Blue Jackets: What does Johnny Gaudreau do for 'reset' plan? Can Laine still re-sign?
The rumors began to swirl in the afternoon.
While the New Jersey Devils, Philadelphia Flyers and New York Islanders took turns being named “front-runners” to land dynamic Calgary Flames forward Johnny Gaudreau on Wednesday, the Blue Jackets embarked on a mission nobody outside Nationwide Arena believed was possible.
Then the bombshell landed.
Reports that Gaudreau would sign with the Jackets began leaking out around dinner time in Columbus and the team’s “roster reset” plan suddenly got a massive jolt. The deal is for seven years and pays Gaudreau an average of $9.75 million annually, a number that will count against the Jackets’ NHL salary cap total.
It’s a big number and stands counter to what Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen preached about just one day earlier, telling reporters that star free agents are the quickest way to enter the kind of salary-cap ‘squeeze’ a number of his peers now face.
“You’ve got to be careful when you talk about open cap space, because we not only need to look at this year, but we have to look into the future and what contracts are coming up and all that, so it’s not as simple as it may look,” Kekalainen said Tuesday. “You don’t get free agents from the UFA market for one year. So, when you add somebody like that from the UFA market and you add the dollars and add the term, then all of a sudden you get squeezed with cap. And you see what that does around the league.”
A day later, the same guy who issued those sentiments forked over $13.75 million in annual cap space to sign former Calgary Flames teammates Erik Gudbranson — a 30-year old stay-at-home defenseman who agreed to a four-year deal worth $16 million — and Gaudreau, who will make $68.25 million on this deal.
So much for cap conservatism.
Following the Gaudreau signing, Kekalainen said his moves Wednesday didn't take the Blue Jackets out of the bid to re-sign star forward Patrik Laine, a 24-year old restricted free agent who will command a pricey cap charge on any extension.
Is the Blue Jackets' plan to ‘reset’ their roster over?
Kekalainen will probably say it has ascended into a new phase.
Outside analysts may agree, especially if they do re-sign Laine without losing too much talent in trades to make it possible. Any team with Gaudreau and Laine up front — a pair of high-powered scorers — and Zach Werenski as its top offensive defenseman should be considered at least an outside contender for the playoffs.
Throw in captain Boone Jenner, Jakub Voracek, Gustav Nyquist, Cole Sillinger and a wave of young forwards vying for NHL minutes, and the Blue Jackets may soon become a formidable team to face. And that’s not to mention center Jack Roslovic, forward Alexandre Texier, young defenseman Adam Boqvist plus goalie Elvis Merzlikins.
Kekalainen’s 'reset' plan now might transform into a playoff hunt as soon as next season. That shouldn't be an overstatement considering how the Jackets overachieved last season in the eyes of most prognosticators, especially if Laine returns. If so, Kekalainen’s quest to win the Stanley Cup will get a boost of urgency too. That was his main reason for hatching a retooling plan at the trade deadline in 2021 and then spinning off the likes of Seth Jones, Nick Foligno, David Savard and Cam Atkinson.
“Johnny Gaudreau is a superstar in the National Hockey League, and we couldn’t be happier to welcome him to the Columbus Blue Jackets family,” Kekalainen said in a release. “He is an elite player with great character that makes the players around him better. We are thrilled to add a player of his caliber to our group. This is an exciting day for our franchise, our fans and the city of Columbus.”
What are the Blue Jackets getting in Johnny Gaudreau?
If there’s a drawback, it’s the fact Gaudreau turns 29 in August and the Jackets just signed him to a seven-year contract worth a ton of money.
The NHL continues to skew younger and faster, which has sent numerous forwards the past 10-plus years off a proverbial cliff in their careers when they reach age 30. Gaudreau is also just 5 feet 9, 165 pounds and his stature was a source of postseason discontent in Calgary until this year, when he posted 3-11-14 in 13 playoff games.
The list of positives with Gaudreau is lengthier and starts with six invites to play in the NHL All-Star game. He was also voted a first team NHL All-Star at left wing last season and Gaudreau has a “point-per-game" career scoring line of 209-399-608 in 601 games. He also racked up jaw-dropping numbers in the final year of his contract with Calgary, including those 115 points and a career-high +64 plus/minus number that was boosted by one of the league’s top forward lines.
Gaudreau’s biggest skill is playmaking, but he's not shy shooting the puck. He’s a true dual-threat in the offensive zone who makes coaches rave and opposing goalies sweat, which is a combination the Blue Jackets haven’t had since Artemi Panarin from 2017-2019. Gaudreau is also a force on the power play, compiling 46 goals, 125 assists and 171 points on the man-advantage since breaking into the NHL in 2014-15.
Where will Johnny Gaudreau slot into the Blue Jackets’ lineup?
It’s hard to imagine Gaudreau playing anywhere but left wing on the top line, where he skated with the Flames.
That’s also the spot Laine prefers with a right-handed shot that’s always loaded for one-timers. Laine, however, spent significant time on his strong side at right wing during even-strength last season and didn’t shift to the left wing until opposing players were sent to the penalty box.
Gaudreau, a left-handed shot, also plays the left-wing wall on power plays, so coach Brad Larsen and associate coach Pascal Vincent — who coordinates the Jackets’ power play — will need to sort that out.
Voracek played the right-wing wall on the Jackets’ top unit last season, so it will be interesting to see where Gaudreau slots into the 1-3-1 power-play setup — assuming all three forwards remain Blue Jackets.
Larsen may also need to pair Gaudreau at even strength with Jenner at the center spot, putting him on a line with the team’s most responsible two-way pivot. Sillinger could be an option, too, after he made big gains on the defensive side as a rookie.
Can the Blue Jackets re-sign Patrik Laine and stay under the salary cap?
In short, it’s going to take a trade. Maybe two.
According to Cap Friendly, the Blue Jackets began Wednesday with almost $17 million in cap space on a 24-man roster that would need to be pared by one to open the season.
That’s a lot of wiggle room.
Subtracting the combined $13.75 million for Gaudreau and Gudbranson, they’re down to $3.17 million under the league’s $82.5 million ceiling for 2022-23.
To put that in perspective, that amount is less than half of what it would cost for the Jackets to retain Laine on the $7.5 million qualifying offer he received Monday. It might also be about one-third of the Finnish goal-scorer's cap hit on a multi-year extension.
Trading forward Gustav Nyquist, 32, would clear $5.5 million in cap space for this season, dealing forward Oliver Bjorkstrand — who has led the Blue Jackets in scoring the past two years — would carve out another $5.4 million over the next four years, and those two combined with the current available space would give Kekalainen about $13 million to get Laine’s deal done.
It would also take a pair of underrated top-six wingers off the roster.
The Blue Jackets could also create some breathing room simply by assigning Brendan Gaunce ($762,500), Carson Meyer ($750,000) and/or Gavin Bayreuther ($750,000) to the Cleveland Monsters of the American Hockey League.
There's no way to sign Laine without pruning the roster, but it can be done.
How much better are the Blue Jackets with Johnny Gaudreau?
They should be considerably better with a guy who piled up 115 points in 82 games last season. Gaudreau also finished with 99 points in 2018-19 and typically contributes around a point per game.
He's also dealt with some inconsistency issues in eight-plus seasons, as evidenced by his 18-40-58 in 70 games during the pandemic-shortened 2019-20 campaign and 19-30-49 during a 56-game slate in 2020-21.
Gaudreau's 115 points last season was second only to Edmonton Oilers superstar Connor McDavid and was, by far, a career-high number. Gaudreau will be hard-pressed to approach that lofty total with the Blue Jackets, who don’t have a center quite like his main pivot in Calgary, Elias Lindholm. The Jackets also don’t have a power forward like Matthew Tkachuk to create space for Gaudreau and fill the role of on-ice bodyguard.
Perhaps that's why Kekalainen was so adamant about increasing the Jackets' toughness this offseason, first trading for gritty forward Mathieu Olivier and then overpaying to land Gudbranson.
Columbus, however, does have an assortment of young forwards who could mix well with Gaudreau and they might learn a thing or two from playing with one of the NHL’s most dangerous scorers. Imagine the tricks that Kent Johnson, the fifth overall pick by the Jackets in 2021, may learn from Gaudreau — a similarly-built winger.
How many additional scoring chances will Laine get with Gaudreau throwing cross-ice dimes his way? How much better will Sillinger become, after scoring 16 goals as the NHL’s youngest player last season?
Prior to signing Gaudreau, Kekalainen said offense wasn’t the Blue Jackets’ biggest problem in 2021-22. Preventing goals, he said, was a much bigger problem.That was part of his reasoning for signing Gudbranson.
Hours later, after landing the biggest fish on the free-agent market, it's reasonable to assume the Gaudreau move was partly to help the Jackets outscore their defensive issues.
Time will provide that answer. Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets and their fans are basking under a surprising NHL spotlight now shining on Columbus.
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This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Columbus Blue Jackets analysis: Gaudreau signing, Laine extension
