BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes Predicts $10,000 BTC in 2019
In the most recent issue of the BitMEX newsletter, CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that the $10,000 Bitcoin will return this year. Hayes ties federal reserve inflation rates to the last bull run in Bitcoin, and thinks the Fed’s recent decision to halt interest rate hikes will predicate the next one.
Monetary Policy to Play Huge Role in Bitcoin’s Return to $10K
He justifies his prediction by saying, in part:
But things are a changin’. The Fed couldn’t stomach a 20% correction in the SPX. In the recent Fed minutes, the dot plot now shows now rate increases for the rest of 2019. The Fed will start reinvesting its runoff in the third quarter. We are only a hop, skip, and a jump away from an expanding Fed balance sheet.
US monetary policy is only part of his prediction. He’s also look at moves by the Chinese central bank.
Beijing knows China must rebalance its economy away from credit-fueled fixed asset investment. However, Xi must not have the political cojones to push this sort of painful change through. Therefore, the PBOC said “fuck it” to any attempt to reign in credit growth. The two most important central banks are creepin’ back into a super easy credit regime.
Hayes thinks it’ll only take a few important shifts in the economy to kick off boom times again. He thinks cryptocurrency will be the last to “feel the love.” The tech sector is scheduling some major IPOs, and these, Hayes thinks, will precede a boom in crypto markets.
Crypto will be the last asset class to feel the love. Too many people lost too much money, in too short a time period, to immediately Fomo back into the markets.
