In booming Treasure Valley, one city saw its population drop in ’22. It may surprise you
Idaho has come to be associated with growth, topping the charts as the fastest-growing state in 2021.
It might come as a surprise, then, that the U.S. Census Bureau recently announced that the state’s largest city actually saw a slight population decline in 2022.
Boise’s population fell by 1,387 people — just 0.6% — to make its new total 236,634, according to the bureau’s new data, released last week.
The bureau said its analysts believe that high housing costs in Boise “forcing households with children to seek more affordable housing in nearby communities” could be to blame.
Surrounding Treasure Valley cities kept on growing in 2022, according to the Census Bureau. Meridian saw 3.2% growth (3,962 people), Nampa saw 4.2% (4,426 people) and Caldwell also saw 3.2% (2,039 people).
“The data does show that the household size in Boise is decreasing ever so slightly, and the household size in Meridian is increasing ever so slightly,” said Austin Miller, lead planner for COMPASS (Community Planning Association of Southwest Idaho).
But Boise could see a spike again soon. The Census Bureau’s report noted that the city has a significant number of multifamily housing in the planning or construction phases. As those projects get completed, they will provide more homes for transplants and others.
The Census Bureau also pointed out that the city is looking to annex land along its southern border near the planned $15 billion Micron fabrication plant. The new subdivisions in that area could increase Boise’s population down the road.
1.1 M people predicted in Boise area by 2050
The COMPASS population count for Boise in 2022 did not find the same result as the Census Bureau, according to Miller. Using slightly different data, agency analysts found an increase of almost 2,000 people in the City of Trees and a total population of 243,570.
Miller said the differences between COMPASS and Census numbers are relatively small, and he expects to see Idaho’s capital have small, steady population increases in the future.
The agency has predicted that nearly 1.1 million people will live in Ada and Canyon counties by 2050 — about 300,000 more residents than in 2022 in the fast-growing Treasure Valley.
“Ultimately, so long as (Boise) is building a similar amount of multifamily housing units and construction timelines stay generally similar, you shouldn’t see a big spike one way or the other,” Miller said.
As a whole, Idaho saw an additional 25,648 residents in 2022, a 1.9% growth that made it the second-fastest growing state. The tiny town of Paul in Minidoka County was the fastest-growing municipality by percentage increase, and the largest numerical growth was in Nampa.
Star was No. 2 in terms of growth by percentage, as the once-sleepy town west of Boise along State Street reached almost 15,000 people. Star has seen explosive growth, with its population more than doubling over the past decade.
