U.S. slams Russian troop moves in Belarus as Ukraine crisis deepens

Russia’s latest troop deployment to Belarus represents a hostile development in the ongoing dispute over the future of Ukraine, senior State Department officials said Tuesday, as U.S. and European officials ramped up diplomatic and economic pressure on Moscow.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and the two agreed to meet later this week in Geneva, after Blinken visits Ukraine and Germany. Blinken “stressed the importance of continuing a diplomatic path to de-escalate tensions surrounding the deeply troubling Russian military build-up in and near Ukraine,” according to a State Department readout of the call.

Meanwhile, Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, indicated that his government would consider halting the controversial Russia-Germany Nord Stream 2 energy pipeline if Russia once again invades Ukraine, as Western observers fear.

The overall picture for Ukraine appears grim, as diplomatic appeals and threats of sanctions have yet to convince Russian leader Vladimir Putin to take an invasion off the table. U.S. officials say they do not know whether Putin has made up his mind about another incursion into Ukraine — which he first invaded in 2014 — but the signs are not reassuring.

“Our view is this is an extremely dangerous situation,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters at a news briefing Tuesday. “We’re now at a stage where Russia could at any point launch an attack in Ukraine.”

Russia, which has already amassed tens of thousands of troops near various parts of its border with Ukraine, has been sending troops to Belarus in recent days, supposedly to conduct military exercises. Belarus’ dictator, Alexander Lukashenko, is an ally of Putin. U.S. officials are not buying the Russian explanation, noting that it gives Putin another staging ground from which to attack Ukraine.

“This is neither an exercise nor normal troop movement,” the senior State Department official said on a call with reporters. “It is a show of strength designed to cause or give false pretext for a crisis as Russia plans for a possible invasion. And let’s be clear: It’s extremely dangerous.”

Belarus and Russia often conduct military drills together, and announced plans late last year for more in the first months of 2022.

But a second senior State Department official said in a separate briefing that Putin appeared to be looking for payback from Lukashenko for supporting the Belarusian leader as he’s faced an opposition movement and increasing isolation from the West. The positioning of Russian forces in Belarus gives Putin greater capacity to attack Ukraine, and it could turn into a long-term deployment, the second official warned.

The second official noted that proposed changes to Belarus’ constitution could pave the way for Russia to garrison troops and perhaps even nuclear-related forces in Belarus. Lukashenko may acquiesce to Russian demands, believing he needs Putin’s backing to stay in power.

“He knows that he doesn’t get that support for free,” the second official said of the Belarusian leader.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield, speaking at a Washington Post Live event, said the Belarus deployment shows Russia is “making moves that would suggest that they have plans to invade.”

Thomas-Greenfield also addressed reports that Russia has begun emptying out its embassy in Kyiv, warning: “Any actions we have seen that the Russians have taken that may indicate that they’re moving forward will cause us to ramp up our efforts, as well.”

A State Department spokesperson said that the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv “is currently not under any authorized or ordered departure and Foreign Service officers may bring accompanying family members.“ That could change if tensions escalate; U.S. embassies routinely practice evacuation runs and are supposed to constantly evaluate risk factors. The U.S. Embassy in Moscow has, for a variety of reasons, been whittled down to a skeletal staff in recent years.

The senior State Department official stressed that the U.S. and its allies are determined to push ahead with diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions and pressure Putin to pull back his forces. The Kremlin has made its own demands, including that NATO pull back its presence in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, and that Ukraine and Georgia be permanently barred from joining the military alliance.

Among the U.S. officials who visited the region in recent days was CIA Director William Burns, who went to Kyiv to consult with intelligence counterparts and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy last Wednesday, a U.S. official familiar with the issue said, confirming earlier reports.

Intense diplomatic discussions among the various parties over the past week have had limited effect, with the Russians writing the effort off as a “dead end.” The fact that Lavrov will meet with Blinken, likely on Friday, “suggests that perhaps diplomacy is not dead,” the senior official said. The same official added, however, that “it’s still too early to tell if the Russian government is genuinely interested in diplomacy.”

U.S. officials have stressed that they are coordinating their moves with European allies, as well as with Ukraine’s government. But it is not entirely clear whether all of America’s allies are entirely in lockstep with Washington on ways to punish Putin if the conflict is not resolved.

While European Union leaders have promised that Putin will face “massive consequences” if he invades Ukraine, analysts say much could come down to what tactics Putin intends to deploy. Already, there have been cyberattacks against Ukraine which Kyiv has blamed on Russia. U.S. officials also repeatedly have said they suspect Putin will try to stage an event that he will use as a justification to invade.

For some European countries, a move against Russia could be economically costly. Among those nations is Germany; its Nord Stream 2 pipeline with Russia has long faced bipartisan criticism in the United States, and the Russian threat against Ukraine has once again shone a spotlight on the project.

Scholz, the German chancellor, was pressed about the issue during a news conference Tuesday with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. In what gave some Russia critics hope that Germany will reconsider the pipeline, Scholz said its future may have to be discussed — though he framed his remarks in the context of a Russian military invasion.

“It is clear that there will be a high cost and that all this will have to be discussed if there is a military intervention against Ukraine,” Scholz said.

Hans Von Der Burchard contributed to this report.