Both sides of abortion debate focus on Georgia elections as Roe v. Wade may be overturned

The leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would, if adopted, overturn Roe v. Wade, may shake up state-level elections in Georgia and across the country.

"Who runs our local government will be instrumental in deciding who can access abortion," said Allison Coffman, director of Amplify Georgia Collaborative and a board member for ARC-Southeast, an abortion fund.

If the legality of abortion returns to states, voters from both sides may turn out to take advantage of the new opportunity or attempt to protect current rights. In Georgia, a Roe repeal would likely lift the court stay currently prohibiting the state's "fetal heartbeat" abortion law from being enacted.

"It's a matter of whether Republicans or Democrats are most successful in turning out their voters because there are no pro-choice Republicans in the General Assembly, the Democrats are almost all pro-choice," said Melita Easters, executive director of the Georgia WIN list, an organization that works to elect pro-choice Democratic women.

Read More: Georgia Republicans applaud possible repeal of Roe v. Wade, Democrats call for federal protections

Abortion law changes ahead: Here's what would happen in Georgia if Roe v. Wade is overturned

The Roe v. Wade ruling is not particularly controversial in Georgia. A poll conducted at the University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal Constitution in January showed that 68% of registered voters in Georgia did not want Roe v. Wade to be overturned, including 90% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans. The Georgia fetal heartbeat law, which bans abortion after about six weeks, had a net opposition of 55% in the same poll.

Is abortion an issue at the polls?

Whether people will be energized to vote on abortion, however, is unclear. When asked to rank the most important issue in the state, only 5% of respondents listed abortion. A national YouGov-Economist poll that concluded on May 3 found 72% of respondents listed abortion as very or somewhat important, but just 6% listed it as the most important issue.

In a press conference on May 10, Rep. Nikema Williams, chair of the Democratic Party of Georgia, said she thought the issue would motivate the Democratic base.

"We have a broad coalition of voters who want to preserve abortion rights, across the state, and they're going to be turning out to vote," she said. "So this issue is definitely on the ballot, and I know I will be reminding people every day between now and election day that every Republican running for office in Georgia is running on a record to overturn Roe v. Wade."

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Related: Federal judge strikes down Georgia abortion restrictions

For Martha Zoller, interim executive director and founding member of the anti-abortion Georgia Life Alliance, the leaked draft was a potential step towards victory.

"What pro-life groups did, including ours, was we focused on electing pro-life representatives so that we would be ready for when Roe was overturned," she said. "So we're prepared to defend life in Georgia."

Zoller was quick to note the draft was just that — a draft — and the final decision may be different. If it is implemented, she expects the ban on abortions after six weeks passed in 2019 and prevented from taking effect by a federal judge, would go into effect.

"I don't think they'll be a special election to ban abortion, quite frankly I don't think we have the votes to do that," Zoller said. "The heartbeat bill was passed with only one vote, and you know, I think we've got to implement the heartbeat bill, see what the impact of that is, before we go any farther."

Easters thinks that if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade women, especially, will turn out to vote for abortion access, even if it currently polls low on voters' priorities. She thinks it will be enough to flip Republican voters.

"There are women who may have been attracted to the Republican Party for various reasons, including economic policy, but now that Roe v. Wade takes away a right they have enjoyed for five - almost five decades, they'll be looking at candidates differently this election cycle," she said. "And I believe we will see a greater turnout among women voters than in recent cycles, even though women voters are already the most reliable of voters."

Zoller agrees that the decision may energize Democratic voters.

"I definitely believe that Democratic voters may be more motivated to vote," she said. "One of the big problems with all the polling up until now is that Republican voters are very motivated to vote in this midterm election and Democrat voters have been kind of lackluster."

More battles ahead on abortion

But Zoller also thinks that her views are more popular than the polling might suggest, pointing to the anti-abortion majority in the Georgia statehouse and views among some Democratic candidates that she thinks are relatively unpopular.

Coffman, with Amplify Georgia Collaborative, thinks that laws like the heartbeat bill have been implemented despite the will of the majority of Georgia voters.

"I think that the voice of the anti-abortion activists is being heard above the voice of the people," she said.

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Georgia currently allows abortion within 20 weeks of gestation, so returning to a six week time limit would be a significant change, according to Coffman. It could also impact surrounding states with stricter rules or fewer clinics.

"We really are this hub, this bright spot in the south for reproductive health," she said.

Coffman thinks local governments can take steps to provide support for people seeking abortions outside the state. But she also said that access is already limited — in 2021, ARC-Southeast provided $800,000 in support to 6,000 people she said.

"These are people we know are already struggling to access care," she said.

Regardless, people on both sides of the issue will continue to try and rally voters to their cause in local, state and federal elections.

"We'll continue to fight it on all fronts," Coffman said.

This article originally appeared on Augusta Chronicle: Abortion advocates, opponents see Roe v. Wade as key issue in election