Industry Insiders Say the Pandemic-Fueled Bike Shortage Will Likely Continue for the Foreseeable Future
With COVID and its ensuing variants forcing people outdoors to recreate, many bike shops have juggled this greater demand with increasingly unreliable inventories. And the bike and component shortage that began in 2020 continues to cause havoc.
Derek Fetko, co-owner of On Your Left Cycles in Louisville, Kentucky, said the average wait time for his customers for a new bike is anywhere between six and 18 months.
“Chains, cassettes, brake pads, tires, and drivetrain kits are also a big wait,” Fetko said. “I’d say it’s actually gotten worse [as the pandemic has progressed].”
Charlie Revard, co-owner of The Bike Line in Indianapolis, also said he feels the pain. At the height of the initial pandemic bike-buying frenzy, The Bike Line bought the entire inventory of Linus cruiser bikes—a brand that they typically don’t carry—from a dealer that went out of business just before the pandemic. Those bikes were gone in fewer than six weeks.
Everywhere, the demand for hybrids and lower-end bicycles was huge. Now it’s seemingly the opposite: Brands have produced more hybrids and entry-level bikes, but can’t keep up with demand for higher-end bikes because of a lack of components. The Bike Line added two additional brands to its everyday lineup in an effort to keep up with demand, but still, the current wait for a popular mid-range full-suspension mountain bike is June... of 2023.
So what’s causing the continued delays? There are several factors.
Supply-chain problems
A logjam happening at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the largest inbound ports in the United States and where the majority of overseas exports arrive, has added weeks to shipping times. Chris Holmes, company spokesman for Marin Bikes, told Bicycling the company has thousands of bikes “just sitting on the ocean” right now.
“We’re producing more product than ever before, but shipping containers are scarce everywhere,” said SRAM spokesman Michael Zellmann. “Shipping delays aren’t just a cycling problem, it’s happening everywhere, across all industries.”
Those challenges, along with overwhelmed logistical support and labor shortages, have hamstrung efforts to get products on shelves. Import fees have also been raised, which, along with increased demand, helps explain why you’re paying more for parts and bikes.
On the manufacturing side, increased demand continues to overwhelm many companies. Component manufacturers just can’t keep up with bike brands’ and retailers’ needs without building costly additional infrastructure. Not only are raw materials often costlier and harder to come by, but processing them has also become more challenging.
Zellmann says SRAM invested millions in additional equipment, hired more than 500 new employees across all levels, and its factories continue to work at “beyond 100-percent capacity.” Despite this and similar efforts from other manufacturers, he believes industry-wide shortages will likely continue for at least six to 12 months.
Smaller shops and brands are faring the worst
Larger brands aren’t immune to the component shortages needed to build their bikes, but because of the sheer size of their orders, they can weather the storm a bit easier than mid-sized and smaller companies.
“These big companies can leverage their size [when it comes to purchasing materials and buying factory time],” said PNW Components owner Aaron Kerson at the beginning of the pandemic. “So [by] spring, all the large brands will have the larger market share while the small- to mid-sized brands are playing catch up.”
Holmes said Marin is lucky to have its own dedicated frame factory, so it’s not competing with other, larger bike brands for assembly-line time. But once those frames are created, they still need to be built up. In the early days of COVID, the wait for components from some of Marin’s suppliers was seven months; now certain crucial parts have a 900-day lead time. For the last 18 months, Marin has been forced to occasionally use comparable components to the ones originally spec’ed for their bikes.
Before the pandemic, most local bike shops had pared down their inventory, using the manufacturer as their de facto warehouse. But in order to meet customer demand, many have reverted back to the old way of pre-buying more products. But if bike demand stops as quickly as it started, those retailers could be on the hook for potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars in inventory.
“Bike brands are protecting themselves, but not necessarily the retailers they work with,” Revard said. “The general attitude is ‘figure it out [for yourself].’”
Rick Vosper, a writer for Bicycle Retailer and Industry News, wrote that some leading industry insiders are predicting a sudden inventory correction, where after months of shortages, shops will be inundated with new product and forced to slash prices to offload them. That thought is likely in the back of every bike-shop manager’s head when they place yet another supplier order.
In the meantime, the shortages still remain. Even if shops are able to buy certain parts, others can be harder to come by, meaning a repair bike could be hanging in storage for weeks or months while waiting for that one crucial product.
‘We’ve definitely invested more [in inventory] so we’ll actually have parts to fix bikes,” Fetko said. “We’re sitting on more product than ever, but at the same time we also have instances where we can’t fix bikes due to lack of product. This, paired with missing sales left and right for complete bikes, makes paying the bills challenging. It’s more important than ever that people try and support their local bike shop, or eventually they will disappear.”
While some shops struggle to find parts, other retailers bought massive quantities and are now selling those components on Amazon or Facebook Marketplace at inflated prices.
Bike shortage tips
So how should you deal with these continued supply problems? Nearly everyone Bicycling spoke to suggests preventative maintenance may be the best way to keep your current bike rolling.
“Folks who recoil at things like tiny cuts in a road tire should accept that they happen and simply keep up with checking on the cuts, booting behind them if necessary,” said Washington D.C.-based bike advocate Rudi Riet. “To get maximum use out of the expendable component, I’ve switched to cheaper, heavier chains with longer wear life and rotate or replace them more often so I can extend the life of the more expensive cassettes and chainrings.”
Let the employees at your bike shop know what you’re looking for; if another customer backs out of a purchase or the shop lucks into some unexpected inventory, you may be the first to get a call.
The used bike market may also be a good route, assuming you are mechanically inclined and can identify if the bike or part is in sound, working condition.
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