Bolsonaro, Lula Retool Campaign Game Plans on Eve of Brazil Vote

(Bloomberg) -- Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro is on the defensive after recent campaign blunders and a violent showdown between police and one of his most vocal supporters gave ammunition to his leftist challenger ahead of a tight runoff election on Oct. 30.

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There have been so many setbacks over the past 10 days that the euphoria among Bolsonaro’s campaign staff sparked by his stronger-than-forecast performance in the first round of the vote has all but dissipated by now, according to a presidential adviser familiar with the situation.

The missteps also translated into loss of momentum for the incumbent in opinion surveys. Major polls published this week showed the former army captain stagnating with about 47% of valid votes, and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva winning with around 53%. But the leftist leader still faces a larger risk of seeing part of his supporters failing to show up on election day, as shown by a Quaest poll published Wednesday.

At Bolsonaro’s campaign headquarter, worried managers are now juggling their time between much-needed damage-control actions and the planning of offensive strategies against Lula, the adviser said, asking for anonymity to discuss internal matters. Their main concern, the adviser added, is to shield the president’s image in segments of the population he has been struggling to win over: women and the poor.

Bolsonaro sought to reach out to low-income voters earlier this week with a trip to Bahia, a state in the impoverished northeastern region which Lula took by a landslide on Oct. 2. On Wednesday, the incumbent is visiting the battleground state of Minas Gerais, where he obtained the support of the re-elected governor and several mayors who are working to reverse Lula’s lead there.

Read More: Battle for Key Minas Gerais State Heats Up Before Runoff Vote

Later in the week, he’ll travel to Rio de Janeiro to prepare for an all-or-nothing televised debate organized by Globo TV, with the potential to reach dozens of millions of Brazilians just two days before the vote.

Lula, meanwhile, has scrapped scheduled visits to far-flung areas of Brazil, a continent-sized nation, and will remain in Sao Paulo, a state that’s home to more than 20% of the electorate and where he suffered an unexpected and resounding defeat in the first round.

Read More: Lula Losing Brazil’s Biggest State Forces Urgent Campaign Rejig

Instead of participating in campaign rallies and large public events, however, Lula is working to boost his online presence through live social media broadcasts, as well as interviews to podcasts and local radios, according to two advisers familiar with the plan. The strategy, widely used by Bolsonaro since his 2018 campaign, is seen as effective to communicate with Brazilians who are beyond the reach of social media groups supportive of the former president.

Riffle Shots and Grenades

While Lula’s campaign has made its fair share of mistakes so far in the race – underestimating a strong anti-Workers’ Party sentiment in Sao Paulo and refusing to detail economic plans, among them – it’s Bolsonaro and his team who have committed a surprising number of blunders in the final stretch of the race.

It all started two weeks ago with a video in which Bolsonaro talks about a visit to a group of “very pretty 14- or 15-year-old” Venezuelan migrants in a poor Brasilia neighborhood, suggesting they were prostitutes. So large was the backlash that the president was forced to address the issue in a number of occasions, saying his words had been “taken out of context in bad faith.”

Then a couple of proposals by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes and his team to free up budget resources for social spending emerged this week, risking the ire of middle-class voters who benefit the most from current rules. Guedes and Bolsonaro were quick to disavow the plans, which included ending pension and public sector wage increases tied to inflation and scrapping income tax deductions related to health and education spending. The economy chief even said that the release of such ideas was the work of members of Lula’s party “infiltrated” in the government.

Yet nothing was so damning to Bolsonaro as a shocking confrontation between federal police and Roberto Jefferson, a former party chief who had become an outspoken supporter of the president. Jefferson was already under house arrest for making threats against the Supreme Court, an usual target of the incumbent and his allies. On Sunday, he shot a riffle and lobbed grenades at police carrying orders to detain him for violating the terms of his home confinement.

Two officers were wounded before he was brought into custody.

Read More: Bolsonaro Stalls in Polls After Ally Clashes With Police

Bolsonaro has since been trying to distance himself from Jefferson, saying they are not friends and whoever goes against the police is a criminal. Yet local markets sold off on the news, anticipating its negative impact on the president’s reelection chances and also worried about prospects of post-election violence in the country.

Lula has since started using the episode to claim that Bolsonaro’s pro-gun stance and bellicose rhetoric encouraged the violent confrontation.

Regional Lieutenants

With Lula huddled in Sao Paulo, key allies were dispatched to personally represent him in crucial regions: Senator Simone Tebet, who endorsed him after finishing third in the race, received the mission to neutralize Bolsonaro’s inroads in Minas Gerais, the second most populous state, after Sao Paulo.

Three allied senators who were elected to represent the Northeast were sent to the region to participate in rallies and public events on behalf of the leftist leader.

Former Environment Minister Marina Silva, meanwhile, will focus on public events in the cities of Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, while former Sao Paulo Governor Geraldo Alckmin, Lula’s running mate, was given the mission to shift votes elsewhere in the state and also in some cities of Minas Gerais.

Lula or Bolsonaro: Who’s Backing Who in Brazil’s Election Runoff

Bolsonaro has adopted a similar strategy, sending his running mate, General Walter Braga Netto, to solo trips across the country. First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro also has her own agenda, which mostly consists of holding meetings with women in a bid to reduce the former army captain’s high rejection rating among female voters.

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