Will Boise get wintry weather for Thanksgiving? Here’s what a meteorologist has to say

November is in full swing, and before we know it, family members will be flying into town, and we’ll be setting the table for a Thanksgiving feast.

With Thanksgiving just a few weeks away, those traveling or who have loved ones visiting may wonder what the weather forecast is around the holiday.

It’s too early for a precise forecast, but there’s certainly a chance that snow could be in the forecast for Boise.

“The eight- to 14-day outlook, which starts to cover Thanksgiving, is showing near normal temperatures and slightly elevated chances of above-normal precipitation,” Spencer Tangen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Boise, told the Idaho Statesman.

The average high temperature for Boise on Thanksgiving is 45 degrees, while the average low is 30 degrees, meaning if any snow were to fall, it would have to be in the early morning hours when the temperature is coldest.

There’s a better chance for Idaho’s higher elevations to see snow on Thanksgiving. McCall has already received its first inch of snowfall this season.

“October 26 was (McCall’s) first snow for this year. I think it’s mostly melted, though it’s probably not quite locked into snow-covered ground up there yet,” Tangen said. “Getting into later in the season, they’ll persistently have snow on the ground for most of the winter.”

Fall has been warmer but wetter than normal for Boise, with 1.24 inches of rain falling in the City of Trees, about half an inch more than average.

Boise is also due for a snowy Thanksgiving.

“Going back 70 years in Boise, we’ve had some kind of snow, either snow falling or snow on the ground already, 11 times out of the 70,” Tangen said. “So about 15% of the time, there’s either snow on the ground or it’s snowing on Thanksgiving.”

When does it typically first snow in Boise?

Although Boise hasn’t seen snow yet, the average date the city sees snowfall is quickly approaching.

The average first snowfall in Boise is Nov. 22, just a day before Thanksgiving this year. Additionally, three of the past four years have seen Boise receive measurable snowfall before Thanksgiving, with the outlier being 2021, when it didn’t snow until Dec. 9.

A more precise Thanksgiving forecast

It’s slightly too early for the National Weather Service to provide an accurate Thanksgiving forecast, with most models forecasting 10 days out.

“Ten days out, sometimes the models can start to get a decent idea of what’s going to happen,” Tangen said. “It kind of depends on the pattern; if it’s a stormy pattern, then it can take five days out or even a day or two less than that to really get a good idea of the pattern to expect.

“But if we’re expecting quiet weather,” he continued, “basically if we have a high pressure moving overhead, sometimes the models can accurately predict that seven to 10 days out.”