Bolsonaro Softens Rhetoric in Key Independence Day Rallies

(Bloomberg) -- President Jair Bolsonaro toned down his rhetoric during Brazil’s Independence Day celebrations, seeking to woo undecided voters and reinvigorate his campaign less than a month before general elections.

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Government faithful packed the oceanside drag along Rio de Janeiro’s Copacabana beach on Wednesday as well as Brasilia’s esplanade of ministries, a large thoroughfare that connects the presidential palace, congress and the top court with the rest of the capital.

During his second speech of the day, the typically sharp-tongued president avoided naming his political rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva directly and tried to burnish an image of God-fearing, corruption-fighting leader that will spur economic growth.

“I am not very polite, I curse, but I am not a crook,” he yelled to the crowds in Copacabana from a sound truck, which earlier blared Brazilian country music and campaign jingles.

With the Oct. 2 vote quickly approaching, the right-wing leader is struggling to close the gap behind Lula, the race’s front-runner, and convince the moderate Brazilians who will ultimately decide who wins this hyper-polarized election. His recent attacks on the country’s top court and electoral authorities have turned off many voters who, according to opinion polls, are tired of the country’s bellicose political climate.

The absence of violent protests and Bolsonaro’s moderate rhetoric provided a relief to investors, who were closely watching the rallies as gauge of potential post-election turmoil. While Brazilian markets were closed in observance of the holiday, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, the largest exchange-traded fund of Brazilian stocks, erased early losses to rise as much as 1.7%.

Read More: Brazil Deploys 10,000 Cops in Capital Before Bolsonaro Rally

‘Helping His Cause’

Earlier in the day, Bolsonaro and his backers gathered in the capital Brasilia to watch a military parade and join in an ensuing rally. Both concluded peacefully, with thousands of police deployed to guard the Supreme Court, the main target of the president’s fiery rhetoric, and other ministries.

The president’s supporters in Brasilia carried signs demanding a military intervention and a new constitution. Some asked for the impeachment of top Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who’s authorized a series of investigations involving the president and his allies for allegedly spreading disinformation about the safety of Brazil’s electronic voting system.

Carlos Melo, a political scientist at the Insper University in Sao Paulo, says a softer tone was likely used to avoid further legal trouble. “He tried to help his cause; he didn’t lose votes but he didn’t win them either,” he said.

In recent weeks, Bolsonaro has stalled in opinion polls. A PoderData survey released Wednesday showed he would receive 37% of the votes on Oct. 2, versus 44% for Lula.

Seizing the Celebration

The former army captain is banking on the show of support in the country’s main cities to breath fresh life into his campaign. On Tuesday, he called on his followers to participate in the events, promising they would be unlike anything “ever seen in Brazil.”

“True patriots, with green and yellow in their hearts, need to come out today,” said Edward Miranda, 66, a retired public servant, in Rio de Janeiro. “Are there things that can be improved? Yes. But that’s why we need to come today to show our support so that God willing Bolsonaro wins another four years.”

Opposition parties have criticized the president’s strategy, saying it turns a traditional celebration into campaign rallies. This year’s holiday held particular significance as it marked 200 years since Brazil’s independence from Portugal, and presidents of Portuguese-speaking countries were in attendance at the parade in Brasilia.

In Rio de Janeiro, construction cranes dangled giant Brazilian flags over Avenida Atlantica where crowds gathered. Helicopters and military jets zoomed through the sky. In his speech, Bolsonaro implied electing his opponent would set the nation on a course similar to Argentina, Nicaragua or Venezuela.

“These type of people need to be eradicated from public life,” he said, referring to Latin America’s leftist leaders.

Concern that Bolsonaro would mimic former US President Donald Trump and try to overturn the election’s result in case he’s defeated continue to haunt electoral authorities, and even investors who have started to position themselves for the possibility -- still seen as very unlikely -- of post-election turmoil akin to the Jan. 6 riots in the US Capitol.

Read More: Trump-Like Election Threat Becoming a Tail Risk for Brazil

Before the days events kicked off, Bolsonaro described the years of 1964 and 2016, when the military stagged a coup and when Dilma Rousseff was impeached, respectively, as “difficult moments” Brazilians have been through.

“History can repeat itself,” he said after a prayer in the presidential palace, in remarks that were broadcast on social media. “Good has always won over evil.”

(Updates story with Bolsonaro’s speech in Rio de Janeiro starting in second paragraph.)

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