Bison or bust: Mountain West should pursue North Dakota State if San Diego State bolts

The Mountain West Conference may soon lose one of its marquee members.

San Diego State sent the conference a letter last week indicating that the Aztecs are considering leaving as soon as 2024 and asking for leniency on exit fees, a league official confirmed to the Idaho Statesman on Wednesday, after the news was reported on ESPN, the San Diego Union-Tribune and elsewhere, all citing anonymous sources.

The official also spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to comment on the matter.

According to the Mountain West bylaws, resigning members must pay an exit fee equal to three times the average annual distribution per school if they give one-year notice by June 30. San Diego State would have to pay about $17 million, according to the Union-Tribune.

If San Diego State decides to depart after June 30, the Aztecs would have to pay upward of $34 million to leave the following year or stay for two years and still pay about $17 million.

The Mountain West declined to take action on San Diego State’s request for leniency on the exit fees, the league official said, adding that the presidents of the conference’s schools have to meet before a formal decision is made.

The Aztecs seemingly are hoping to follow in the footsteps of BYU, Utah and TCU, all of which left the Mountain West and landed in Power Five conferences.

The Pac-12 is the conference most likely to add teams in the near future, especially with UCLA and USC leaving to join the Big Ten next year. Reports of the Pac-12’s flirtations with San Diego State have been swirling for months, but no official invitation has been extended.

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San Diego State, the Mountain West and where to turn

Losing San Diego State would be a blow to the conference Boise State has called home since 2011.

The Aztecs’ football team is regularly in the running for a Mountain West title, and the men’s basketball team’s NCAA Tournament run to the national championship game this year earned the conference an estimated $10 million in NCAA distributions over the next six years. That money stays with the conference even if San Diego State leaves.

But if the Aztecs do bolt, the league won’t be without options. It would not even have to look very far outside its regional footprint to find quality athletic programs to add, especially in football.

North Dakota State’s brand is the strongest in the FCS, and it isn’t even close. The Fargodome is also one of the more unique venues in the country.

Just imagine the Bison playing on The Blue and Boise State invading the dome the following year. The Broncos’ first trip to the Fargodome in program history could easily be one of the most watched Mountain West games of the year.

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North Dakota State feels like a program that should have been invited to join the Mountain West years ago. The Bison are cut from the same blue-collar mold as Boise State, Wyoming and Air Force, and there isn’t much more for them to accomplish at the FCS level.

The Bison have won 103 games since 2015 and nine national championships since 2011. The program has also produced 11 NFL Draft picks since 2014, including quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Trey Lance, both of whom were top-three picks.

North Dakota State would have to make the jump to the FBS level, of course, and there could be some growing pains, but James Madison showed last season that FCS programs can compete right away. The Dukes went 8-3 in their first season in the Sun Belt.

Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina and Liberty have also moved up to FBS in recent years.

The Bison’s men’s basketball team also could be a nice addition to the Mountain West. North Dakota State has made four trips to the NCAA Tournament since 2009 as a member of the Summit League.

And North Dakota State has been busy investing in its teams. The football program opened a new $54 million practice facility last year. The Bison have also opened new on-campus venues or made significant facilities upgrades for basketball, volleyball, soccer, wrestling, softball and track teams in recent years.

In all, NDSU has invested $110 million in facilities upgrades over the past decade, according to the university.

Welcoming the state of Montana?

The Mountain West could also add Montana and/or Montana State.

The Grizzlies and Bobcats come with a built-in rivalry game known as the Brawl of the Wild. The winner takes home the Great Divide Trophy. Montana State has won it five of the past six years.

Montana’s football team put together an impressive string of 25 consecutive winning seasons between 1986 and 2011, and has made the FCS playoffs 26 times since 1982. Montana State’s football team went 12-2 last season and made it to the semifinals of the FCS playoffs. The Bobcats have won national championships at three levels: NAIA, Division II and FCS (former I-AA).

Both programs offer the Mountain West value beyond the football field, too.

Montana’s men’s basketball team made the NCAA Tournament five times from 2010 to 2019, and Montana State has made the field of 64 each of the past two seasons.

It’s unlikely that the Mountain West would add three programs because having too many teams without a clear increase in revenue would make everyone’s slice of the pie smaller.

North Dakota State is the obvious choice if the Mountain West chooses to add just one.

The Fargo-Valley City region ranks ranks No. 113 among U.S. TV markets with 265,790 homes, according to the latest Nielsen survey. Missoula — home of the Grizzlies — ranks No. 162 with 130,170 homes. Montana State is in the Bozeman-Butte region, which ranks No. 186 with 81,490 homes.

Boise ranks No. 98 with 330,040 households.

North Dakota State also holds a slight lead over the Montana schools in annual revenue.

The Bison generated $29.3 million in fiscal year 2022, which ranked No. 117 in the country, according to a database maintained by USA Today. Montana brought in $28.9 million and Montana State generated $26.4 million.

None of them are cash cows, but their revenue numbers are not that far from what the bottom half of the Mountain West generated last year. San Jose State generated the least amount of money in the conference, with just over $39 million, according to annual revenue reports. Utah State and New Mexico also brought in less than $45 million in FY ‘22.

San Diego State led the Mountain West in revenue and ranked No. 58 in the country, at $65.9 million. Boise State ranked No. 5 in the conference and No. 68 in the country ($50.6 million).

What about schools already in FBS?

If the Mountain West wanted to add a more established FBS program in a more competitive TV market, it could try to lure UTEP away from Conference USA. That league is vulnerable after losing six members, including defending champion UTSA (Texas San Antonio), to the American Athletic Conference.

El Paso, Texas, ranks No. 91 in the U.S. with 371,730 households. The Miners’ athletic department generated $33.1 in revenue in FY ‘22, which ranked No. 102 in the country, according to USA Today.

None of the aforementioned athletic departments are going to match San Diego State’s revenue or the Aztecs’ national brand. But there is one that has been patiently waiting its chance to show the world what it can do.

If San Diego State leaves, the Mountain West needs to extend an invitation to North Dakota State — even if it’s as a football-only member. The Bison deserve it, and the conference has to find a way to stay ahead of what is a constantly shifting landscape in college football.

What better way to do that than give the most dominant FCS program the chance to prove it can compete against the best teams in the country?