Bill filed to ban abortion in NC — would NC voters support it? Surveys say ‘No!’
Three Republican lawmakers in the General Assembly are sponsoring a bill to prohibit abortion in North Carolina, while voter opinion surveys conducted since late summer — some from right-wing organizations — say most voters oppose an abortion ban.
An average of the results of five surveys conducted from August to the beginning of March says nearly 57% of North Carolina voters want to keep abortion legal in some form while nearly 35% want it banned.
With last summer’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling canceling the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that protected American abortion rights for nearly 50 years, Republican leaders in the GOP-majority state legislature have said they plan to tighten North Carolina’s abortion laws. Existing law allows abortion on demand through the 20th week of pregnancy.
The question for the public: How tight could the new abortion restrictions be?
‘Human Life Protection Act of 2023’ would outlaw abortion from the moment of conception
The abortion ban bill filed on March 29 may be too strict for the legislature’s Republican leaders, as the House speaker and Senate president pro tem have publicly discussed allowing abortion to remain legal during the early weeks to months of pregnancy.
House Bill 533 is entitled the “Human Life Protection Act of 2023.” It would outlaw abortion from the moment of conception unless the pregnancy poses a risk of death or “substantial impairment of a major bodily function” for the mother. It has no exceptions for rape or incest.
Those convicted of providing an abortion would face punishments of at least 12 years in prison, up to a maximum of life without parole. They also would be fined at least $100,000.
The bill is sponsored by Republican Reps. Keith Kidwell of Beaufort County, Ben Moss of Richmond County, and Edward Goodwin of Chowan County. As of Tuesday morning, no other anti-abortion bill has been filed this year.
What abortion restrictions are politically viable?
In a state where Republicans must attract unaffiliated voters to win elections, and often rely on registered Democrats, too, GOP leaders may be reluctant to totally ban abortion. Republicans rank third in North Carolina voter registrations, at 30.3%. The Democrats are at 33.3%, and voters who don’t belong to any political party have 35.7% of registrations. Independent voters are the fastest-growing group of voters in the state.
A survey conducted by Elon University said 62% of independent voters would disapprove if abortion were banned. A Meredith College poll in February said 59% want to keep or loosen the current 20-week law.
Learn more: NC election laws biased against 2.5M independent voters, and favor Republicans, Democrats
The Axios Raleigh news site reported last month that Republican lawmakers in the state House have been debating privately what level of restrictions they will advance. Axios reported the GOP wants a bill that some Democrats would support — several from socially conservative communities in past years backed tighter abortion regulations — so the state House of Representatives will have enough votes to override a near-certain veto from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.
The Republicans have a veto-overriding 30-20 supermajority over the Democrats in the state Senate, and until Tuesday the GOP was one vote short of a supermajority in the House, where the partisan divide was 71-49.
The math in the state House changed on Tuesday when it was made public that Democratic Rep. Tricia Cotham of Mecklenburg County is switching to the Republican Party. This gives the GOP a 72-48 veto-proof majority in that chamber.
Cotham in 2015 criticized a GOP-passed abortion restriction — she said she aborted her first pregnancy because she suffered an incomplete miscarriage and her life was threatened by it. In February, The Assembly magazine reported Cotham said she might support tighter abortion laws but opposed setting it as far down as 13 weeks.
State House Speaker Tim Moore has said he supports setting an abortion ban after the sixth week of pregnancy, the Associated Press reported.
The AP reported state Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger, who is the Republican leader of the Senate, supports putting the ban after the first trimester, or 12th week, of pregnancy.
Five surveys conducted between August and March by university researchers and political advocacy groups report that most North Carolina voters want to keep abortion legal, but have differing opinions on when to impose restrictions.
The individual poll results vary. Here is the gist of the findings:
Between 6% and 12% of voters wanted a total ban.
Between 19% and 35% would ban abortion after conception, but would allow exceptions (such as pregnancy from rape or incest, or if the pregnancy threatens the mother’s life).
One survey said 14% would ban abortion after the fetal heartbeat begins (approximately six weeks). None of the other surveys asked this question.
16% to 18% preferred a ban at 12 weeks; 9% said 15 weeks.
5% to 26% chose a ban at 20 weeks.
22% to 30% said there should be no restrictions.
The surveys were conducted by Elon University, Meredith College, the right-wing John Locke Foundation, the right-wing Carolina Partnership for Reform, and by Differentiators Data on behalf of three anti-abortion groups: The N.C. Faith and Freedom Coalition, Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life American, and the N.C. Values Coalition.
Senior North Carolina reporter Paul Woolverton can be reached at 910-261-4710 and pwoolverton@fayobserver.com.
This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: Bill filed to ban abortion in NC; polls say voters want legal abortion
