Bracketology watch: Memphis basketball's NCAA Tournament outlook after loss at Houston
Memphis basketball is, with two weeks left in the regular season, on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
That is according to the overwhelming majority of bracketologists. BracketMatrix.com, which tracks dozens of high-profile (ESPN, CBS Sports, etc.) and lesser known projections, is updated daily. Following its 72-64 loss to top-ranked Houston, the Tigers (20-7, 10-4 AAC) are included on 90 out of 92 brackets − as high as a 6 seed and as low as an 11. Based on the average of the most up-to-date estimates, Memphis would be an 11 seed. This time last year, Memphis was on 70 out of 115 brackets, per Bracket Matrix.
The Tigers (with a NET rating of 41 and a KenPom ranking of No. 36), who are 2-3 in Quad 1 games and 5-3 in Quad 2 games, have four regular-season games left, starting with a road date versus Wichita State on Thursday (6 p.m., ESPN2). Coach Penny Hardaway likes his team's chances of getting to a second straight NCAA Tournament.
“I feel like we’ve done a lot to show who we are,” he said after last week’s loss at Houston. “If they were watching the game today, they saw we had no Kendric Davis (Memphis' leading scorer) and outscored the No. 1 team in the country in the second half. I’m not trying to put a campaign out there. I just hope they don’t judge us from, ‘Oh, they lost to Houston and now we’ve gotta drop ‘em so many spots.’”
Here is a cross-section of where the Tigers stand in the eyes of a variety of bracketologists:
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Joe Lunardi, ESPN
The Tigers' stock actually rose, according to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, after last week's loss to Houston.
Prior to Memphis' short-handed showdown versus the Cougars, Lunardi had the team slotted as the third team under the "last four byes" heading − six spots away from falling out of the field.
Lunardi's updated bracketology, which dropped Monday afternoon, has the Tigers now as the first team in the "last four byes" group, which represents a two-spot bump. Lunardi has Memphis in as a 9-seed facing NC State in Birmingham, Ala., with Alabama and either Alcorn State or Fairleigh Dickinson in the same grouping.
Jerry Palm, CBS Sports
Palm updated his bracket Monday morning. He dropped the Tigers from a 9 seed to a 10 seed. His bracket has Memphis facing Providence in Des Moines, with Baylor and Vermont the other two teams in that quadrant.
Shelby Mast, USA TODAY Sports
Mast's most recent bracketology has Memphis as the second 11 seed. His prediction on Monday is the Tigers will match up with Illinois in Columbus, Ohio, with Iowa State and UC Santa Barbara rounding out that part of the bracket.
Dave Ommen, Bracketville
Ommen, Bracket Matrix's only two-time "Bracket Project" champion, put Memphis in as an 11 seed on his Monday morning bracket. But the Tigers are slightly lower overall seed-wise. Ommen has them as the last team under his "last four byes" heading. He projects Memphis to face San Diego State in Albany, New York, alongside the matchup of Iowa State and Yale.
1-3-1 Sports
1-3-1 Sports' Monday projection has the Tigers in as the second 11 seed. 1-3-1 Sports has been the sixth-most accurate five-year bracketology average among all brackets tracked by Bracket Matrix.
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @munzly.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis basketball bracketology: Tigers' NCAA Tournament outlook
