky over Joe Biden by nearly 26 points that year.

Twenty-seven of Beshear’s 29 counties were Trump counties. It’s an obvious fact: Any Democrat who can’t win in a Trump county isn’t getting elected to statewide office here anymore.

What’s surprising is how well the Democratic governor performed — despite a Trump-endorsed challenger — in nearly two dozen counties that Trump dominated with more than 60% of the vote in 2020. Many of them were Eastern Kentucky coalfield counties, some of which are benefiting from Beshear’s flood relief efforts.

Among other counties, Beshear collected Bath (which Trump won by 70.8%), Breathitt (Trump won by 75.3%), Elliott (Trump won by 75%), Knott (Trump won by 76.5%) and Letcher (Trump won with 79.1%).

For national elections, these have been bright, ruby red counties. But they backed Beshear Tuesday.

But fewer voters showed up this time

Voter turnout fell from 42 percent in 2019 to 38 percent this year.

So, Beshear turned in a more impressive performance than he did four years ago, but he actually won fewer votes, dropping from 709,846 when he ousted Bevin in 2019 to 693,441 on Tuesday.

The math works because Cameron did worse than Bevin, getting 626,350 votes to Bevin’s 704,760.

The top vote-getter on Tuesday’s ballot turned out to be Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams, who won re-election with 783,695 votes.

Adams was closely followed by Republican Treasurer Allison Ball, who won a new office, state auditor, with 781,682 votes.