Border authorities report a steep drop in January migrant encounters

EL PASO, Texas (KTSM) — The number of unauthorized migrant crossings across the U.S.-Southern Border took a steep dive in January, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection numbers.

CBP reported a 50 percent drop, with 124,220 encounters in January compared to 249,735 in December.

Experts say fluctuation in border migration is normal due to cyclical trends.

The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) Director of Law & Behavior Victor Manjarrez said: “We’ve typically seen in the last 35 years or so, January is a drop-off month…and it’s usually due to the holidays, religious events that are occurring in January. In the middle of January or so the numbers start to pop up a little bit.”

According to Dr. Manjarrez, while the drop in encounters between December 2023 to January 2024 was significant, “it’s still higher than normal trends in January.”

“I don’t see February hitting a number of 300,000, which I have never seen in 35 years, but I do expect those numbers to start popping up where they were before between 200 to 225,000 arrests in a 29-day period,” said Dr. Manjarrez.

In addition to holidays, another factor for the drop in migrant encounters is simply weather conditions.

Dr. Manjarrez said: “I expect March and April because that’s what we always see, the weather starts to warm up and we start looking at other conditions globally, environmental changes globally in terms of natural disasters.”

As border authorities monitor the crossing numbers, democrats and republicans on Capitol Hill continue to battle for border security funds.

“I do believe the numbers are going to continue to increase. I know that the Administration right now is working with Mexico to help curtail that flow… I hope it changes and they put a bigger focus on that because it will alleviate some of the strains that we experience here in the city,” said Dr. Manjarrez.

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