Payroll service predicts 114,000 jobs added in July

The payroll service ADP estimates that 114,000 private-sector jobs were added last month, up 14,000 from its earlier estimate.

In June, the economy added essentially zero jobs, and in May only 25,000 jobs were added, leaving more than 14 million Americans officially unemployed. (Millions more are out of work but are no longer looking for a job.)

But The Wall Street Journal reminds us that "ADP's track record in predicting the government jobs report is not all that hot"--and that, in the larger scheme of things, 114,000 is still a very low number. Economists also predicted that more than 100,000 jobs would be added in June, only to be proven wrong when the official numbers came out.

The consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, meanwhile, said that layoffs would reach a 16-month high in July as private companies shed employees. Add those two reports to government figures that show consumer spending dropped in June and you've got one glum picture of a stalled recovery.