Birth rates down in North Dakota, Grand Forks County

Joe Banish, Grand Forks Herald
·2 min read

Jul. 15—GRAND FORKS — Following a period of population growth in North Dakota, birth rates have fallen over the past seven years — a trend experts attribute to a decline in the number of people moving to work in the state's oil industry.

According to data from the North Dakota Department of Health and Human Services, birth rates in the state have declined from a peak of 16.9 per 1,000 in 2016, to 11.62 in 2021, the most recent year of data. Grand Forks County mirrors the trend, declining from its peak of 15.88 in 2014, to 12.26 in 2021.

There were 10,111 births in North Dakota in 2021 — down from 11,352 in 2014 — out of an estimated 2021 population of 779,261.

Both the state and county's birth rates are above the U.S. average of 11.0 per 1,000, as measured by the Centers for Disease Control. The U.S. birth rate increased from 10.9 in 2020, but has declined from a rate of 13.0 in 2010.

Darin Meschke, director of the Division of Vital Records at the North Dakota Department of Health and Human Services, said trends in birth rates mirror fluctuations in the state's oil production, which reached its peak in the mid-2010s.

"We attributed the increase in birth rates to the oil boom, and the increase in people we had coming here from other states," he said. "It kind of went dormant for a little while when oil prices went down."

Two of the counties with the state's highest birth rates — McKenzie and Williams — are located in the heart of the oil-rich Bakken Formation. Birth rates in both counties peaked in 2019, at 43.71 and 37.32 births per 1,000 residents, respectively. They have since declined to a rate of 15.3 and 15.51 in 2021.

Steve Denn, a statistician at the Department of Health, said a newly constructed birthing facility at McKenzie County's hospital that opened in 2022 may help reverse the downward trend.

"Some people that live on the border of North Dakota and Montana were going to Sidney, Montana, to give birth, and now they don't have to," he said. "That should increase McKenzie County's numbers."

North Dakota's birth rate is higher than neighboring Montana and Minnesota, whose rates sit at 10.2 and 11.3, respectively, but is lower than South Dakota's rate of 12.7, according to CDC data.